Next Day Prep #227 Bearish

Next Day Prep #227: Bearish Regime Holds—Tactical Flare, Not Structural Shift – Thursday 3/19/2026

March 19, 2026 5:24

Tickers Mentioned

Episode Summary

Despite a late-day energy rally, the market’s bearish regime held firm—breadth decay, weak volume, and earnings dislocation revealed the underlying distribution pattern. Tomorrow’s test hinges on SPY clearing 464.50 with conviction.

Key Takeaways

SPY closed below 200-day MA at 6,619 — Bearish regime confirmed.
Energy outperformed (+1.5%) while tech and materials lagged despite earnings beats.
Micron and Signet beat but sold off — profit-taking dominates post-bounce.
Tomorrows key catalysts: New Home Sales, Philly Fed, FDX earnings.
Energy and AI/cyber play setups: PL, ACN, CVX with VCP breakouts.

Today’s Verdict

SA: Bearish. The market failed to reclaim its 200-day moving average (6,619), closing just modestly lower with the S&P (-0.3%), Nasdaq (-0.3%), and DJIA (-0.4%). Late-session relief from Netanyahu’s geopolitical remarks briefly pushed the index above key technical levels, but conviction remained weak—volume was light and sectors outside energy showed little resilience. This confirms the bearish regime, as the market lacks the strength to reverse the post-Fed pivot.

SIP: DIA (-0.24% from open), HUMA (-12.5% post-offering), AGL (-13.4% post-split), PICS (-20.1% post-Q4)

Regime threading: Morning SA called Bearish (27.2% above SMA40); closing regime remains Bearish (26.8%)—held firm, confirming downward momentum persists.
Today’s action matched expectations: no broad-based bounce, only energy and late-day geopolitical lift. Tech and materials underperformed despite earnings strength at MU and SIG—profit-taking dominated.

Market Scorecard

SPY closed at 461.06 (-0.24% from open, -0.3% for day); QQQ at 170.92 (-0.3%); IWM at 205.73 (+0.7%, outperformed as late bounce hit mid-caps).
Breadth: 154 bullish vs 183 bearish signals (net -29); 5-day trend: bearish (down from neutral last Friday), with only 34% of stocks above 20-day SMA.
Volume: Below average — S&P on 1.87B vs 2.05B 20-day avg; distribution confirmed (down tick volume led in afternoon).

Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t

Energy sector led with +1.5% gain; CVX (+1.4%), PSX (+3.2%), PL (+8.7%) powered on oil strength and supply-risk narrative.
Technology was flat (-0.13 ATR), buoyed by CIEN (+7.11%, up 22.3% weekly) and strong chip sector momentum (PHLX Semiconductor +0.8%).
Materials (-1.6%) and Health Care (-2.6%) both dragged — NEM (-6.96%) tumbled with gold (-5.9% to $4,605.70); ABBV stuck in consolidation ahead of AAD event.
Consumer Discretionary (-0.9%) failed to recover — TSLA (-3.18%, $380.30), MOS (-5.69%) under pressure from shipping volatility.

Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

MU beat with $3.01 EPS, $14.98B revs, guided Q3 EPS above consensus, raised dividend—but stock fell -3.78% on capex concerns (+$20B) and profit-taking after 12% YTD gain.
SIG rose +13.8% to $89.62 after Q4 beat and Q1 comp guidance of +0.5% to +2.5% (vs. -0.7% in Q4), though FY27 EPS midpoint ($9.77) missed expectations.
Tomorrow’s economic data: **January New Home Sales** at 10:00 ET (consensus: 693K, prior: 712K revised); March Philly Fed Index at 10:00 ET (consensus: 4.7, prior: 16.3).
Key earnings tomorrow: DLTR (pre), BEKE (pre), SAIC (pre), ASO (pre), HUYA (pre), TME (pre), GDS (pre), ACN (pre), BABA (pre), FIVE (pre), DLO (pre), HTFL (pre), MU (pre), FDX (after), PL (after).

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups

PL at $26.96 — break above $28.20 resistance with volume surge (5.9% up day, +8.7% yesterday); VCP pattern confirmed with tight daily range (0.9% range today), entry ~$28.30, stop $25.80.
ACN at $203.55 — 20% upside from 52-week low, +4.3% today on $2B AI/cyber partnership with Microsoft; breakout above $200 resistance, volume 1.4x avg.
MU at $444.27 — pullback setup forming off $460 resistance (20% move from earnings); risk/reward 3:1 if dips to $430–$432 support (40-day + Fibonacci 61.8%), catalyst: capex clarity in Q3 guide.
CVX at $201.44 — energy sector ATR ranking 97th percentile; breakout above $198.50 confirms 3-day VCP; target $210, stop $195.
Focus on Energy tomorrow—geopolitical risk premium still high (Iran/Qatar LNG attack, Strait of Hormuz reopen), and crude settled at $95.71, with late dip to $94.14 offering entry setup.

Strategy Outlook & Scenarios

Bullish scenario: SPY closes above 464.50 (20-day SMA + 1% ADR), volume surges to >2.1B, and Netanyahu’s “war will be over soon” comment leads to oil drop below $90—triggers regime upgrade to Cautious.
Bearish scenario: SPY breaks below 457.00 (March low), yield spikes above 4.40% on weak job data or renewed Iran escalation—triggers deeper correction to 450–452.
Strategy signals: 2LYNCH = 22 (up 2 from yesterday), D9M = 27 (unchanged), Reversal Bullish = 482 (unchanged); trend remains bearish bias with narrow breakout potential in energy/tech.
Morning regime forecast: Cautious-Bearish — breadth hasn’t improved, but energy strength and late rebound prevent full downside escape.

Action Codes

BTFD: Energy and some tech (CIEN, MU) offer tactical dips; only 25% of SPY above 40-day SMA, heavy institutional selling (short-covering expected Tuesday).
TTT: PL, ACN, and CVX are in 3-day tight VCPs — minimal drawdowns (<5%), high ADR volatility ready to erupt.

Summary & Final Thoughts

Tomorrow’s game plan: Buy dips in energy and select tech with volume confirmation; avoid broad exposure until SPY clears 464.50.
Key risk: Yields spike on strong Philly Fed or renewed Iran escalation (e.g., Kharg Island strike)—SPY could drop 3% in <45 minutes.
Overall market stance: Selective—only trade setups with tight stop (<5%) and clear catalyst; avoid momentum chasing on low-volume days.

Welcome to Waverider Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. So the market had that late day spark. Was it fire or just flint? Oh, wow. Yeah, totally. I mean, we saw energy surge, oil gopped, but the real story was what didn't happen. Right. So today's verdict, morning regime was bearish and it... It held. Yeah. 26.8% above SMA 40 at close. Rare consistency in a volatile session. Whoa, that's rare. And it held without a volume surge. And that's not a green light. That's a red flag. Right. Got it. And breath? Oh, man. Only 34% above 20-day SMA. Net negative 29 bullish signals. Downtick volume dominated the afternoon. Classic distribution. Yeah. Wait, so energy lifted, but the engine couldn't sus... Sustain it? Exactly. Like a sprinter who starts strong, but lacks stamina. Mm-hmm. But still didn't reclaim the 200-day MA. $6,619. That's the structural... Anchor. Right, exactly. And it still didn reclaim the 200 MA Right right So the big surprise PL and CVX popped Oh wow But even with that tech and materials dragged Exactly. MU beat EPS, guided Q3 above consensus, and still fell negative 3.78%. Yeah. Hold on. Beat EPS and raised the dividend and got... Sold? Right, right. And honestly, that's the key. Markets don't price results, they price expectations. CapEx concerns derailed it. Wow. Ouch, that's brutal. Exactly. Like, you could cure cancer and the market would say, but what about next quarter's guidance? Right. So that's why the technicals still matter, even when earnings look good. Exactly. Yeah, totally. So, basically, let's talk SCAN. Why did PL, ACN, CVX work and others fade? OK. PL had a tight three-day VCP, you know, the classic VCP, plus 8.7% day one, plus 5.9% next. Volume surged to 1.4x. Entry at $28.30, stop $25.80. Tight risk reward, geopolitical tailwind. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. And ACN? Broke on 1 volume no false break Classic accumulation then breakout Volume confirmation was everything Oh wow Right, volume, not just price action. Yeah. CVX, tight VCP, plus 8.7%, then plus 5.9%, oil plus geopolitical lift. Target, $210, stop, $195. But look, only energy held. Everything else faded. That's the distribution pattern. Right. So this wasn't a regime shift, just tactical. Exactly. And that's why tomorrow's test is conviction, not headlines, breadth and volume. Sure. So what's the playbook for the open? Key levels, SPY at $4.6450. That's 20-day SMA plus 1% ADR. Break above it plus oil under $90. Regime flips to cautious. And the bearish scenario? SPY under 457, March low and yields over 4.40%, dropped to 450 to 452. Pre-market earnings, what's the watch list? PL, post-split. MU, CabX Clarity. DLTR, BABA. Top entries, PL, $28.30, $25.80. ACN, breakout above $200. CVX target Absolutely because they defined by by confluence Yes volume tight range clear stop not sentiment And Philly Fed new home sales Both at 10 ET Philly Fed surprise matters more than the number. If it's way higher, yields jump, SPY drops. Mm-hmm. Okay, so today's breath decay means? Here's the thing. Tomorrow stays bearish unless SPY clears 464.50 and volume confirms. One close isn't enough. Mm-hmm. So the edge is in the... Details. Yeah. Scan for VCPs. Watch SPY's 464.50 prepare for pre-market earnings. That's how you navigate this regime. So to... Wrap this up. Markets don't trend on headlines. They trend on breath and volume. Today's flare was tactical, not structural. Tomorrow's test is conviction. Exactly. So scan, watch, and prepare. Right. Because the market's not broken. It's just patient. You're listening to Waverider Next Day Prep. I'm Gakruks. I'm Algenib. And don't forget to check the 464.50 at the open. And don't forget to check the 464.50 at the open. That's all for today's episode of Waverider Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. See you next time.

Next Day Prep #228 Neutral

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Today’s Verdict

Market Scorecard

Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t

Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups

Strategy Outlook & Scenarios

Action Codes

Summary & Final Thoughts

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