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Power Hour #100 Bearish

Power Hour #100: Bullish Tag, Bearish Internals: The Closing Bell Playbook – Friday 9/4/2026

September 4, 2026 4:04
Episode Summary
Sentiment still reads Bullish, but breadth is quietly caving — percent above the 20-day fell six points in a single session. The hosts break down what to hold, what to cut, and how to position for a defensive open tomorrow.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth contracting: Above-20SMA down to 13% from 19%
  • Bull 4% collapsed to 138 from 227 yesterday
  • TITN and SNDK lead continuation on strong volume
  • CURV and BBCP earnings beats fading intraday
  • Play defense: ABC and low-risk FFM setups only
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Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime is cooling — internals contracted through the session even as the 4% sentiment tag stays Bullish, so treat this as a risk-off drift, not a trend day.

  • Breadth contracting: % Above 20 SMA fell to 13% from 19% (-6.0pp) and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 45.15% from 48.94% (-3.8pp) — participation is thinning into the close.
  • Sector rotation: Energy (RSPG 2.27) is the lone riser but faded -0.79% today; Materials (RSPM 0.13, 0th percentile) and Industrials (RSPN -1.53) are the weak flank.
  • Character: Choppy-to-reversal — Bull 4% collapsed to 138 from 227 yesterday while Bear 4% held near 67, a clear loss of upside thrust.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation: TITN at $25.92, +13.6% on RVOL 3.5 (2LYNCH) leads; AGCO $134.54 +6.9% and SNDK $1,718.76 +10.5% confirm machinery/storage strength.
  • Strongest reversal: FICO cratered -16.6% to $933.19 on RVOL 2.8 — a bullish-reversal flag only if it reclaims and holds; otherwise it’s a falling knife. DOCU $67.91 +2.9% on RVOL 2.6 is the cleaner long.
  • SIP leaders: Earnings beats CURV (+2) and BBCP (+2, raised guidance) are fading intradayCURV -1.75% and BBCP -1.09% from open, so buyers aren’t following through. NOW flagged -2 on rate pressure.
  • Action code — ABC (Always Be in Control): With breadth down 6pp and SIP beats fading, tighten stops and size down. Pair with FFM (Find Free Money) — only take sub-2.5% risk setups like GPOR (22.8% risk shown).

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • Trim / close: Fading earnings pops CURV and BBCP into the bell — beats that can’t hold the open in a contracting tape rarely gap-and-go tomorrow.
  • Enter on confirmation: TITN (+13.6%, RVOL 3.5) or SNDK (+10.5%) on a hold into the last 30 minutes; keep starter size given the weak breadth backdrop.
  • Key level: SPY/QQQ/IWM prints are data unavailable today — I won’t guess levels. Trade the internals: if % Above 20 SMA slips further under 13% into the close, expect a defensive open tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst watch: Rate sensitivity is the driver — NOW‘s -2 guidance note cites higher rates pressuring growth; watch yields and any Energy follow-through (RSPG still elevated at 2.27).
  • Setup forming: AGCO $134.54 and TITN $25.92 in machinery/ag-retail — a tight hold above today’s close sets a continuation entry; DOCU $67.91 for a software reversal if it clears the day’s high.
  • Regime outlook: Two straight days of narrowing breadth means defense first — stay selective, favor FFM-quality risk, and let strength prove itself before adding size.
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