Morning Dose #217: Market Alert Trade War Turmoil Spurs Futures Sell-Off – Monday 2/23/2026

Welcome to the morning dose. Everything you need to know before the market opens. It is Monday, February 23rd, 2026. And wow, we are waking up to a sea of red on the screens this morning. Futures are sinking and it looks like volatility is back on the menu. Oh, absolutely. The weekend was anything but quiet. We are seeing a classic risk off-move right out of the gate. The S&P futures are down. NASDAQ is taking a hit and the Dow is off by triple digits. It is going to be a choppy open. Let's cut right to the chase. What is driving this sell-off? It feels like policy is front and center again. It is entirely policy-driven. President Trump just raised global tariffs to 15% up from 10%. This is a direct response to the Supreme Court ruling against his previous IEEPA tariffs. He is putting this 15% rate in place for 150 days. The market hates uncertainty and this is a massive curveball for global trade. 15% across the board. That is going to rattle supply chains. And I'm seeing reaction from Europe already. Right. The EU is reportedly proposing to freeze the ratification of their trade deal with the US until they get clarity. So you have trade war fears reigniting and on top of that geopolitical tension is simmering. We have nuclear talks with Iran set for Thursday and there are rumors swirling about potential strikes, though advisors are urging caution. It is a heavy macro backdrop. Okay. So the macro picture is tense. But let's pivot to the corporate side. Because despite the red tape, we have some massive movers this morning. M and A activity is alive and well. Live and kicking. The big story is Gilead Sciences. They are acquiring Arkelex for $115 a sharing cash. That is a huge premium. Arzilex is gapping up nearly 80% in the pre-market. If you are holding that over the weekend, congratulations. 80% that is incredible. But on the flip side, we have some drama in the weight loss drug space, right? It looks like a tale of two cities there. Exactly. Novo Nordisk is getting hammered down about 14%. Their new weight loss drug posted disappointing results. It missed on non-inferiority compared to competitors. And guess who benefits? Eli Lilly. Lilly shares are trading higher because their competitive moat just got a little wider. It is a perfect pair trade scenario playing out in real time. Fascinating how fast that capital rotates. Now we can't ignore the elephant in the room for this week. We have Nvidia earnings coming up on Wednesday. Is that keeping a lid on tech today? It is the main event. Nvidia is down slightly in the pre-market just moving with a broader tape. There is news that they are introducing new laptop chips this year, which is bullish, but everyone is holding their breath for the earnings report Wednesday. Until then, tech might feel a bit heavy, especially with the Nasdaq futures down over 140 points. And just quickly, any other earnings moving the needle this morning? Domino's pizza is an interesting one. They missed on earnings per share, but beat on revenue and raised their dividend. The stock is actually gapping up about 6%. In a market like this, investors love a dividend hike. It's for sure. Okay, let's talk strategy. We have the data. We have the news. How are we trading this open? What are the technicals telling us? We are in a cautious consolidation phase. The technicals on the SPY show. We are testing support. You need to watch the 682 level on the SPY closely. If we break that with volume, we could see more downside. On the QQQ, the line in the sand is 600. We are seeing a defensive rotation, money moving into healthcare, like we saw with the Gilead news and out of more cyclical areas. And I'm seeing the Vxx. The volatility index is creeping up. Yes, Vxx is ticking higher. That is the fear gauge. It tells me traders are buying protection. If that SPY continues, do not try to be a hero and catch a falling knife at the open. Let the first 30 minutes play out. Watch for a test of those support levels I mentioned. If they hold, we might get a bounce, but the trend this morning is definitely lower. So, patience is the play. Don't chase the gap down. Precisely. And keep an eye on the defensive sectors. If the market keeps bleeding, utilities and healthcare might be the only safe havens today. Also, keep an eye on factory orders at 10 a.m. Though honestly, the tariff news is going to overshadow almost any economic data today. All right, great context. It sounds like a day to keep position sizes small and stops tight. Any final thought for the listeners before the bell rings. Stay nimble. We are dealing with headline risk from the White House and earnings anxiety within video. Cash is a position too. Don't feel forced to trade if the setup isn't there. Wise words. That is a wrap for today. Thank you for listening to The Morning Dose. Good luck out there. Stay disciplined. And we will catch you tomorrow.