Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #322: Calm Index, Violent Rotation: Chips Crash as Cybersecurity Rips – Monday 9/14/2026

Episode 3226:00

0:006:00

Episode summary

The S&P closed nearly flat, but underneath the surface, an AI-safety scare triggered a violent rotation out of semiconductors and into cybersecurity software. The team breaks down the breadth collapse, confirms the move with volume and scan data, and sets levels and risk discipline ahead of Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Chapter by chapter

Cautious-Bearish Call Confirmed

Breadth falls from 36.9% to 30.9% above the 40-day, validating the morning's cautious-bearish stance.

20-Day Breadth Collapses 25 Points

A calm index close hides a sharp one-day breadth collapse from 40% to 15%, signaling distribution.

AI-Safety Scare Sparks Sector Flight

Public AI-safety pushback and a researcher resignation trigger a flight from chips into cybersecurity software.

Chip Carnage vs. Software Surge

GLW, TER, and COHR plunge over 12% while CRWD, PANW, and RPD post double-digit gains, led by RPD's 19.67% spike.

Volume Confirms Institutional Buying

Relative volume of 2.5x-3.4x average and clustered D9M, 2LYNCH, and Darvas signals confirm real accumulation, not a retail chase.

Narrow Leadership Warning

The rally is powerful but concentrated in a handful of names, leaving broader market breadth in the shadows.

After-Hours Movers and Economic Calendar

NTSK and KR extend gains after-hours while GLW is hit with a stock offering; Empire State Manufacturing and a 20-year bond reopening are on deck.

Watchlist Levels and Bull/Bear Scenarios

Key breakout levels on CRWD, PANW, and NET, plus binary bull/bear scenarios tied to oil, yields, and breadth.

Discipline Codes Ahead of FOMC

CRT and T3A codes guide position sizing into Wednesday's Fed decision amid a fragile, concentrated rally.

Key points

  • The cautious-bearish call held as 20-day breadth collapsed 25 points in a single session, from 40% to 15%.
  • An AI-safety scare drove a violent rotation: semiconductors (PHLX Semi -5.9%) sold off hard while cybersecurity software (+4.28%) surged.
  • Relative volume of 2.5x-3.4x average, confirmed by D9M, 2LYNCH, and Darvas Box signal clusters, indicates genuine institutional accumulation in software names.
  • Leadership is narrow and concentrated, meaning the rally is real but fragile given weak broader market breadth.
  • Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, use CRT and T3A discipline codes to size positions cautiously around key levels in CRWD, PANW, and NET.

Ticker charts

GLW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GLW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

TER

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TER in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

COHR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

CRWD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRWD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

PANW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PANW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

RPD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RPD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

COIN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COIN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

NTSK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NTSK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

KR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

NET

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NET in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 14, 2026.

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