Next Day Prep #294: From Cautious to Almost Bullish: Inside the One-Day Reversal – Monday 8/3/2026

Welcome to WaveRider next day prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. SoxIndex was down 3% before lunch. It closed up 1.1%. That's not noise. That's a signal. Let's break down how cautious almost became bullish in one. Yeah, and that reversal? That's the whole story of the day right there. Mm-hmm. Okay, so start me at the top. Morning regime was cautious, digit. It held, but it firmed. Hard. We went from 54.5% above the 40 day to 60.87% by the close. Oh wow. In one session? One session. That's a plus 6.3 move on the 40 SMA plus 6 on the 20. Right. Honestly, exactly. And the tape was record breaking. S&P up 1.5% above 7600 NASDAQ up 2.1% and the Dow closed at an all-time high. The Dow at an all-time high. So look, right? And here's the number that mattered most to me. The bull bear gauge. 387 bulls versus 36 bears. Wait, 387 to 36? 387 to 36. That's not just headline names dragging the index up. That's broad participation. Exactly. So what actually lit the... I ran. Trump called off the plan strikes and the whole risk picture flipped. Crude created 5% to $80.36. Wow. And bonds? 10-year yield down 6 basis points to 4.69%. Oil yields equities. One thread ties all of it. Right. Right. Okay. But here's my worry. Is that a real rewriting or just... Honestly, it's relief. This was a relief driven accumulation day. Not a fundamental shift. Advancers led all session 8 of 11 sectors green. So the pressure valve released. The valve released. The morning caution was justified. The afternoon was the market exhaling. Yeah. Right. So if buyers were that broad, the signals should show it. What actually... Fired? I mean, this is the part I love. Continuation setups completely dominated. Dervis box fired 37 signals. Two lynch fired 23. Oh, wow. And reversal. Two. Two? Out of all that. Two. And that tells you everything. A broad trending advance favors continuation over mean reversion. The signals confirmed the breadth. Right. See, that's the thing I wanted to get at. The data matched the... Set ups. You know what? Perfectly. When the whole crowd walks one direction, you don't fight it. Yeah. Totally. Okay. Let's explain something to me. Sally Beauty rallied on a revenue miss. That feels backwards. It does, right? SBH up 7.82%. But dig underneath, 52.4% gross margin and they maintained guidance. Hmm. So the margin story outweighed the miss. So basically, margin quality beat the headline. That's the lesson. Don't stop reading at the top line. Sure. And then Maria, the opposite, right? Total opposite. EPS grew 20% and the stock fell. 20% growth and it dropped. Why? Soft Q3 guide. They gave $2.74 to $2.82 and that's what the market traded on. Guidance often matters more than the print. Right. So the beats already priced in, but the forecast is the tell. Like every time. And meanwhile, energy and defensives lagged. CVH down 1.85%, staples down 0.3%, capital rotated hard into growth. And NVDA? Here's the thing. Re-claimed its 50-day at 2585 intraday. That's the technical confirmation of the same broadening strength. Yeah. Okay. So that's the scorecard. Now the real test comes after the bell. What are we watching tomorrow? AMD. After the close, that's the direct test of whether the socks reversal was real strength or just a short squeeze. Right. The final exam. Okay. So basically, pre-market, you've got CAT, MCD, PFE, MRK, DD, DUK, SPOT. After hours, AMD, AMGN, A-N-E-T, B-K-N-G, G-I-L-D, W-Y-N-N, P-I-N-S, C-O-I-N. Mhmm. And data? 8.30, trade balance, consensus minus $73 billion, then 10 o'clock factory orders at plus 0.2% and job openings. Prior with $7.594 million. Got it. Okay. Give me levels. What's on the watch list? I mean, Oracle, it's at $141.86, but their supply overhead at $149 to $154, so I want continuation above today's high on volume. BA held $133.44, triggers above $133. Okay. And WSM? $239.88 on 1.8 times relative volume. I'd want a tight pullback there, not a chase. Right. What about NBIS? That one ran. Extended. It's near supply at $221 to $224. Let it come to you. Don't sprint the last mile. Yeah. So what flips this bullish? Hold above $7,600 and push-breath passed 65% on the 40 SMA. That upgrades us. And the bear case? Breath back under 50%, a failed AMD reaction or crude snapping back on Iran deal doubts. Got it. So the forecast is? Cautious to bullish. The trajectory is improving, but mega-cap concentration keeps it short of a clean upgrade. Right. That's the perfect place to leave it. Keep your levels tight on Oracle and BA. Let NBIS come to you and watch that 65% breath line. We'll know a lot more by tomorrow's close. See you then. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Next Day Prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. See you next time.