Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #332: Calm Index, Cracking Breadth: The 8-Point Warning – Tuesday 9/29/2026

Episode 3324:37

0:004:37

Episode summary

Despite a nearly flat S&P close, breadth collapsed sharply as stocks above their 20-day average fell from 21% to 13% in a single session. The hosts break down narrow chip-equipment leadership, FICO’s regulatory-driven crash, and why tomorrow’s PCE print will determine whether the Correction regime deepens or eases.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Collapse Under a Flat Tape

The S&P closed nearly flat, but the 20-day breadth reading fell eight points in one session, confirming the Correction regime.

Narrow Chip-Equipment Leadership

Darvas Box and D9M scans show concentrated strength in chip names like Bloom Energy, AMAT, ONTO, ENTG, and ASML.

FICO's Regulatory Shock

FICO plunges over 26% after a regulatory decision breaks its pricing monopoly, overriding any technical setup, while retail names Walmart and Target also sag.

PCE Print and Key Levels to Watch

Tomorrow's 8:30 AM PCE data and Micron's earnings will decide whether breadth recovers or the Correction deepens; key levels given for Bloom Energy, AMAT, Oracle, and LITE.

Key points

  • A calm headline index can mask a sharp internal breakdown — breadth fell 8 points while the S&P was down just 0.2%.
  • Today's technical leadership was narrow, concentrated in chip-equipment names with coordinated volume confirmation, not broad market participation.
  • Regulatory and fundamental catalysts (FICO, Carnival) overrode technical setups entirely, showing chart patterns can't predict business-model shocks.
  • Tomorrow's 8:30 AM PCE print is the key swing factor: a cool core reading could restore breadth toward 20%+, while a hot print could push 40-SMA breadth below 15%.
  • Micron's after-hours earnings will test whether chip-equipment strength has real legs ahead of AMAT follow-through.

Ticker charts

BE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

AMAT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMAT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

ONTO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ONTO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

ENTG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ENTG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

ASML

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ASML in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

CCL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CCL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

FICO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

WMT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WMT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

TGT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TGT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

MU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

ORCL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ORCL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

LITE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LITE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 29, 2026.

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