Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #330: Green Tape, Rotting Core: Why Bearish Still Holds – Friday 9/25/2026

Episode 3305:25

0:005:25

Episode summary

Despite every major average closing green Friday, breadth deteriorated and the regime stayed Bearish. The hosts break down why the rally is narrow and chip-driven, spotlight key earnings movers like MSFT, AKAM, and COST, and lay out the watchlist and catalysts heading into Wednesday’s PCE report.

Chapter by chapter

All Green, Still Bearish

Every major average closed higher Friday, but the Bearish regime call held into the close.

Breadth Breaks Down

Percent of stocks above the 20-day fell even as the index rallied, exposing a resilient headline over a rotting core.

Chips Carry the Tape

Semiconductor strength drove nearly all 21 continuation signals, showing just how narrow the rally really is.

Zero Reversals, No Confirmation

No reversal signals fired, meaning there's no evidence the broad market has actually bottomed.

Movers: MSFT, AKAM, COST, META

A cloud mega-deal lifts MSFT and AKAM, COST beats on fundamentals, and META cools off after its AI run.

Setting Up for Wednesday's PCE

Monday is quiet, but Wednesday's PCE, ADP, and GDP data are the real test for rate odds and breadth.

Watchlist and Bull/Bear Levels

Specific entry, stop, and target levels for CRDO, QCOM, and ON, plus the crude and 10-year thresholds that flip the regime.

Key points

  • All five major averages closed green, but the Bearish regime call held because breadth actually deteriorated during the rally.
  • Strength is extremely narrow — nearly all signal activity came from semiconductors, with zero reversal signals confirming a broader bottom.
  • Company-specific winners (MSFT, AKAM, COST) were driven by fundamentals and M&A, not macro improvement.
  • Wednesday's PCE, ADP, and GDP data are the key catalysts that could either broaden or break this bounce.
  • Stay selective and defensive: watch CRDO, ON, and QCOM levels, and track crude oil and the 10-year yield for regime confirmation.

Ticker charts

ADI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

CRDO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRDO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

LRCX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LRCX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

TXN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TXN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

MPWR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MPWR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

MSFT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MSFT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

AKAM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AKAM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

COST

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COST in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

QCOM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open QCOM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

ON

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ON in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 25, 2026.

More from Next Day Prep