Next Day Prep #225: Oil at $99: How Geopolitics Hijacked the Market and What to Do Monday – Friday 3/13/2026

Welcome to WaveRider Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. Honestly, oil is $1 away from $100. And today, it didn't just move energy stocks. It killed a promising rally across the entire market. We're going to break down exactly what happened, what it means, and how to trade Monday when geopolitics, not earnings, not economic data, is the only game in town. Yeah, and honestly, this was brutal to watch. Mm-hmm. Okay, so we had a real rally going this morning. What changed, and how bad was the damage by the close? Crude oil. That was the pivot point. We're talking about oil surging to 98.56, up 3% on the day. And here's the thing. This isn't just some headline that's going to fade by Monday. Right. And that's confirmed deployment at this point, right? This isn't a rumor. You know what? Confirmed. The Pentagon is deploying additional Marines and warships to the Strait of Hormuz. That signals sustained supply disruption risk. So the morning rally, it had no chance once crude accelerated. Oh, man. So basically, how bad was the damage? Look, S&P finished down 0.6 percent, NASDAQ down 0.9, Dow down 0.3. But here's what really tells the story. The defensive rotation? Exactly. Utilities up 0.9 percent, consumer staples up 0.5. That's classic institutional de-risking, not just profit-taking. Yeah I mean an energy only gained 0 on a day oil surged 3 How does that even happen I mean that the market pricing and demand destruction alongside supply fears simultaneously It like the market is saying yeah oil is going higher but what if that kills demand And that tension tells you everything about where we are right now. Wow. So that's the macro damage. But inside that sell-off, the breadth picture gets even more interesting. Let's get into the signal review. OK, so before we get into individual names, let's set the context. 79% of stocks are below their 20-day moving average. That's… 4 out of 5 stocks underwater. 4 out of 5, yeah. We've got 141 bear signals versus 57… Wait, that's nearly 2.5 to 1. Exactly, yeah. Sellers are firmly in control. But here's the tension. Reversal bullish signals are spiking to 129. Think of it like a spring being compressed. The breath says the market's under heavy pressure, but those reversal signals are the spring coiling tighter. Mm-hmm. OK, so four out of five stocks underwater, sellers running two to one. That's not a dip. That's a regime. But the spring is coiling. Right. It doesn't tell you when it releases, but the energy is there. And that tension is the context for everything we saw today. Yeah, totally. Wait, SanDisk is up 7% on this day? When everything tech is getting crushed? I mean, memory storage. SanDisk up 6.9%, Micron up 5.13%, WDC up 4.3%. These names have their own supply-demand cycle that's decoupling from broader software weakness. It's like a rainstorm hitting a neighborhood. Most houses get soaked but the ones on higher ground stay dry Memory storage is on higher ground right now Oh wow And WDC at Shows a continuation setup with institutional backing This isn't a one-day fluke. Right, right. Okay, flip side. Adobe beat earnings and still dropped nearly 8%. Walk me through that. So Adobe beat. Dropped 8%, yeah. CEO departure news. Beat on earnings dropped 7.58% because the narrative just got rewritten overnight. And honestly, in a market where 79% of stocks are below their 20-day moving average, negative catalysts get amplified, not absorbed. The contagion bled into Oracle, down 2.55%, creating sector-wide pressure. Here's the coaching lesson. You can have the right fundamental thesis and still get blindsided by an event catalyst. In a week tape, the market doesn't give you credit for being right on earnings. So we've got a bearish trend, a coiling spring, and we head into a weekend with oil at 98.56 and geopolitical risk that doesn't clock out. What does Monday's calendar give us? So the after hours landscape is quiet. No major earnings catalysts to reset the narrative. And Monday, no CPI, no Fed speakers. Nothing. Nothing. Which sounds like a relief, but... It's the opposite. It's a warning. When there's no economic data, oil doesn't share the spotlight with anything. Every crude tick is a direct equity market move with no buffer. The Pentagon deployment story isn going away Any weekend escalation lands directly on Monday open with full force Watch Crude Futures Sunday evening That your first read on Monday tone Yeah like and the level Here's the thing. That's the regime change trigger. How Crude behaves around that level Sunday night tells you which scenario you're walking into. Right. All right, so Monday is essentially an oil referendum. Let's build the playbook. Before we get into the setups, if you've been long growth stocks this week, this has been a grind. The discipline we're about to talk about isn't just for Monday. It's for protecting what you've got left. Absolutely. So two scenarios. Bullish case? Oil has to stabilize. We're talking below 95. Tech needs to reclaim those morning highs, and the S&P has to hold 4280. That's when the reversal bullish signals at 129 have their catalyst and the coiled spring releases. Mm-hmm. But oil stabilizing below 95 over a weekend with Marines deploying to the Strait of Hormuz, is that actually realistic? Are we setting up a false hope scenario? It's the lower probability path, you know, but it's the scenario where the oversold signals actually matter, and you need to know what it looks like so you can act on it, not chase it after the fact. Sure. Fair point. Bearish case? Crude breaks 100 decisively, tech continues the afternoon fade, and the S&P targets $42.50 as the next downside level. Oil at $100 is like a toll booth. Every sector pays. Every sector pays, yeah. And the growth... That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. See you next time.