Next Day Prep: Semiconductor Boom Signals Market Shift – Friday 2/13/2026

Oh, absolutely. If you just glanced at the S&P 500 closing flat, you missed the real story. This was a classic bifurcation setup. We had the mega-caps acting like an anchor, dragging down the major indices, while the rest of the market actually partied. It's rare to see the Nasdaq down while the small-cap Russell 2000 rips over one percent.

It’s a rotation, plain and simple. The market is sniffing out disinflation, which helps the rate-sensitive stuff. That’s why you saw Utilities surge almost 3 percent and Real Estate up 1.5 percent. But for the Mega Caps—NVIDIA, Apple, Meta—they've had such a run that money is rotating out of them and finding value elsewhere. NVIDIA down over 2 percent and Apple down nearly that much really masked the strength we saw in software and industrials.

This was the highlight of the session for me. AMAT didn't just beat numbers; they dropped a bombshell prediction. They believe the semiconductor industry could reach one trillion dollars by 2026. That is years ahead of previous forecasts. It confirms that the AI infrastructure build-out is not slowing down. It’s accelerating. If you are trading semis, you have to look at this as a 'pick and shovel' confirmation. Even though NVIDIA was down, the equipment makers like AMAT and Arista Networks are showing massive demand.

I think it is pure positioning. We are at lofty levels. But look at the internal data from AMAT—revenue from Taiwan surged 45 percent. That tells me the advanced manufacturing is ramping up fast. The weakness in NVIDIA today feels more like profit-taking ahead of the long weekend rather than a structural issue. The trend is still up, but the immediate momentum shifted to the hardware suppliers.

It is the line in the sand. We closed below it yesterday, and we failed to take it back today. Technically, the SPY is stuck in a box. We are looking at support right at 680. If we break 680 on Tuesday, we could slide down to 678 quickly. On the upside, we need to clear 683 to get any momentum going. Right now, the volume profiles show distribution. It’s not panic selling, but there is no aggressive buying at these levels either.

The QQQ is in a similar bind. Support is sitting at 600. That is the psychological and technical floor right now. Resistance is at 603. If we can't hold 600, we are looking at 598. Also, keep an eye on the VXX. It ticked up to around 29.26. It’s creeping higher, which suggests traders are buying some insurance. If that VXX breaks above 29.34, expect more volatility.

Ugly. Missed earnings by a mile—down over 3 dollars a share against expectations. That stock is in the penalty box. On the flip side, Roku beat nicely, and Trade Desk-adjacent names are interesting. But the big winner remains the defensive rotation. If you're swinging positions over the long weekend, the relative strength was in Small Caps and Utilities, not Big Tech.