Back to Podcast
Next Day Prep #300 Neutral

Next Day Prep #300: Flat NVDA, Coiled Market: Setting Up for CPI – Tuesday 8/11/2026

August 11, 2026 5:51
Tickers Mentioned
NVDAGOOGAMZNORCLAPPKKRCAHMELISMCICRWV
Episode Summary
NVIDIA's five hundred billion dollar financing deal fizzles into a flat close, exposing a defensive rotation out of mega-cap growth and into small-caps, industrials, and utilities. The hosts break down why continuation setups dominated reversals, why Rocket Lab's growth got punished while Cardinal Health's discipline got rewarded, and lay out the bull/bear scenarios for tomorrow's make-or-break CPI print.
Key Takeaways
  • S&P -0.32%, Nasdaq -0.60% as mega-cap tech faded pre-CPI
  • July CPI at 8:30 ET is the pivotal catalyst tomorrow
  • Utilities, Industrials, Energy led; Communication Services worst -2.1%
  • NVIDIA's $500B AI financing deal lifted KKR +6.9%, Apollo +6.2%
  • Breadth held Cautious at 57.1% above 40-SMA on light volume
0:00 / 5:51
Spotify Apple Podcasts Amazon Music

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The major averages faded from a quiet start as rising oil (WTI +1.2% to $83.17) and broad mega-cap tech weakness pulled the tape lower — the S&P 500 closed -0.32% at 7728.20, the Nasdaq -0.60% at 26466.47, and the Dow -0.34% at 53791.85; SPY/QQQ/IWM index levels are (data unavailable) today so no ETF technicals to cite. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive into the 8:30 ET July CPI print — let the number set the tone before committing size. The defining context was a wait-and-see posture ahead of CPI, with Alphabet (GOOG -3.61%), Amazon (AMZN -2.09%), Oracle (ORCL -3.71%) and AppLovin (APP -5.99%) leading mega-cap softness while energy and utilities held firm. Regime context — 57.1% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 60.5% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 187 bulls vs. 144 bears. The 5-day trend shows a choppy, sideways-to-lower drift, with breadth cooling but advancers still edging decliners on both exchanges.

SIP: NVDA GOOG SMCI CRWV

  • What’s working: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired the most with 17 signals, Darvas Box 27, while D9M and Reversal Bullish each posted just 5 — trend-continuation setups still dominate over reversals.
  • Leading sectors: Utilities +0.82%, Industrials +0.74%, Energy +0.60%; leading themes: Packaged +14.36% (PLAG outlier +444%), Cannabis +4.24%, Equipment +2.53%.
  • Key event: NVIDIA’s $500B AI-infrastructure financing initiative with KKR (+6.92%), Apollo (+6.23%), BlackRock, Blackstone, Brookfield and Goldman — NVDA gave back its opening pop to close flat (-0.03%).
  • Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (60.5%), closing is Cautious (57.1%) — held, as breadth eroded modestly but stayed mid-range with equal-weight S&P +0.3%.
  • DEP watchlist: COMP $12.69, BULL $7.57, CMCSA $25.67, GM $89.36, SW $49.62.
  • SIPS: MELI $1940.15, ETN $459.33, HUBB $519.53, MCK $902.02.

Market Scorecard

  • Dow -0.34% (53791.85), Nasdaq -0.60% (26466.47), S&P 500 -0.32% (7728.20); SPY/QQQ/IWM ETF levels (data unavailable).
  • Beneath the surface resilience: S&P Equal Weight +0.3%, Russell 2000 +0.3%, S&P MidCap 400 +0.3% all outperformed the cap-weighted averages.
  • Breadth cooled to 57.1% above 40-day SMA (from 60.5%); 4% gauge 187 bulls / 144 bears — a positive tilt but narrowing.
  • Volume was below average (NYSE 1.12 bln, Nasdaq 7.70 bln) — a pre-CPI wait-and-see, not distribution.

Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t

  • Winners: Utilities +0.82% and Industrials +0.74% led — Axon (AXON +6.70%) rebounded from last week’s post-earnings slide; electrical-equipment names outperformed.
  • Energy +0.60% held up as WTI climbed to $83.17; the AI-financing beneficiaries KKR +6.92% and Apollo +6.23% were the day’s standout S&P components.
  • What failed: Communication Services -2.1% (worst sector) on Alphabet -3.61%; software gave back yesterday’s rally with Oracle -3.71% and AppLovin -5.99%; semis faded from strong early gains (SOX +0.9% but well off highs, NVDA flat).
  • Breadth reading: 57.1% above 40-SMA, regime Cautious — the 5-day trend is sideways-to-lower with leadership rotating defensive/value over mega-cap growth.

Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

  • Cardinal Health (CAH) jumped on a Q4 beat and FY27 EPS guide of $12.40-12.60 (above $12.11 consensus), with normalized 13-15% earnings growth — the day’s cleanest fundamental winner.
  • Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell despite revenue +62% yr/yr to $234.06M and Q3 guide of $250-265M, as investors focused on a narrowing Neutron launch window and $(110.1)M free cash burn.
  • Tomorrow 8:30 ET: July CPI (consensus +0.1%) and Core CPI (+0.2%) — the pivotal print; CME FedWatch has September at a coin-flip between a hike and a hold. Also 7:00 ET MBA Mortgage, 10:30 ET crude inventories, 14:00 ET Treasury Budget, and a $42B 10-yr auction at 13:00 ET.
  • CoreWeave (CRWV) and Super Micro (SMCI) reported after today’s close — watch the AI-infrastructure read-through; SMCI‘s key question is whether the 15-17% gross-margin range is sustainable.

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups

  • MELI at $1940.15 — Continuation breakout, +6.3% on RVOL 1.3; strongest large-cap momentum name in the 2LYNCH scan.
  • ETN at $459.33 and HUBB at $519.53 — electrical-equipment continuation setups riding the industrials/AI-buildout theme; watch for follow-through above today’s highs.
  • MCK at $902.02 — medical-distribution continuation, +2.5%, riding CAH‘s positive read-through; defensive leadership fits the Cautious tape.
  • COMP at $12.69 — appears in both D9M and Reversal Bullish scans, sitting at daily supply ($13.19); a clean break there triggers.
  • Sector focus: Industrials and Utilities — defensive/value leadership plus the NVDA-driven AI electrical-equipment tailwind; fade mega-cap growth strength until CPI clears.

Strategy Outlook & Scenarios

  • Bullish scenario: an in-line or soft CPI (headline ≤0.1%) that pushes September odds toward a hold could re-broaden the tape — confirmation is breadth reclaiming 60%+ above 40-SMA and mega-caps stabilizing.
  • Bearish scenario: a hot CPI print revives September hike fears, lifts yields (10-yr already 4.68%) and pressures rate-sensitive groups — a break of Cautious would need pct_above_sma40 under 40% on a 3-day decline.
  • Signal counts: 2LYNCH 17, D9M 5, Reversal 5, Darvas 27 — continuation setups remain the plurality, confirming trend-following still edges out bottom-fishing.
  • Tomorrow’s regime forecast: Cautious — CPI is a binary catalyst; breadth at 57.1% keeps us mid-range with no directional edge until the number prints.

Action Codes

  • CRT (Controlled Risk Taking): Cautious regime with a binary CPI event — keep size trimmed and take only clean setups near demand.
  • T3A (Think 3 Days Ahead): CPI, the 10-yr auction and CRWV/SMCI results all land in the next 24-48 hours — map reactions before adding risk.

Summary & Final Thoughts

  • Game plan: stay patient into 8:30 ET CPI, then trade the reaction — lean on industrials/utilities and continuation leaders (MELI, ETN, MCK) if breadth firms.
  • Key risk: a hot CPI print that lifts yields and revives the September-hike toss-up, hitting mega-cap growth and rate-sensitive sectors.
  • Overall stance: selective and defensive — the tape held Cautious with resilient breadth, but the mega-cap fade and event risk argue for controlled sizing.
Share:

More Episodes

Find momentum stocks in milliseconds

Try WaveFinder