Power Hour #116 Neutral

Power Hour #116: Don’t Trust the Bounce: Breadth Craters as Panic Fades – Tuesday 9/29/2026

September 29, 2026 4:27

Tickers Mentioned

Episode Summary

With sixty minutes to the close, panic selling has eased but market breadth has collapsed to just 11% of stocks above their 20-day average. The hosts break down why the bear count drop is exhaustion, not confirmation, and lay out a defensive playbook: hold AMAT, cut Energy and Materials, and watch one number — breadth — to see if tomorrow's bounce is real.

Key Takeaways

Breadth contracting: names above 20 SMA fell to 11% from 21%
Tech and Health Care are the only green sectors into the close
AMAT +4.3% leads chip continuation but volume is light
Trim Energy and Materials; USO hit by Saudi export resumption
Bear 4% collapse hints exhaustion, but stay defensive while oversold

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime is deteriorating intraday — participation is thinning fast even as the panic-bear count collapses, leaving a nervous, two-sided tape.

Breadth contracting hard: % Above 20 SMA cratered to 11% from 21% yesterday (-10.0pp), and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 17.2% from 18.32% (-1.1pp). Fewer names are holding trend into the afternoon.
Sector rotation into safety/quality: Technology (RSPT) is the lone strong leader — rising, 84th percentile, value 1.3 — and Health Care (RSPH) holds firm at 1.8. Everything else is negative: Financials -2.14, Materials -2.09, Utilities -4.08, Energy -1.59 and falling.
Character — choppy, defensive: Bear 4% collapsed to 116 from 276 (selling exhaustion), but with Sentiment 40SMA still Oversold and Bull 9M just 16 vs Bear 9M 5, this is a relief-attempt tape, not a trend day.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): AMAT $507.71, +4.3%, though RVOL is soft at 0.7 — a chip leader extending. Backing it up: FORM $136.16 +4.0% (RVOL 0.6) and QMCO $33.09 +5.4% (RVOL 0.9). CHIPS is carrying the continuation list.
Strongest reversal setup: The Reversal Bullish list is dominated by low-beta ETFs — TDTT $23.21 at RVOL 9.8 and FTGS $38.06 at RVOL 6.7 — a defensive, bond/rate-proxy bid, not aggressive risk-on. Best single-name is INN $5.91 +1.6% (REIT), thinly confirmed.
SIP leaders: COHR $282.38 tagged as an AI catalyst (sentiment +2) but is fading — down 2.96% from the open, so the news pop is being sold. On the tape, USO $149.99 is pressured as Saudi Arabia resumes exports (sentiment -1), reinforcing weak Energy.
Action code of the day — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): With only Tech and Health Care green, concentrate exposure there. Secondary: 2LYNCH on the AMAT/FORM chip continuation — but demand a volume pickup before committing.

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Trim/close into the bell: Energy and Materials longs — RSPG fell -1.43% today to a 0-percentile -1.59, RSPM hit a new low at -2.09. USO‘s Saudi-supply headline caps any bounce; take those off before the close. Also lighten COHR if it can’t reclaim its open near the day’s fade.
Enter only on confirmation: AMAT above $507.71 on a real RVOL surge into the last hour is the cleanest continuation add; FORM over $136.16 is the sympathy play. If RVOL stays under 1.0, keep size small — this is FFM/CRT (controlled risk), not full commitment.
Key level caveat — index data unavailable: SPY, QQQ and IWM prices and SMAs are (data unavailable) today, so I won’t guess levels. Use breadth as your proxy: if % Above 20 SMA stabilizes above 11% into the close, the exhaustion-bounce thesis holds; another leg down in that number means stay defensive and reduce gross.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

Overnight catalyst: Watch oil — Saudi export resumption (per the USO note) pressures crude and Energy names again at tomorrow’s open; expect RSPG to stay heavy unless USO reclaims above ~$150.
Setup forming: AMAT is the name to track — a hold near $507.71 overnight sets up a chip-led continuation if volume returns. Health Care (RSPH ~1.8) is the defensive setup if risk appetite stays weak.
Regime outlook: The Bear 4% collapse (276→116) hints at selling exhaustion, but Oversold 40SMA readings and sub-20% names above their averages say don’t chase. Plan tomorrow as a stock-picker’s tape led by Tech/Health Care, not a broad rally — keep risk controlled (ABC) until breadth expands back above 20%.

Welcome to wave rider power hour your final hour tactical edge. Let's dive in panic selling just collapse from 276 to 116, so why does this market feel worse not better 60 minutes to the bell? Let's go Okay, give me the regime call one line choppy defensive day not a trend Breadth just cratered percent above the 20 day fell to 11% from 21% yesterday Wait a 10 point collapse in one session 10 points in one day But the bear count dropped right 276 down to 116 yeah, but that's selling exhaustion not confirmation Meaning don't trust it Don't trust it yet Sentiments still oversold on the 40 day. It's like a crowded room emptying out even after the fire alarm stops Ha fewer people sticking around to see if it's safe Exactly, okay, so if we can't trust the bounce, what do we actually do in the next hour? Give me the playbook. Start with what you hold AMAT 507 71 up 4.3 percent I like that, but our vols only 0.7. It's a runner leading the pack with nobody cheering Hold it don't had Needs the crowd to show up needs volume right what sectors are even green Two just two technology RSPT 84th percentile and health care at 1.8 That's it That's it concentrate there or don't play. It's a lifeboat with two seats Okay, so what do we cut energy and materials now RSPGs at 1.59 negative 0th percentile materials 2.09 negative printing a new low Before the bell before the bell don't wait and COEH are that had the AI catalyst down 2.96 percent from the open the news pop is being sold not bought light in it Oh, man, so even the good stories getting dumped. That's the tape today anything with a bid is getting hit All right, anything worth entering only on confirmation AMAT above 507 71 with a real R vol search That's your trigger and a sympathy play form over 136.16 but same rule needs the volume what about those big volume spikes? I'm seeing TDT TFTGS Yeah, don't be fooled TDT's R vol is 9.8 FTGS 6.7, but those are bond and rate proxies defensive flows So not risk on not risk on people hiding not buying don't mistake it for confirmation See that's the thing people miss Every time got it tech and health care or nothing last question what changes for tomorrow? Oil Saudi Arabia's resuming exports that precious crude and energy again right at the open So energy stays heavy Unless USO reclaims about $150 it closed near 140 999 so it's right on the line and chips If AMAT holds near 507 71 overnight and volume returns you get a chip lead continuation health care at 1.8 is your fallback if risks stays weak Okay, but what's the one number that flips the script? Breath percent above the 20 day needs to climb back over 11% into the clothes for the exhaustion bounce to hold and if it doesn't Another leg down stay defensive So this is controlled risk control risk not full commitment flashlight and map not a flood lit rally. I love that line It fits the day. All right. Let me bring it home Breath collapse to 11% even as panic faded so tonight's move is a relief attempt not a trend That's it stay concentrated in tech and health care cut energy and materials and don't chase AMAT until volume confirms above 507 71 perfectly said 60 minutes left cut the losers hold the leaders and don't trust the bounce until breath confirms That's the close see you at the bell tomorrow. That's all for today's episode of wave rider power hour your final hour tactical edge. See you next time

Chapters

Regime Check

Closing Playbook

Tomorrow's Setup

Next Day Prep #332 Bearish

Try WaveFinder

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

Tomorrow’s Early Look

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