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The S&P hit a fresh record above 7,800, yet the regime model still reads Bearish as 20-day breadth collapsed from 44% to 32% in just five days. The team breaks down a 26-signal Darvas breakout scan with zero confirmed continuations, a one-deal utilities rally sparked by Constellation Energy, and sets up tomorrow’s Fed minutes and 10-year auction as the key tests for whether breadth can recover.
S&P closes above 7,800 for the first time, but the breadth-based regime reading stays Bearish.
20-day breadth falls from 44% to 32% even as major indexes post record highs.
Russell 2000 diverges from large caps, and Nasdaq decliners outpace advancers on heavier volume despite index gains.
The Darvas Box scan fires 26 breakout signals across AI, semis, and networking names, but none confirm as continuations.
Constellation Energy's nuclear deal with Alphabet sparks a 3% Utilities sector rally, aided by falling 10-year yields.
Health Care lags and hard-drive makers Seagate and Western Digital get hit on bidding-war fears, despite index records.
September Fed minutes and a 39-billion-dollar 10-year note reopening set up bull and bear scenarios for yields and breadth.
Key names MRVL, AMD, ANET, and OKLO highlighted, with the Bearish regime call holding unless 40-day breadth clears 35-40%.
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