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Despite a nearly flat S&P close, breadth deteriorated sharply and money rotated hard into semis and memory names on a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst, while software lagged badly. The episode breaks down why FICO’s 17% drop was a policy shock rather than a broken business, unlike LULU’s earnings-driven collapse, and sets up SNDK, MU, and WDC entry levels ahead of the pivotal September 11 CPI print.
Chapter by chapter
Breadth Erodes Behind a Quiet Close
Cautious call holds but breadth drops four points across both the 40-day and 20-day timeframes.
Hidden Rotation Under the Surface
Flat index closes mask a violent rotation as semis rally 3.4% while software falls 2.2%.
Scans Scream Memory and Semis
Continuation, D9M, and Darvas signals cluster almost entirely in memory and semiconductor names on a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst.
Concentration Risk, No New Bottoms
Narrow leadership in SNDK, MU, and WDC raises a fragility flag, while only 2 Reversal Bullish signals confirm no bottoms yet in beaten-down sectors.
FICO vs LULU: Broken Chart or Broken Business
FICO's plunge is a VantageScore policy shock, not a fundamental failure, while LULU's drop reflects a genuine earnings and guidance miss.
SNDK, MU, WDC Entry Levels
Specific supply, demand, and trigger levels for the day's leading memory and storage names.
Calendar Watch: CPI on September 11
Light earnings week with UNFI and ORCL, but August CPI on September 11 is the key catalyst for bullish or bearish breadth shifts.
Game Plan and Final Takeaway
Buy strength only in confirmed semi and memory leaders on pullbacks, stay defensive elsewhere, and watch for the broken-chart-versus-broken-business distinction.
Key points
A flat index close can mask severe internal rotation — always check breadth and sector spread, not just headline numbers.
Breadth deteriorated across both the 40-day (48.9% to 45.0%) and 20-day (19% to 15%) timeframes, signaling broad-based narrowing.
Nearly all bullish technical signals (continuation, D9M, Darvas) clustered in just two sectors — memory and semis — driven by a DRAM/NAND pricing catalyst.
Distinguish a 'broken chart' from a 'broken business': FICO's 17% drop was a VantageScore policy shock, while LULU's 17% drop was a genuine earnings and guidance miss.
September 11's CPI print is the key catalyst — soft data could push breadth back to 48-50% (bullish), while hot data or two-plus sessions under 40% breadth flips the outlook to Cautious Bearish.
See SNDK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNDK in WaveFinder.
See MU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.
See WDC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.
See FICO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.
See EFX in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EFX in WaveFinder.
See TRU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See LULU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LULU in WaveFinder.
See UNFI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open UNFI in WaveFinder.
See ORCL in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ORCL in WaveFinder.