Today’s Verdict
SA: Correction. The market shifted from a bearish morning bias (26.8% above 40‑day SMA) to a correction regime as breadth improved modestly to 17.6% above the 40‑day SMA, indicating a tentative pause in the sell‑off but still weak overall.
SIP: FDX (raised FY26 EPS guidance, +3% funds increase) and PL (Q4 beat, revenue up 41% yr/yr, stock +25.5%).
- Regime threading — morning SA called Bearish (26.8% pct_above_sma40); closing regime is Correction (17.6%). The shift held, showing a mild easing of bearish pressure.
- Today’s action was consistent with the morning bearish call early on, but the late‑day bounce in financials and energy prevented a deeper bearish outcome, surprising to the downside.
Market Scorecard
- Final index levels: S&P 500 ≈ 6,506 (‑1.5%), Nasdaq Composite ≈ 20,500 (‑2.0%), DJIA ≈ 42,300 (‑1.0%); Russell 2000 ≈ 2,050 (‑2.3%).
- Breadth final reading: % Above 20‑SMA 17%, % Above 40‑SMA 17.65%; Sentiment 4% Very Bearish, Sentiment 40SMA Oversold; Bull 4%:31 / Bear 4%:313.
- Volume context: Heavy options/futures expiration day boosted activity; AVOL for SPY ~ 3.5M shares, indicating distribution pressure as sellers dominated despite the expiration‑day spike.
Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t
- Winning strategy/sector: Financials (+0.2%) led by Marsh McLennan (MRSH +3.26%) and Aon (AON +2.73%), benefitting from risk‑off flows into defensive, dividend‑paying names.
- Second winning theme: Planet Labs (PL) gapped +25.5% after a Q4 beat (EPS breakeven vs. expected loss, revenue $86.8 mln, +41% yr/yr) and raised FY27 outlook to $415‑440 mln.
- What failed: Utilities sector (−4.1%) with Vistra (−12.65%) and Constellation Energy (−10.90%) suffering double‑digit losses as higher yields hurt rate‑sensitive names; Real Estate (−3.2%) also declined on rising 10‑yr yield to 4.39%.
- Breadth final reading and trend context: % Above 40‑SMA at 17.6% (up from 26.8% bearish morning) shows a tentative correction but still below the 20% threshold needed for a bullish resumption.
Key Earnings & Economic Calendar
- Most impactful earnings today: Planet Labs (PL) beat EPS, revenue up 41% yr/yr, stock +25.5%; FedEx (FDX) beat EPS by $1.10, raised FY26 EPS guidance, shares up ~3% in after‑hours.
- Second notable report: Super Micro Computer (SMCI) fell −33.3% after DOJ indictment news; Orla Mining (ORLA) beat EPS $0.10 but missed revenue, shares flat.
- Tomorrow’s economic data (Mon Mar 23): January Construction Spending at 10:00 ET, prior 0.3% (consensus ~0.2%).
- Tomorrow’s key earnings to watch (Tue Mar 24): Pre‑market: CNXC, CNM, SFD; After‑hours: AIR, BRZE, GME, KBH, WOR.
Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups
- PL at $33.87 — continuation breakout after Q4 beat, RVOL 5.0, ATR%-M 4.4, risk 58.0%; watch for follow‑through above $35.00 on volume.
- SATL at $3.61 — 9M Catalyst setup, up 10.1% on RVOL 2.9, ATR%-M 0.2, risk 62.9%; entry on close above $3.80 with steady volume.
- ANNA at $7.04 — extreme momentum (85.8% Chg%, RVOL 106), risk 283%; speculative long only if price holds above $7.50 with declining volatility.
- BWMN at $27.09 — Reversal Bullish candidate, up 1.5%, RVOL 5.4, ATR%-M -3.1, risk 76.9%; look for a bounce off the $26.50 support with rising RSI.
- Sector to focus on tomorrow: Energy — despite today’s flat finish, the sector ATR shows +4.71 strength and geopolitical risk premium may provide a short‑term bounce if oil retraces below $98.
Strategy Outlook & Scenarios
- Bullish scenario: Oil retreats below $95/bbl and 10‑yr yield falls under 4.30%; confirmation if S&P 500 reclaims the 6,550‑6,600 zone with breadth >20% above 40‑day SMA.
- Bearish scenario: Geopolitical escalation pushes oil above $105/bbl or 10‑yr yield >4.60%; would trigger a regime downgrade to Bearish if breadth drops below 15% above 40‑day SMA.
- Strategy signal counts (vs. yesterday): 2LYNCH 38 signals (steady), D9M 57 signals (up slightly), Reversal Bullish 144 signals (elevated); indicates mixed short‑term pressure with some reversal interest.
- Tomorrow’s regime forecast: Cautious — if breadth stays between 15‑20% above 40‑day SMA, expect a choppy, range‑bound market; a break above 20% would shift to Bullish.
Action Codes
- CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) — evidence: market remains in Correction regime with limited upside; employ tight stops and position sizing.
- BBT (Big Bang Theory) — evidence: expiration‑day volume spike and sector rotations (Financials/Energy) suggest a potential sudden shift if catalysts align.
Summary & Final Thoughts
- Tomorrow’s game plan: watch for a follow‑through breakout in PL and SATL while maintaining defensive exposure in Financials if oil holds below $98.
- Key risk to manage: renewed geopolitical tensions that could spike oil yields and reignite broad‑based selling.
- Overall market stance: Selective — focus on high‑relative‑strength setups (PL, SATL) and sector‑specific trades rather than broad market exposure.