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Despite every major average closing green Friday, breadth deteriorated and the regime stayed Bearish. The hosts break down why the rally is narrow and chip-driven, spotlight key earnings movers like MSFT, AKAM, and COST, and lay out the watchlist and catalysts heading into Wednesday’s PCE report.
Chapter by chapter
All Green, Still Bearish
Every major average closed higher Friday, but the Bearish regime call held into the close.
Breadth Breaks Down
Percent of stocks above the 20-day fell even as the index rallied, exposing a resilient headline over a rotting core.
Chips Carry the Tape
Semiconductor strength drove nearly all 21 continuation signals, showing just how narrow the rally really is.
Zero Reversals, No Confirmation
No reversal signals fired, meaning there's no evidence the broad market has actually bottomed.
Movers: MSFT, AKAM, COST, META
A cloud mega-deal lifts MSFT and AKAM, COST beats on fundamentals, and META cools off after its AI run.
Setting Up for Wednesday's PCE
Monday is quiet, but Wednesday's PCE, ADP, and GDP data are the real test for rate odds and breadth.
Watchlist and Bull/Bear Levels
Specific entry, stop, and target levels for CRDO, QCOM, and ON, plus the crude and 10-year thresholds that flip the regime.
Key points
All five major averages closed green, but the Bearish regime call held because breadth actually deteriorated during the rally.
Strength is extremely narrow — nearly all signal activity came from semiconductors, with zero reversal signals confirming a broader bottom.
Company-specific winners (MSFT, AKAM, COST) were driven by fundamentals and M&A, not macro improvement.
Wednesday's PCE, ADP, and GDP data are the key catalysts that could either broaden or break this bounce.
Stay selective and defensive: watch CRDO, ON, and QCOM levels, and track crude oil and the 10-year yield for regime confirmation.
See ADI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADI in WaveFinder.
See CRDO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRDO in WaveFinder.
See LRCX in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LRCX in WaveFinder.
See TXN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See MPWR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MPWR in WaveFinder.
See MSFT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MSFT in WaveFinder.
See AKAM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AKAM in WaveFinder.
See COST in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COST in WaveFinder.
See META in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See QCOM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QCOM in WaveFinder.
See ON in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ON in WaveFinder.