Morning Dose: Market Turbulence Red Futures, Rising Oil, & Earnings Jit… – Thursday 2/19/2026

Welcome to the morning dose. Everything you need to know before the market opens. Let's dive in. Yes and P500 just hit fresh year-to-date highs, so why are three out of four stocks still stuck below their short-term moving averages? Something doesn't add up. Let's get into it. This is the morning dose. Morning everybody. Okay, so we've got this wild set up this morning. S&P closed up 0.6% yesterday. Fresh highs for the year were back in positive territory for. For 2026, yeah, exactly. I mean, but here's the thing that's bugging me. Only 25% of stocks are above their 20-day moving average. Yeah, and that's the story right there. It's like a relay race, where one runner is doing three legs. Exactly. In video up 1.6% to 188, Amazon up 1.8% to 205. They're doing all the heavy lifting. But the real test today, the 50-day moving average at 6,894, we kissed it yesterday but couldn't hold. Right. And that's today's report card. Pass or fail? We'll know by the close. So what let the fuse run? Look, but here's where it gets interesting. Chip equipment got absolutely wrecked. AXELLA's down 16.7% on 7.3 times average volume. That's not a pullback. That's a trapdoor. Yeah. Viko instruments down 14.6% on 6 times volume. Same story. So within semi-conductors, it's like a restaurant where the stakes are selling out, but- The kitchen equipment supplier just got fired. The end product is hot. The tools to make it are out of favor. Right. And that connects to the bigger theme here, which is selectivity. So talk to me about the breadth numbers, because they're pretty ugly. Okay, so only 25% of stocks above their 20-day moving average. But 58% are above their 40-day. So the medium term picture is better than the short term. Right. But here's what's really telling. Technology sector Z score is at minus 1.35, 15th percentile. Wow. Yeah, exactly. Communication services at minus 1.29, 12th percentile. Both have just deteriorated sharply from January highs. But the index is at highs. Mm-hmm. Because mega-caps are masking the weakness underneath. And then you've got defensive sectors elevated. Consumer defensive at the 80th percentile, right? Yeah, and that tells me traders are hedging even as they buy growth. They're talking out of both sides of their mouths. I mean, so if this is a market where you have to be selective, not celebratory, what should traders be watching at the... At the open? Yeah. Good question. In video at 188 needs to reclaim 190 to confirm continuation. That's the key level. Watch for institutional accumulation above yesterday's high. And then my cron at 421 needs to hold 415 support for the move toward 440, exactly, exactly. But here's my favorite setup, Striker at 377. Medical devices. 122% risk efficiency with defined risk at the 50-day moving average. When institutional money lines up like that at a technical level, you pay attention. And then Norwegian Cruise Line at 2435, compressing at a tight pattern ahead of cruise season. Coiled spring setup. Yeah, ATR is only 1.7%. That thing is ready to move. What about energy? I mean, it's obviously the story of the morning. XLE is the cleanest sector trend of 2026. Pullbacks to the 20-day moving average are buying opportunities, not mornings. Right, right. And the discipline rule here? Don't chase extended names. Chasing momentum stocks is like jumping on a moving train. Exciting in the movies. Dangerous in real life. Wait for the pullback to the 9-day or 20-day. Let the train slow down at the station. Okay, so all right, let's bring it all together. Big picture. What's the one thing every trader needs locked in before the bell? The macro backdrop is genuinely constructive. Strong data, resilient economy, energy leadership. But. So basically, but only 25% of stocks above their 20-day average means this is a buy the right things market, not a buy everything market. Mm-hmm. And today's binary event? The S&P's 50-day moving average at 6,894. Pass or fail. That level tells us everything. Right. Energy at the 97th percentile. Look, fighting that trend means fighting the tape. It's like standing in front of a freight train with a stop sign. So the mental framework is selective optimism. Exactly. Exactly. Be encouraged by the macro. Be disciplined about entries and have zero FOMO. It's like navigating a buffet when you're watching your diet. Exactly. That's your morning dose, fresh highs, thin bread, and a 50-day moving average that's about to tell us everything. Stay selective, stay disciplined, and we'll see you back here tomorrow morning. Let's go make some good traits. That's all for today's episode of The Morning Dose. Everything you need to know before the market opens. See you next time.