Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #317: Quiet Close, Violent Rotation: Memory Chips Run While Software Fades – Friday 9/4/2026

Episode 3175:41

0:005:41

Episode summary

Despite a nearly flat S&P close, breadth deteriorated sharply and money rotated hard into semis and memory names on a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst, while software lagged badly. The episode breaks down why FICO’s 17% drop was a policy shock rather than a broken business, unlike LULU’s earnings-driven collapse, and sets up SNDK, MU, and WDC entry levels ahead of the pivotal September 11 CPI print.

Chapter by chapter

Breadth Erodes Behind a Quiet Close

Cautious call holds but breadth drops four points across both the 40-day and 20-day timeframes.

Hidden Rotation Under the Surface

Flat index closes mask a violent rotation as semis rally 3.4% while software falls 2.2%.

Scans Scream Memory and Semis

Continuation, D9M, and Darvas signals cluster almost entirely in memory and semiconductor names on a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst.

Concentration Risk, No New Bottoms

Narrow leadership in SNDK, MU, and WDC raises a fragility flag, while only 2 Reversal Bullish signals confirm no bottoms yet in beaten-down sectors.

FICO vs LULU: Broken Chart or Broken Business

FICO's plunge is a VantageScore policy shock, not a fundamental failure, while LULU's drop reflects a genuine earnings and guidance miss.

SNDK, MU, WDC Entry Levels

Specific supply, demand, and trigger levels for the day's leading memory and storage names.

Calendar Watch: CPI on September 11

Light earnings week with UNFI and ORCL, but August CPI on September 11 is the key catalyst for bullish or bearish breadth shifts.

Game Plan and Final Takeaway

Buy strength only in confirmed semi and memory leaders on pullbacks, stay defensive elsewhere, and watch for the broken-chart-versus-broken-business distinction.

Key points

  • A flat index close can mask severe internal rotation — always check breadth and sector spread, not just headline numbers.
  • Breadth deteriorated across both the 40-day (48.9% to 45.0%) and 20-day (19% to 15%) timeframes, signaling broad-based narrowing.
  • Nearly all bullish technical signals (continuation, D9M, Darvas) clustered in just two sectors — memory and semis — driven by a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst.
  • Distinguish a 'broken chart' from a 'broken business': FICO's 17% drop was a VantageScore policy shock, while LULU's 17% drop was a genuine earnings and guidance miss.
  • September 11's CPI print is the key catalyst — soft data could push breadth back to 48-50% (bullish), while hot data or two-plus sessions under 40% breadth flips the outlook to Cautious Bearish.

Ticker charts

SNDK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNDK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

MU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

WDC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

FICO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

EFX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EFX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

TRU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TRU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

LULU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LULU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

UNFI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open UNFI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

ORCL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ORCL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

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