Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #335: Record High, Still Bearish: The Breadth Breakthrough – Monday 10/5/2026

Episode 3355:29

0:005:29

Episode summary

Despite the Nasdaq closing at a record high, the market’s regime remains technically Bearish — though today’s breadth surge signals the first real crack in that wall. We break down the scans driving it, the PTC/CHRW M&A divergence, and exact levels to watch on NU, SHOP, and TSM heading into tomorrow’s three-year Treasury auction.

Chapter by chapter

Record High Meets Bearish Regime

The Nasdaq hits a record while the market stays technically Bearish, and breadth shows the first real sign of improvement.

Breadth Jump and Equal-Weight Surprise

Twenty-day breadth leaps from 29% to 36% and the Equal-Weight S&P nearly matches cap-weighted gains after seven losing weeks.

Index Prints and Yield Tension

Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow closing prints against a fresh 2026 high in the ten-year yield at 5.31%.

Continuation and Momentum Scans Fire

Continuation and momentum scans light up across sectors, with NU standing out on relative volume, and the Darvas Box expanding to 33 names.

PTC vs. CHRW: M&A Winners and Losers

PTC jumps on a clean all-cash buyout while acquirer CHRW drops nearly 11% on integration and debt worries.

TSM-Intel Split and Lagging Real Estate

TSM hits a 52-week high while Intel falls on the same catalyst, and Real Estate remains the lone declining sector.

Key Levels: NU, SHOP, TSM

Specific entry and pullback levels for NU, SHOP, and TSM heading into the next session.

Trade Balance and the Three-Year Auction

Tomorrow's Trade Balance data and a $58 billion three-year Treasury auction set up as the key swing factors against 5.31% yields.

Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios

The two breadth and yield scenarios that would confirm a Bullish shift or trigger a Correction watch.

Key points

  • The Bearish regime saw its sharpest single-day breadth improvement yet, with 20-day breadth jumping from 29% to 36%.
  • Participation is broadening beyond mega-caps — the Equal-Weight S&P nearly matched cap-weighted gains after seven losing weeks.
  • Same M&A catalyst, opposite outcomes: PTC (target) surged 33.5%, CHRW (acquirer) fell nearly 11% on integration/debt concerns.
  • Key levels to watch: NU needs to clear $15.46 to extend; SHOP needs strength through $167; TSM is buyable on a tight pullback.
  • Tomorrow's $58B three-year Treasury auction, against a 5.31% ten-year yield, is the critical swing factor for the rally's durability.

Ticker charts

SHOP

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SHOP in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

ADSK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADSK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

SYK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SYK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

TEAM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TEAM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

NU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

BABA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BABA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

GRAB

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GRAB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

PTC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PTC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

CHRW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CHRW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

TSM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

INTC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 5, 2026.

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