Next Day Prep — 2026-05-04
Situation Awareness: Cautious. Stocks moved lower in broad fashion after UAE intercepts Iranian missiles, causing a spike in oil prices and weighing on stocks. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive. Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices pressured risk assets today. Regime context — 64.18% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 69.62% prior day, regime shifted from Bullish to Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 151 bulls vs. 186 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.
SIP: FSTR HTCO AKAN BZAI
- What’s working today: SIP momentum signals; strategy signal counts — 2LYNCH: 15, D9M: 15, Reversal: 15
- Leading sectors: Energy (+1.8%); leading themes: Revenue, Marketshare, NewProduct
- Key event — Escalation in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran, causing oil prices to spike.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Bullish (69.62%), closing is Cautious (64.18%) — failed, geopolitical tensions dragged sentiment down.
- DEP watchlist: ASAN, AXTI, FIG
- SIPS: COKE, EVH, FFIV
Market Scorecard
- Dow closed at 48941.90, down -1.13%; Nasdaq closed at 25067.80, down -0.19%; S&P 500 closed at 7200.75, down -0.41%.
- NYSE Adv/Dec 776/1969, Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1929/2931. Breadth weakening.
- Volume: NYSE 1.20 bln, Nasdaq 7.88 bln. Distribution day.
Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t
- Tyson Foods (TSN) gained +7.96% after topping earnings estimates.
- Energy sector was the only sector to escape with a gain, up +0.6%. Crude oil futures settled $4.44 higher (+4.4%) at $106.28 per barrel.
- Courier stocks such as UPS (-10.47%), CHRW (-9.06%), and FDX (-9.11%) were among the worst-performing S&P 500 components after Amazon (AMZN) announced the launch of Amazon Supply Chain Services. The industrials sector (-1.2%) lagged as a result.
- NYSE Adv 776, Dec 1969, Nasdaq Adv 1929, Dec 2931. Breadth deteriorating.
Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
- Tyson Foods (TSN) moved higher +7.96% after topping earnings estimates.
- Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) moved lower -8.56% after missing revenue estimates and issuing disappointing guidance.
- Tomorrow’s economic data: No specific data mentioned.
- Tomorrow’s key earnings to watch: Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reported earnings after the close today.
Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups
- ASAN at $7.22 — D9M setup forming, software sector.
- AXTI at $106.07 — D9M setup, AXTI gained 10.5% today.
- FIG at $19.99 — D9M setup, software sector.
- EBAY at $109.34 — 9M catalyst after GameStop’s offer, focus on deal news reaction.
- Focus on Energy sector tomorrow given rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.
Strategy Outlook & Scenarios
- Bullish scenario: S&P 500 regains 7200.75 level and holds above, geopolitical tensions de-escalate, tech sector rebounds.
- Bearish scenario: S&P 500 breaks below 7196.46, oil prices continue to surge, driving interest rates higher, further escalation of U.S.-Iran conflict.
- Strategy signal counts (2LYNCH: 71, D9M: 79, Reversal: 93) — D9M and Reversal are up vs yesterday, 2LYNCH dipped.
- Tomorrow’s regime forecast — Cautious.
Action Codes
- CRT — Controlled Risk Taking [Cautious conditions favor careful position sizing and tight stops]
- T3A — Think 3 Days Ahead [Cautious markets require planning trades with a short-term outlook.]
Summary & Final Thoughts
- Be selective and defensive tomorrow, focusing on potential breakouts in leading sectors like Energy, monitoring for geopolitical de-escalation, and key setup of FIG and AXTI tomorrow.
- Key risk is escalating geopolitical tensions driving further oil price increases.
- The overall market stance is selective.