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Despite the Nasdaq closing at a record high, the market’s regime remains technically Bearish — though today’s breadth surge signals the first real crack in that wall. We break down the scans driving it, the PTC/CHRW M&A divergence, and exact levels to watch on NU, SHOP, and TSM heading into tomorrow’s three-year Treasury auction.
Chapter by chapter
Record High Meets Bearish Regime
The Nasdaq hits a record while the market stays technically Bearish, and breadth shows the first real sign of improvement.
Breadth Jump and Equal-Weight Surprise
Twenty-day breadth leaps from 29% to 36% and the Equal-Weight S&P nearly matches cap-weighted gains after seven losing weeks.
Index Prints and Yield Tension
Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow closing prints against a fresh 2026 high in the ten-year yield at 5.31%.
Continuation and Momentum Scans Fire
Continuation and momentum scans light up across sectors, with NU standing out on relative volume, and the Darvas Box expanding to 33 names.
PTC vs. CHRW: M&A Winners and Losers
PTC jumps on a clean all-cash buyout while acquirer CHRW drops nearly 11% on integration and debt worries.
TSM-Intel Split and Lagging Real Estate
TSM hits a 52-week high while Intel falls on the same catalyst, and Real Estate remains the lone declining sector.
Key Levels: NU, SHOP, TSM
Specific entry and pullback levels for NU, SHOP, and TSM heading into the next session.
Trade Balance and the Three-Year Auction
Tomorrow's Trade Balance data and a $58 billion three-year Treasury auction set up as the key swing factors against 5.31% yields.
Bullish vs. Bearish Scenarios
The two breadth and yield scenarios that would confirm a Bullish shift or trigger a Correction watch.
Key points
The Bearish regime saw its sharpest single-day breadth improvement yet, with 20-day breadth jumping from 29% to 36%.
Participation is broadening beyond mega-caps — the Equal-Weight S&P nearly matched cap-weighted gains after seven losing weeks.
Same M&A catalyst, opposite outcomes: PTC (target) surged 33.5%, CHRW (acquirer) fell nearly 11% on integration/debt concerns.
Key levels to watch: NU needs to clear $15.46 to extend; SHOP needs strength through $167; TSM is buyable on a tight pullback.
Tomorrow's $58B three-year Treasury auction, against a 5.31% ten-year yield, is the critical swing factor for the rally's durability.
See SHOP in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SHOP in WaveFinder.
See ADSK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADSK in WaveFinder.
See SYK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SYK in WaveFinder.
See TEAM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TEAM in WaveFinder.
See NU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NU in WaveFinder.
See BABA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See GRAB in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GRAB in WaveFinder.
See PTC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PTC in WaveFinder.
See CHRW in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CHRW in WaveFinder.
See TSM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.
See INTC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTC in WaveFinder.