Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #350: Split Tape: Breadth Improves but Cautious Call Holds Into Fed Week – Friday 10/23/2026

Episode 3506:52

0:006:52

Episode summary

Despite a flat Nasdaq, the Dow and S&P sold off as breadth improved but stayed below the 50% confirmation threshold, keeping the regime Cautious. Energy and security software staged trustworthy breakouts while AI-levered earnings winners got sold, and the team maps levels and scenarios for a loaded Fed, GDP, and mega-cap earnings week. Built from...

Chapter by chapter

A Split Tape Beneath a Flat Headline

Dow and S&P drop while Nasdaq holds flat; SPY breaks below SMA20/50 but breadth ticks up, keeping the regime Cautious.

Earnings Beats Get Sold, Energy and Software Sprint

FIX, BE, AXP and WDC fall despite strong results, while oil-driven energy names and security software post broad, catalyst-backed breakouts.

Levels, Scenarios, and a Loaded Fed Week

Watchlist levels for CRWD, SLB, LNG and APA, bullish/bearish SPY scenarios, and how oil, yields, and FOMC/GDP/earnings tie into next week's plan.

Key points

  • Breadth improved to 47.9% above the 40-day but stayed under the 50% confirmation line, keeping the regime Cautious rather than bullish.
  • Strong earnings beats from FIX, BE, AXP, and WDC were sold anyway, signaling stretched expectations rather than weak fundamentals.
  • Energy (SLB, APA, EQNR, LNG) and security software (CRWD, PANW, FTNT) rallied on genuine sector breadth and catalysts, unlike the narrow, headline-driven healthcare move.
  • Key levels to watch: SPY must reclaim SMA20 ($770.15) and SMA50 ($767.81) for bullish confirmation, or lose $758.68 for a Cautious Bearish downgrade.
  • Next week brings FOMC, Q3 GDP, and Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet earnings alongside rising yields tied to oil-driven inflation fears — size down into the prints.

Ticker charts

QQQ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

SPY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

FIX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FIX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

BE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

AXP

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AXP in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

WDC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

SLB

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SLB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

APA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open APA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

EQNR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EQNR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

LNG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LNG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

CRWD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRWD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

PANW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PANW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

FTNT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FTNT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

T

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open T in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

TMUS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TMUS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 23, 2026.

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