Next Day Prep #213: NVIDIA’s Final Exam: One Stock, One Night, One Level – Wednesday 2/25/2026

Welcome to Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% today. Sounds like a solid day, right? But strip out the mega caps and the average stock gained almost nothing. That gap is the story. And tonight, NVIDIA reports after the close. Whatever happens in that report will tell us whether today's strength was real or borrowed. You know what? That equal weight number just hits you right in the face when you see it. Mm-hmm. Walk me through what that's actually telling us. So the equal weight S&P gained 0.1% versus the cap-weighted 0.8%. That's basically the whole day in two numbers. I mean, that's saying mega caps drove almost 100% of today's gains. One group of stocks carried the entire index. Right. So who's actually doing the heavy lifting? The heavy lifting? It's like a basketball team winning by 10 points, but only one player scored. If that player fouls out… The whole team's in trouble. Exactly. Look, SPY reclaimed its 50-day moving average at 6,896, which is huge technically. But the breath cushion underneath… it's thin. Oh, wow. Okay, so what does lows dropping 5.6% tell you about what's happening underneath the surface in the consumer? This isn't a one-day event. Consumer discretionary ATR is at the third percentile over 60 days. Third percentile? Third percentile. I mean, that's not consolidation. That's rotation fatigue. The housing and consumer weakness is a slow bleed, and it dragged Lenar down 4.9% today, too. Right, right. Right, right. So the market looks strong on the surface, but the internals are telling a different story. Within that narrow leadership, though, there were some very specific setups that worked. and one that a lot of people probably chased and shouldn't have. Oh, you're talking about coin. Coinbase was up 13 in one day Bitcoin up 8 Stock trading expansion news If you knew all of that at the open why wouldn you just buy it Because that like buying a concert ticket from a scalper after the show already started Yeah. So basically you're saying the news was real, the trade was already over. Exactly. The move is real, but the risk-reward is gone. You're buying someone else's gain. The lesson is identifying the 175 to 178 demand zone as the next entry, not chasing the explosion. Mm-hmm. So if coin was a trap, what were the clean setups that actually worked the way they were supposed to? AMANT was textbook, up 4.5% on 1.1x relative volume held above its breakout level. That's like a runner clearing the first hurdle cleanly. Sure. And the volume? Confirmed it. Volume confirmed institutional participation. It's at a 70.1 risk level with room to expand above $400. Right. Okay, AMAP makes sense. What about APP? Because that move was even… Even bigger? Yeah, APP was the momentum play, up 7.3% to $421.93, near all-time highs. Software sector momentum was the dominant theme, and APP had strong relative strength heading in. You know, momentum begets momentum when the sector's already leading. I mean, a hundred catalyst signals active, highest since mid-January. I don't know if that makes me feel better or worse about tomorrow. Honestly, both. It's an opportunity-rich environment, but only in specific sectors, tech and semis. That concentration is both the opportunity and the risk heading into tonight. And that concentration in tech and semis is exactly why what happens after the close tonight, Matt. Matters so much, because NVIDIA is the final exam for the whole tape. And every other stock in tech is getting graded on that. That curve, that's exactly right. As the market's most heavily weighted stock, its report sets the tone for the entire tech complex. Yeah totally NVIDIA closed at It been struggling to get back above since October What does that tell you about what the market is already pricing in Honestly the market pricing in a beat but not a blowout NVDA at struggling near means the bar is high, and the merely good report might not be enough to push through that resistance. Right, because $200 has been a ceiling for months. Exactly. And if it can't break through on a beat, that 50-day MA reclaim at $689.96 sense either becomes confirmed support or a failed reclaim that traps bulls. Oh, man. What about Salesforce and Snowflake? Reporting tonight, the key thing to watch is whether AI is driving net new revenue or just shifting existing spend. That distinction will tell us whether enterprise AI adoption is real or still a narrative. 26% in one day while Chipotle is guiding flat. What's the actual lesson there. I mean, 26 percent. That's a company telling the market it can grow when everyone else is guiding flat. Chipotle is basically saying same store sales are going nowhere. And Kava comes in with three to five percent growth guidance. And the market just rewards that instantly. It's the same story playing out everywhere right now. If you can grow, you get paid. If you can't, you get punished. Anything on the macro calendar tomorrow we need to worry about? Weekly jobless claims at 830 a.m., Consumer sentiment at 10 a.m. Low market moving potential. NVIDIA owns the narrative tomorrow. Okay. So we have a clear binary event and a clear technical level. That actually makes tomorrow easier to plan for if we do the planning now. Yeah, two scenarios. And you want the levels locked in before you go to sleep tonight. Right. Walk me through the bull case first. NVIDIA beats, what do you do and where? NVIDIA beats and guides confidently. SPY holds above $6,900. QQQ breaks above $560 resistance. Hunt continuation setups in AMAT above $400. APP consolidation above $415. And software leaders. Now the bear case, NVIDIA disappoints. Tech sells off 2 That fast That fast SPY breaks below the 50 at and suddenly the whole reclaim looks like a trap Pivot to utilities immediately Utilities Yeah And look I know that sounds weird, but utilities are actually moving right now. The ATR is at the 84th percentile, which almost never happens in a defensive sector. That's telling you something. And tighten all tech stops immediately. Wow. You keep saying wait 30 minutes. Why is that so hard for people to actually do after a binary event like this? Because everyone's watching the same number at the same time. And the first print almost never holds. Right. The initial reaction almost always overshoots, either relief buying that fades or panic selling that stabilizes. Trading in the first 30 minutes is driving in fog. The market needs time to find the real level. Urgency is exactly what gets traders into bad entries. Exactly. What's on the watch list? AMAT above $400, APP above $415, COIN pullback to $175 to $178, CAVA pullback to $78 to $80. Okay. Wait, COIN is on the pullback watch list after a 13% day? That's the whole point. You don't chase the 13%, you wait for it to come back to you. 175 to 178 is where the demand is. That's the trade. Right. Today's narrow rally reclaimed a critical technical level, but that equal weight number told the real story. This market is running on a very short list of names. And NVIDIA is at the top of that list. The biggest mistake tomorrow is assuming today's strength means tomorrow is safe. Have your two scenarios ready before the open. Wait 30 minutes after the number settles. And remember, in a stock picker's market, precision beats conviction every time. Know your levels before you sleep tonight. Before you sleep tonight, write down your NVIDIA reaction plan. Not what you hope happens, but exactly what you'll do if it goes the other way. That's what separates prepared from reactive. We'll see you on the other side. That's all for today's episode of Next Day Prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. See you next time.