Next Day Prep

Next Day Prep #309: Green Tape, Thinning Crowd: Breadth Warns Ahead of NVDA – Tuesday 8/25/2026

Episode 3095:46

0:005:46

Episode summary

Indexes closed green but breadth quietly fell to 51.9%, exposing a narrow chip-led rally powered by SOX strength. The team breaks down the day’s catalyst-driven winners like SMCI and MRNA versus the DKS-led apparel selloff, then sets clear levels and breadth thresholds ahead of tomorrow’s NVDA earnings and PCE double-header.

Chapter by chapter

Green Close, Falling Breadth

All three major indexes closed green, but breadth dropped to 51.9%, signaling a bearish divergence beneath the surface.

Narrow Chip-Led Rally

The SOX's 1.4% snapback drove the gains while the bull-bear gauge showed shrinking participation versus the prior day.

Scan Tally and Catalyst Winners

Darvas Box and Continuation signals led the tally, with SMCI and MRNA rallying on distinct fundamental catalysts.

DKS Drags Down Apparel and Energy

DKS plunged over 30% on soft Foot Locker results, dragging Nike, Deckers, and Lululemon lower alongside a broader energy selloff.

NVDA and PCE Double Catalyst

Tomorrow brings NVDA earnings, July PCE, Q2 GDP, and a 5-year note auction — a loaded catalyst day requiring patience.

Key Levels and Breadth Thresholds

Specific price levels for NVDA, SMCI, HOOD, and MRNA are laid out alongside the 55%/45% breadth thresholds that define bullish or bearish regime shifts.

Key points

  • Breadth fell to 51.9% even as all three major indexes closed green — a classic bearish divergence signal.
  • The rally was narrow, led almost entirely by a chip sector snapback (SOX +1.4%), not broad participation.
  • Stocks with specific catalysts (SMCI's NVIDIA partnership, MRNA's vaccine data) outperformed those riding pure sentiment.
  • A single earnings miss from Foot Locker dragged down the entire apparel complex, including Nike, Deckers, and Lululemon.
  • Tomorrow's NVDA earnings and PCE data are the key regime-defining catalysts — breadth above 55% or below 45% determines the next move.

Ticker charts

SMCI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMCI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

MRNA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MRNA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

DKS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DKS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

NKE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NKE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

DECK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DECK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

LULU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LULU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

HOOD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open HOOD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

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