Morning Dose: Market Mood Hesitant Futures & Geopolitical Risks – Friday 2/20/2026

Welcome to the Morning Dose. Everything you need to know before the market opens. It is Friday, February 20th, 2026. I'm your host, and I am ready to break down this pre-market action. And I am ready to roll. It is a big day to day, so grab your coffee. We have a lot to cover. We certainly do. Let's look at the board. Teachers are pointing to a slightly lower open this morning. It feels a bit hesitant out there. What is the mood? hesitant is the perfect word. We are seeing S&P 500 futures down about 15 points and the Nasdaq off by around 60. The market is basically holding its breath. Holding its breath for what exactly? Is it the GDP print? That is part of it. We have the advanced Q4 GDP reading dropping at 830 AM Eastern with a consensus of 3.0 percent. But the real heavy weight here is the PCE price index. Yes, the Fed's favorite inflation gauge. Exactly. The consensus is looking for a 0.3 percent increase. With Fed commentary tilting hawkish lately due to inflation worries, this number needs to behave. If it comes in hot, those futures could slide further. Right. And it's not just economic data making traders nervous today. The geopolitical headline risk is flashing red. It really is tensions are high. There are reports that President Trump is weighing an initial strike on Iran to force compliance with nuclear demands. That uncertainty is pushing oil prices higher. Crude is trading around $66. But that geopolitical risk premium is definitely creeping in. Yeah, markets hate uncertainty, especially involving military action. Let's pivot to corporate news because we have some massive headlines. Amazon is making waves for two very different reasons. Talk about a good news bad news situation. On one hand, Amazon has officially passed Walmart to become the largest US company by revenue. That is a historic milestone. Huge. But tell me about the AI issue. Yeah, a bit of irony here. Their cloud units suffered two outages caused by errors involving their own artificial intelligence tools. It's a reminder that even the tech giants have growing pains with this new tech. Speaking of AI and tech giants, Nvidia is back in a spotlight. Always. Nvidia is reportedly close to completing a $30 billion investment in open AI. This replaces a previous pledge. It just shows they are doubling down on the infrastructure layer of AI. 30 billion. Just incredible numbers. Let's look at some individual movers this morning. I'm seeing some wild action in the pre-market. Oh, it is volatile. Look at open-door technologies ticker OPN. They missed earnings per share estimates significantly, yet the stock is gapping up over 18%. Wait, they missed by over a dollar right? Why the jump? They beat on revenue and honestly, it looks like a classic bad news was priced in scenario, or perhaps the market likes the forward guidance. It's a risky trade, though. On the flip side, look at Grail. Ticker GRAL. They are getting crushed down over 50%. Ouch. That is painful. Any bright spots in the miners with gold up? Yeah, gold is up over $40, sitting above 5,000 denounce. Newmont Corporation ticker NEM beat both EPS and revenue expectations. However, despite the beat and gold prices, the stock is actually trading down about 3% in the pre-market. It's a tricky setup. Very tricky. Okay, let's get technical. What are the charts telling us for the S&P and the queues? The wave rider analysis is showing pure consolidation. For the SPY, we are stuck in a range between 684 and 685. The key support level to watch is 680. If we break below that, we could see some selling pressure. And to the upside? Resistance is sitting at 690. We need a catalyst to break that. For the QQQ, it's a similar story. Support is at 600. Resistance at 610. The volume is steady, but not explosive. It tells me the big money is waiting for that 830 AM data drop. So what is the play for traders at the open? Patience. Do not chase the first candle. Watch the reaction to the PCE data. If the numbers are cool, we might test that 690 resistance on the SPY. If the data is hot, or if we get more aggressive headlines on Iran, watch that 680 support level like a hawk. Got it. Keep the powder dry until we see a direction. Any final thoughts before we wrap up? Just keep an eye on the Supreme Court too. They might rule on the legality of those tariffs today. That is a sleeper headline that could move the market midday. Excellent point. All right, that is a wrap for today's briefing. Stay sharp, watch your levels and manage your risk. Good luck out there. Thanks for listening to The Morning Dose. We will catch you on Monday.