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Despite a flat Nasdaq, the Dow and S&P sold off as breadth improved but stayed below the 50% confirmation threshold, keeping the regime Cautious. Energy and security software staged trustworthy breakouts while AI-levered earnings winners got sold, and the team maps levels and scenarios for a loaded Fed, GDP, and mega-cap earnings week. Built from...
Chapter by chapter
A Split Tape Beneath a Flat Headline
Dow and S&P drop while Nasdaq holds flat; SPY breaks below SMA20/50 but breadth ticks up, keeping the regime Cautious.
Earnings Beats Get Sold, Energy and Software Sprint
FIX, BE, AXP and WDC fall despite strong results, while oil-driven energy names and security software post broad, catalyst-backed breakouts.
Levels, Scenarios, and a Loaded Fed Week
Watchlist levels for CRWD, SLB, LNG and APA, bullish/bearish SPY scenarios, and how oil, yields, and FOMC/GDP/earnings tie into next week's plan.
Key points
Breadth improved to 47.9% above the 40-day but stayed under the 50% confirmation line, keeping the regime Cautious rather than bullish.
Strong earnings beats from FIX, BE, AXP, and WDC were sold anyway, signaling stretched expectations rather than weak fundamentals.
Energy (SLB, APA, EQNR, LNG) and security software (CRWD, PANW, FTNT) rallied on genuine sector breadth and catalysts, unlike the narrow, headline-driven healthcare move.
Key levels to watch: SPY must reclaim SMA20 ($770.15) and SMA50 ($767.81) for bullish confirmation, or lose $758.68 for a Cautious Bearish downgrade.
Next week brings FOMC, Q3 GDP, and Amazon/Microsoft/Alphabet earnings alongside rising yields tied to oil-driven inflation fears — size down into the prints.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QQQ in WaveFinder.
See SPY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SPY in WaveFinder.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FIX in WaveFinder.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BE in WaveFinder.
See AXP in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See SLB in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SLB in WaveFinder.
See APA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open APA in WaveFinder.
See EQNR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EQNR in WaveFinder.
See LNG in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRWD in WaveFinder.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PANW in WaveFinder.
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