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Despite two straight up days and every major index green, breadth collapsed underneath the surface — 20-SMA participation fell from 17% to 11%. The team breaks down why SNOW ripped on earnings while AVGO and HPE sold off despite beat-and-raise quarters, and lays out the bull/bear game plan for tomorrow’s critical payrolls print.
The morning's Cautious regime call is graded against the close, with the 40-SMA breadth reading roughly flat.
Short-term participation collapses even as every major index closes green, exposing a narrow melt-up in mega-caps.
Momentum and dip-recovery signals both fire, confirming the narrow, growth-led character of the rally.
Snowflake surges 16.48% on a beat-and-raise while Broadcom falls 2.74% despite also beating and raising, illustrating expectations-driven price action.
Bitcoin above 80K lifts Financials via BTBT and RIOT, while Energy, Materials, and staples names like TSN and CPB lag or fall on guidance.
Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 AM, with consensus at 40K versus a negative 23K prior, framed as the key catalyst into the September decision.
A soft print broadens breadth and eases yields; a hot print pushes the 10-year above 4.80% and risks a regime downgrade.
Three actionable setups are laid out with specific trigger and target levels, and the regime forecast stays Cautious.
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Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.
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Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.
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Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.
