Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #341: Fragile Improvement: Breadth Shifts Ahead of CPI – Tuesday 10/13/2026

Episode 3415:47

0:005:47

Episode summary

A quiet S&P close masked a volatile session underneath, with energy breakouts, chip resilience, and a market-sentiment flip on breadth pushing the regime from Bearish to Cautious-Bearish. The hosts break down why Citigroup’s earnings beat got sold while JPMorgan’s miss barely moved, and preview tomorrow’s CPI print as the key test for whether the improvement...

Chapter by chapter

Scorecard: Bearish to Cautious-Bearish

Breadth improves to 32.48% but short-term SMA weakens, keeping the regime fragile below the 40% confirmation line.

Energy's Clean Breakout Trend

Forty Darvas breakouts fire almost entirely in refiners, led by Valero, PBF, and Phillips 66.

Semis Absorb the CXMT Shock

AMD and Texas Instruments offset a 3.1% SOX drop tied to a Chinese memory competitor scare.

Citigroup's Backwards Sell-Off

Citigroup's best Q3 revenue in a decade gets sold on trading-line moderation, while JPMorgan's miss barely dents the stock.

JNJ Drags, Nasdaq vs NYSE Split

JNJ's MedTech weakness hits healthcare hardest as NYSE and Nasdaq breadth diverge sharply.

CPI Fork: Bull vs Bear Case

September CPI consensus and Fed commentary set up the key bull/bear breadth thresholds for tomorrow.

Watchlist and Risk Plan

Valero, PBF, and AMD levels to watch, plus a sized-down, confirmation-based trading approach into the print.

Key points

  • Breadth improved from 28.5% to 32.48% above the 40-day SMA, shifting the regime from Bearish to Cautious-Bearish, but short-term 20-SMA breadth actually fell.
  • Energy refiners (Valero, PBF, Phillips 66) drove nearly all of today's 40 Darvas breakouts, extending an 8.25% three-month trend.
  • AMD and Texas Instruments offset a 3.1% SOX drop from a Chinese memory (CXMT) scare, keeping Info Tech positive on the day.
  • Earnings reactions reflected forward trend, not headline results — Citigroup's decade-best revenue beat fell 5.6% while JPMorgan's miss barely moved.
  • Tomorrow's September CPI print at 8:30 AM is the single biggest swing factor, with clear breadth thresholds separating the bull and bear scenarios.

Ticker charts

C

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open C in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

JPM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open JPM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

GS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

JNJ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open JNJ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

VLO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VLO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

PBF

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PBF in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

PSX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PSX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

AMD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

TXN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TXN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

BAC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BAC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

MS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 13, 2026.

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