Power Hour #123 Bearish

Power Hour #123: Breadth Breaks Down: Cut the Losers, Hold the Energy Trade – Thursday 10/8/2026

October 8, 2026 4:39

Tickers Mentioned

FDS HUBS FICO PSX PBR GLW HIMX SKHY SBUX EWZS

Episode Summary

A one-day breadth collapse from 35% to 15% above the 20 SMA triggers a defensive, distribution-flavored session. The hosts break down which OpenAI-hit chip names to cut, why energy is the only confirmed leader worth holding, and the single 20 SMA level that decides whether tomorrow is a buy-everything bounce or a stock-picker's grind.

Key Takeaways

Short-term breadth collapsed: only 15% above 20 SMA
Energy leads rotation, RSPG up 2.77% on the day
OpenAI revenue miss hits GLW, HIMX, SKHY
Continuation leaders FDS, HUBS, FICO ran on thin volume
Stay in control — defensive stock-picker's tape

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Short-term breadth is cracking even as the longer-term tape stabilizes — a classic late-session divergence that demands caution into the bell.

Breadth is contracting fast: % above the 20 SMA collapsed to 15% from 35% yesterday (-20pp), while the 40 SMA ticked up to 24.78% from 22.43% (+2.4pp). Short-term thrust is gone.
Rotation into defense and energy: Energy (RSPG) is the standout, jumping +2.77% on the day to a 0.97 reading (84th percentile). Consumer Staples (RSPS +1.94%) and Utilities also firmed, while Technology (RSPT -1.48%) rolled over.
Character: With Bull 4% at 108 vs Bear 4% at 255 and Bull 9M just 5 against Bear 9M 28, this is a defensive, distribution-flavored day — not a trend day. Index levels are (data unavailable), so lean on breadth and sector tape.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): FDS at $284.57, +4.3%, though RVOL is a thin 0.4 — conviction is light. HUBS $229.13 +4.0% and FICO $704.47 +3.3% round out software strength. Energy names PSX $280.81 +3.4% and PBR $24.79 +3.3% align with the sector rotation.
Best reversal volume: EWZS $16.39 +2.9% on 3.1 RVOL (continuation list) and MMED $19.62 +2.7% on 2.9 RVOL are the only reversal candidates showing real participation; most of the 418 reversal signals are low-conviction ETFs (NUSC, ESML, IWN) drifting flat.
SIP leaders vs failures: The OpenAI revenue miss is the day’s narrative — it’s dragging GLW -2 ($163.21), SKHY -2 ($178.25), and HIMX -2 ($14.09). Positive catalysts: HAE $101.79 (BTIG raised target) and GFUZ $7.60 +2.67% (plasma milestone). SBUX $93.58 slipped on reports of a Chipotle acquisition bid.
Most relevant codes: PLASTICS (ride the energy/staples sector winners) and ABC — Always Be in Control, given the 20-day breadth gut-check.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Trim or close: Chip/electronics exposure tied to the OpenAI headline — HIMX, GLW, SKHY — into weakness; these are fundamental revisions, not noise. If you’re long SBUX, honor stops as the Chipotle-bid story injects uncertainty.
Enter only on confirmation: If energy holds its bid into the close, PSX ($280.81) and PBR ($24.79) are the cleanest sector-aligned continuations. In software, FICO above $704 on a volume uptick is the one to watch — but demand RVOL expansion before committing; today’s leaders ran on thin volume.
Key level: SPY/QQQ/IWM levels are (data unavailable) — I won’t guess. Instead, watch the % above 20 SMA: a close back above 20% would signal today’s flush is a shakeout; a close under 15% confirms broadening distribution into tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

Overnight catalyst: The OpenAI revenue reset is still rippling through the AI-hardware supply chain — expect continued pressure on chips and optical names (GLW, HIMX) at tomorrow’s open. Watch for sympathy follow-through or a reflex bounce.
Setup forming: Energy via PSX above $280.81 is the highest-quality continuation into tomorrow given RSPG’s 84th-percentile momentum. EWZS over $16.39 on sustained volume is a Brazil/emerging-markets reversal worth a watch.
Regime outlook: With short-term breadth bleeding and leadership rotating defensive, stay in control and size down. This is a stock-picker’s tape favoring energy and staples, not a buy-everything environment. The plan for tomorrow is selectivity, not aggression — until % above 20 SMA reclaims higher ground.

Welcome to WaveRider Power Hour, your final hour tactical edge. Let's dive in. Breath just fell off a cliff, 35% to 15% in one session. Shake out or something worse. We've got 60 minutes to decide. Okay, so regime first. Has it shifted today or is this noise? It shifted. Short-term breath collapsed, percent above the 20 SMA went from 35 to 15. A 20 point swing in one day? One day, but here's the thing. The 40 SMA actually firmed to 24.78. Wait, really? So the foundation held. Foundation held? Ruth caved in. That's a short-term flush, not a structural break. Mm-hmm. And bears are outnumbering bulls two to one. Bear 4% at 255 versus bull 4% at 108. So give me the one liner. Defensive distribution flavor day, not a trend day. Right, so if it's distribution, what do we do with 60 minutes left? Give me the playbook. Got first. GLWSKHY IMEX all down roughly 2%. That's the open AI revenue miss? Exactly. And that's a fundamental hit to the chip and optical names, not noise. So we don't hold in hope. You don't hold in hope. GLW at 163.21, IMEX at 14.09. These are revisions. Okay, anything else on the chopping block? SBUX at 93.58. Honor your stops. There's a Chipotle bid report creating real uncertainty. Honor the stop. Got it. Now what do we hold? Energy. PSX at 280.81. Up 3.4%. PBR at 24.79. Up 3.3. And energies the leader today? Stand out. RSPEG up 2.77%. 84th percentile reading. Oh, wow. So money's rotating into the bunker. Out of the tech rooftop into energy and staples. Classic defensive shift. So PSX and PBR hold or add? Hold what you got. Only add on confirmation. If energy holds its bid into the close. Confirmation, not before. Not before. And look, same rule on FICO. Above 704, but it needs RVAL to expand first. Because today's move was thin? Thin volume. Today's leaders ran on air. FDES popped 4.3%. On real buying? On 0.4 RVAL. That's a loud cheer from a half empty stadium. So real move, no conviction. No conviction yet. Skip it. Were there any reversals with actual volume behind them? Only two worth your time. EWZS and MMEB. Everything else was ETF's drifting flat. Okay, so energy's the trade today. Does that carry into tomorrow? Or is this a one day rotation? It carries. The open AI reset is still rippling through the AI hardware supply chain. So GLW, IMEX, stay under pressure at the open? Expect continued pressure. Could get a reflex bounce, but the trends down. And the cleanest setup for tomorrow. PSX at 280.81. That's your highest quality continuation. One level, love it. Anything on the emerging market side? EWZS above 16.39, but only on sustained volume. That's the Brazil reversal to watch. And the regime trip wire? Simple. Reclaim above 20% on the 20 SMA, it was just a shakeout. And if it stays under 15? Then distributions confirmed. And you stay selective. Stock pickers tape, not buy everything. So selectivity over aggression. Until that breath reclaims. Absolutely. Okay, let me lock this in. Cut the chip names broken by the open AI headline, GLWSKHYHIMX. Cut them. Hold only confirmed energy, PSX, PBR. Only confirmed. And let the 20 SMA decide how aggressive we get tomorrow. That's the whole call. Cut what's broken, hold what's confirmed, and watch that 20 SMA at the open. That's the call. See you at the bell tomorrow. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Power Hour, your final hour tactical edge. See you next time.

Chapters

Regime Check

Closing Playbook

Tomorrow's Setup

Next Day Prep #338 Bearish

Try WaveFinder

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Tomorrow’s Early Look

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