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A historic overnight spike and reversal in the 10-year yield drove a relief rally, but short-term breadth collapsed even as the index closed green. The team breaks down which stocks confirmed the bounce — led by Micron, Accenture, and Synopsys — and sets up tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls print as the key swing factor for the regime.
Chapter by chapter
Correction Regime Holds Despite Green Close
Breadth stays in Correction at 18.61% even as the S&P closes up 0.2%, revealing a narrow bounce.
Yield Round-Trip Sparks the Relief Rally
The 10-year's spike to 5.34% and reversal to 5.24% slashes Fed rate-hike odds and lifts small and mid-caps.
Micron Leads, Alphabet and Paramount Fade
Momentum setups broaden and Micron's reversal confirms durable AI memory demand, while Alphabet and Paramount Skydance slide on fading catalysts.
The 20-SMA Breadth Collapse
Forty-SMA breadth rises while 20-SMA breadth collapses ten points, exposing fragile short-term participation beneath the index gain.
Payrolls Print Will Set Tomorrow's Direction
Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM is framed as the deciding variable between a confirmed bounce and a renewed downgrade.
Watchlist Levels: MU, COHR, CRDO, ON
Specific trade levels are laid out for Micron, Coherent, Credo, and ON Semiconductor ahead of the jobs data.
Key points
The Correction regime held at 18.61% breadth despite a green index close, showing the bounce was narrower than headlines suggested.
A 10-year yield spike to 5.34% followed by a reversal to 5.24% drove the relief rally and cut Fed rate-hike odds to 23.8%.
Micron's post-earnings reversal, plus big moves from Accenture and Synopsys, confirmed durable AI-infrastructure demand across multiple names.
20-SMA breadth collapsed ten points to 15% even as 40-SMA breadth improved — a key divergence that argues for caution.
Tomorrow's 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls print (consensus 85K vs. 162K prior) is the deciding variable for whether the regime stabilizes or downgrades further.
See MU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.
See COHR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.
See CRDO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRDO in WaveFinder.
See ON in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ON in WaveFinder.
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