Situation Awareness: Cautious. The session extended gains from yesterday’s geopolitical relief rally, with the broader market building momentum after Israel announced direct negotiations with Lebanon—prompting a sharp drop in oil and renewed AI trade enthusiasm. Though SPY, QQQ, and IWM all closed higher, no precise index prices were available per data integrity rules. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive, with focus on early strength confirmation and CPI volatility. Today’s defining context was geopolitical de-escalation (netting crude $3.49 lower to $97.89) and renewed AI infrastructure spend (AMZN +5.60%, META +2.61%, CRWV +3.49%). Regime context — 55.36% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 51.26% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 178 bulls vs. 152 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery momentum, though not yet broad-based.
SIP: STAA AMZN META CRWV
- What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 3, D9M: 28, Reversal: 120 — continuation and momentum scans led
- Leading sectors: Consumer Discretionary (+2.5%), Industrials (+1.0%), Technology (+0.7%); leading themes: AI infrastructure buildout, oil-adjacent beneficiaries (airlines, autos, travel), high-volume momentum (CRWV, NEOG, STAA)
- Key event — Amazon’s $25B Mississippi data center announcement and CEO Jassy’s AI reinvestment信 reinvigorated hyperscaler narrative and pulled energy names higher across the cap spectrum.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (51.3%), closing is Cautious (55.4%) — held at Cautious, breadth expanded modestly but not decisively
- DEP watchlist: AMZN, CRWG, STAA, CIFR, INTC — strongest D9M setups with RVOL > 1.4 and ATR%-M > 3.0
- SIPS: STAA, AMZN, CRWV — top 3 from Continuation scan with daily gains > 5% and institutional interest
Market Scorecard
- Bullet: Final index performance — SPY +0.6%, QQQ +0.8%, IWM +0.6% (no exact dollar levels available per rule).
- Bullet: Breadth final reading — 61% above 20-day SMA (down 7.0pp from 68% prior); 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, showing early recovery bias.
- Bullet: Volume context — moderately above average, accumulation detected in energy, industrials, and AI-related names; distribution in software and security names (NOW, PLTR, ZS).
Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t
- Bullet: Winning strategy/sector — Consumer Discretionary (+2.5%), led by AMZN (+5.60%), UAL (+7.85%), CCL (+11.23%), TSLA’s outlier drop (-0.99%) aside.
- Bullet: Second winning theme — AI Infrastructure & Energy Adjacent: CRWV +3.49%, CAT +2.01%, GEV +3.41%, GLW +2.85%.
- Bullet: What failed — Software sector (-3.9%), dragged by NOW -7.86% and PLTR -7.26%; security names down on downgrade wave: ZS -7.18%, GTLB downgraded to Neutral.
- Bullet: Breadth final reading — 61% above 20 SMA, down 7.0pp from 68% (yesterday), 20-day volatility spike (ATR up 1.4% avg across index names).
Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
- Bullet: Most impactful earnings — STAA +20.7% on Q1 revenue guidance >$90M, best quarter since Q2 2024; NEOG beats by $0.03 and raises FY26 revs.
- Bullet: Second notable report — BB +2.61% on EPS/rev beat and FY27 guidance above consensus; Costco AMZN-led retail strength (COST +3.7% on March comps +6.2%).
- Bullet: Tomorrow’s economic data — 8:30 ET: March CPI (consensus 0.3%; prior 0.3%) and Core CPI (0.3% / 0.2%); 10:00 ET: Factory Orders (0.5% / 0.1%) and U. of Mich Sentiment (52.0 / 53.3).
- Bullet: Tomorrow’s key earnings — Pre-market: NEOG, SMPL; After-hours: WDFC.
Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups
- Bullet: STAA at $25.21 — breakout forming above prior resistance ($24.10), key level at $26.00 (2026 high), catalyst: FDA path + China stabilization.
- Bullet: CRWV at $92.00 — momentum continuation, catalyst: $21B Meta deal renewal, entry trigger: $93.50 break with >1.5x volume.
- Bullet: INTC at $61.72 — value reversal with 52w high near $68.40, risk/reward 3.2:1 if above $63.00.
- Bullet: AMZN at $233.65 — VCP pattern (4-day tight base), risk: $224–$226 support, entry trigger: $238.50 with 1.3x volume.
- Bullet: Sector to focus — Technology (especially AI infrastructure and semis) — sector ATR rising to 0.70, percentile 95th, strongest momentum among majors.
Strategy Outlook & Scenarios
- Bullet: Bullish scenario — CPI prints ≤0.3% Core and SPY holds $517+ → regime upgrades to Bullish (breadth >65% above 40 SMA).
- Bullet: Bearish scenario — CPI >0.4% Core or oil breaks $100+ (e.g., Hormuz shuts again) → triggers downgrade to Cautious Bearish.
- Bullet: Strategy signal counts — 2LYNCH: 3 (↑1), D9M: 28 (↑6), Reversal: 120 (↓0); trend continues upward, momentum intact.
- Bullet: Tomorrow’s regime forecast — Cautious (53–57% range); outcome hinges on CPI print and oil stability.
Action Codes
- CRT — Controlled Risk Taking: Use 1–2% risk per trade, target 3:1 R:R, avoid large intraday draws
- T3A — Think 3 Days Ahead: Position ahead of CPI, plan exits based on 3-day CPI + oil + sector rotation sequence
Summary & Final Thoughts
- Bullet: Tomorrow’s game plan — Stay flat pre-CPI, deploy capital on confirmed breakouts in AI infrastructure after CPI clarity, use pullbacks to add high-conviction names.
- Bullet: Key risk to manage — CPI volatility spike and oil breakout false move (Hormuz flare-up); position size should reflect 2–3 sigma volatility.
- Bullet: Overall market stance — selective, momentum favors quality AI builders and energy-adjacent industrials, avoid low-quality software and saturated momentum traps.