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A brutal session saw breadth crater from 58% to 21% in a single day, confirming a flip to Bearish and signaling institutional distribution. With scans thinning out and even strong earnings unable to overcome the tape, all eyes turn to tomorrow’s CPI print as the fulcrum for whether the market reclaims the trend or falls into correction territory.
Chapter by chapter
Breadth Cliff-Dives to Bearish
The 20-day breadth reading collapses from 58% to 21% in one session, confirming a full flip from Cautious-Bearish to Bearish.
Sector Damage and Distribution Call
Nine of eleven S&P sectors close red, the 4% gauge flips hard bearish, and the five-day down sequence is labeled institutional distribution.
Scans Thin Out as Leaders Vanish
Continuation scans like 2LYNCH and D9M shrink dramatically, reflecting how few stocks can still qualify as leaders amid failing breadth.
Merger Winners and Earnings Casualties
Idiosyncratic movers like SWKS, QRVO, and ASO buck the trend while TSM, COO, and AEO show that good news and beats can't overcome a bad tape or soft guidance.
CPI Bull and Bear Scenarios
Tomorrow's 8:30 AM CPI print is framed as the fulcrum, with clear breadth-based bull and bear scenarios tied to rate-hike odds and yields.
Watchlist and Game Plan
Key names RDDT, ELV, and AAPL are outlined with trigger levels, alongside a game plan to stay flat until breadth confirms direction.
Key points
20-day breadth collapsed from 58% to 21% in a single session — a 37-point one-day drop signaling institutional distribution, not noise
Continuation scans (2LYNCH, D9M) thinned sharply, confirming fewer stocks can qualify as leaders when underlying breadth is failing
Good news and earnings beats (TSM, AEO) couldn't overcome the bad tape or soft guidance — guidance matters more than the print
Tomorrow's CPI print is the fulcrum: a cool print could reclaim the 20-day breadth line, while a hot print risks breadth falling under 20% into correction territory
Game plan: stay largely flat into the CPI print and only chase strength if breadth reclaims the 20-day line
See SWKS in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See QRVO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See ASO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See TSM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See COO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See AEO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See RDDT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See AAPL in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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