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Breadth collapsed from 44.4% to 31.71% above the 40-day in a single session as Iran tanker strikes sent oil up 3.3% and the 10-year to a fresh 2026 high. The team breaks down which signals held (META, HCA) versus which failed (VRT, CASY, CHTR, CMCSA) and lays out the Plan A / Plan B playbook for tomorrow’s PPI print.
Chapter by chapter
Verdict Flips to Cautious-Bearish
The morning's Cautious call collapses to Cautious-Bearish as breadth drops from 44.4% to 31.71% and the Bull/Bear gauge turns decisively negative.
Oil Strike Sends Yields Higher
U.S.-Iran tanker strikes push WTI up 3.3% to $96.07, driving the 10-year yield to a fresh 2026 high of 4.84% and exposing energy's green close as a warning, not strength.
Momentum Signals Thin Out Fast
2LYNCH fires 14 continuation signals versus just two reversals, with META's AI catalyst and HCA's defensive rotation showing two very different reasons for green candles.
Casey's and Cable Punished on Guidance
CASY drops 14.24% despite beating estimates as comps decelerate and guidance merely holds, while CHTR and CMCSA slide on competitive-intensity warnings.
PPI Sets Tomorrow's Path
Tomorrow's 8:30 AM PPI print becomes the fulcrum, with a cool reading sparking a relief bounce (Plan A) and a hot reading risking an outright Bearish downgrade (Plan B).
Key Levels and the T3A Setup
Specific levels for META, XOM, OKTA, and HCA are laid out ahead of a three-catalyst stretch — PPI, CPI, and FOMC — under action code T3A.
Key points
Breadth collapsed intraday from 44.4% to 31.71% above the 40-day, forcing a same-day downgrade from Cautious to Cautious-Bearish.
Iran tanker strikes drove oil up 3.3% and the 10-year yield to a fresh 2026 high of 4.84% — energy's green close confirmed the shock rather than signaling strength.
Company-specific catalysts (META's Muse AI debut) and defensive rotation (HCA) can override a bad tape, but earnings beats without raised guidance still get punished (CASY down 14.24%).
Momentum signals are thinning fast — 14 continuation signals versus only 2 reversals — while five straight defensive sessions confirm a broader regime shift.
Tomorrow's PPI print at 8:30 AM is the key fulcrum: a cool number supports a relief bounce above $640 on META, a hot number risks an outright Bearish downgrade.
See META in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See MNST in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See WDAY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See VRT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See CASY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See CHTR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See CMCSA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See XOM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See OKTA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See BHVN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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