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Indexes closed green but breadth quietly fell to 51.9%, exposing a narrow chip-led rally powered by SOX strength. The team breaks down the day’s catalyst-driven winners like SMCI and MRNA versus the DKS-led apparel selloff, then sets clear levels and breadth thresholds ahead of tomorrow’s NVDA earnings and PCE double-header.
Chapter by chapter
Green Close, Falling Breadth
All three major indexes closed green, but breadth dropped to 51.9%, signaling a bearish divergence beneath the surface.
Narrow Chip-Led Rally
The SOX's 1.4% snapback drove the gains while the bull-bear gauge showed shrinking participation versus the prior day.
Scan Tally and Catalyst Winners
Darvas Box and Continuation signals led the tally, with SMCI and MRNA rallying on distinct fundamental catalysts.
DKS Drags Down Apparel and Energy
DKS plunged over 30% on soft Foot Locker results, dragging Nike, Deckers, and Lululemon lower alongside a broader energy selloff.
NVDA and PCE Double Catalyst
Tomorrow brings NVDA earnings, July PCE, Q2 GDP, and a 5-year note auction — a loaded catalyst day requiring patience.
Key Levels and Breadth Thresholds
Specific price levels for NVDA, SMCI, HOOD, and MRNA are laid out alongside the 55%/45% breadth thresholds that define bullish or bearish regime shifts.
Key points
Breadth fell to 51.9% even as all three major indexes closed green — a classic bearish divergence signal.
The rally was narrow, led almost entirely by a chip sector snapback (SOX +1.4%), not broad participation.
Stocks with specific catalysts (SMCI's NVIDIA partnership, MRNA's vaccine data) outperformed those riding pure sentiment.
A single earnings miss from Foot Locker dragged down the entire apparel complex, including Nike, Deckers, and Lululemon.
Tomorrow's NVDA earnings and PCE data are the key regime-defining catalysts — breadth above 55% or below 45% determines the next move.
See SMCI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMCI in WaveFinder.
See MRNA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MRNA in WaveFinder.
See DKS in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DKS in WaveFinder.
See NKE in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See DECK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See LULU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See HOOD in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open HOOD in WaveFinder.
See NVDA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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