Next Day Prep #295: Record Close, Bullish Internals: Is AMD the Final Confirmation? – Tuesday 8/4/2026

Welcome to Wave Rider next day prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. The S&P just closed above 7700 for the first time ever, while oil crashed almost 6% the same day. Coincidence? Not even a little. Okay, so let's break it down because the regime still says cautious. This morning the call was cautious at 61.3% above the 40 day. Did the clothes validate it or challenge it? It validated it and then some. Breath actually rose to 64.3% by the bell. So it's strengthened. It's strengthened. And here's the thing. That's two straight sessions of breath expansion now. 61.3 to 64.3 in a day. Two days up in a row. That's not a bounce. That's a strengthening recovery. Right. And what was the biggest surprise for you? Honestly, the bull bear gauge. The 4% reading was 561 bulls versus 80 bears. Wait, 561 to 80? 561 to 80. That is decisively bullish internally. The internals are running way ahead of the official label. So the tapes already there, but the regime hasn't been led in the door yet. Exactly. It's knocking on bullish's door. Nobody's answered. And the records, this wasn't just the S&P. No. Dow record, NASDAQ record, the NASDAQ led at plus 2.59%. That's a broad day. It's a broad day. So my one line verdict, the market's on the doorstep, but discipline says wait for confirmation. Okay, so the internals are bullish. Let's see which signals actually prove that on the tape. Yeah, let's. Because your continuation scans lit up. Why did two lynch and d'arvis fire so heavily today? So 33 2-inch signals and 38 d'arvis box breakouts. That's depth, right? That's not one mega-cap tracking everything. Right. That many continuation signals firing at once tells you it's broad accumulation, not a narrow meltup. And the catalyst was Palantir. Palantir plus 29.42 to 162.61. Oh, wow. Beat and raise, top performer in the whole S&P. It basically revalidated the entire AI momentum trade in one print. And the semis were the engine underneath it. The engine, yeah. The semiconductor index up 6.6%. Marvel plus 12.81, Intel plus 10.92, ARM plus 17.4, AMD plus 7% going into its own earnings. That's a monster group move. And look at the NASDAQ internals. Advancers crushed decliners. 3672 to 1222. 3-1. 3-1. That's your proof it was broad, not just the usual suspects. Okay, but here's where it gets interesting. Some names still got punished. NRG, Chipotle. Why did they fail on a day like this? Because the market's still discriminated on fundamentals. NRG down 15.48%, active down 16.62%, Chipotle down 9.70%. On a rally day. On a huge rally day. And that's the lesson. Broad bread doesn't mean blind buying. Miss your number, you still get taken to the woodshed. So today rewarded the prepared and punished the mist. Perfectly put. Okay, so let's build the plan for tonight and tomorrow. Two big after hours wild cards, right? AMD and SpaceX. AMD is the one I care about. Why AMD specifically? Because its data center and helios commentary is the follow-through test for the whole semis move. If that lands, semis extend. And SpaceX? First public print, still below its IPO price, pure wildcard. Okay, so give me the gap up, gap down, game plan. Bullish scenario, breadth clears 65% and semis extend on AMD. That's your regime upgrade to bullish, plain and simple. And the bearish side? A failed AMD or SpaceX reaction or an oil driven reversal that drags breadth back below 60% on distribution volume. That triggers a downgrade. And there's data in the morning too. There is ADP employment, consensus 75k versus 98k prior. ISM non-manufacturing, consensus 54.7 versus 54.0 plus final services PMI. Okay, give me watch list levels. NET at 301.33, two-inch continuation, 1.6 relative volume, AVGO at 418.07, that's a 9M catalyst, but watch supply in your 486. NUE at 274.07, a Darvest breakout on the specialty steel theme. SMCI at 31.69, but it needs to clear supply between 33.97 and 36.51 first. So SMCI has got work to do. Has to earn it. And my regime forecast, that two-day breadth up trend plus the 561 to 802, both point to a bullish flip, if AMD delivers. So it all hinges on the Encore. The Encore has to deliver. Okay, let's land it. breadth is one clean push past 65% from a full bullish upgrade, but tonight's AMD and SpaceX plus tomorrow's ADP and ISM decide if this has legs. Watch AMD's after hours reaction closely and check breadth first thing before you size up any new continuation entries. Prepared and patient, that's the game. We'll see you tomorrow for the next prep. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider next day prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. See you next time.