Morning Dose: Fed Meeting Insight Hike or Hold?
A quick analysis of today’s market outlook and key trading opportunities to start your day.
Intro & Market Mood
Speaker 1: “Welcome to The Morning Dose – Everything You Need to Know Before the Market Opens! It is Wednesday, June 18th, 2025, and folks, we’ve got a busy day ahead.”
Speaker 2: “That’s right! There’s a definite sense of guarded optimism out there. Futures on the S&P 500 are pointing about 13 points above fair value, so a modestly higher start is on the cards.”
Overnight Headlines
Speaker 1: “The night passed without a major escalation in the Middle East, particularly concerning Israel and Iran. However, the situation remains fluid with crucial diplomatic talks in the next 24 to 48 hours.”
Speaker 2: “Asia and Europe showed mixed performance with Japan’s Nikkei up nearly 1%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down over 1%, and Europe trading in the red with Germany’s DAX and the UK’s FTSE slipping.”
Economic Announcements
Speaker 1: “Key economic data releasing at 8:30 AM Eastern includes May Housing Starts, Building Permits, and Initial Jobless Claims, with a focus on Continuing Claims following a recent uptick.”
Speaker 2: “The Riksbank cut its policy rate, ECB highlighted risks, and the Bank of England prepares for its upcoming decision, though no rate cut is expected.”
Earnings Highlights
Speaker 1: “In the steel sector, Nucor (NUE) issued above-consensus Q2 guidance, contrasting Steel Dynamics (STLD) with lower than expected EPS projection. Other movers include GMS (GMS) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) showing positive performance.”
Top Movers
Speaker 2: “Stocks like Allstate (ALL) reported significant May catastrophe losses, while IPOs like Caris Life Sciences (CAI) and Slide Insurance Holdings (SLDE) priced at high ends of their ranges.”
Quick Trade Ideas
Speaker 1: “Swing traders advised caution amidst geopolitical uncertainty and a bearish volume skew. Focus on defensive plays or sectors like energy.”
Speaker 2: “Watch Zscaler (ZS) for a continuation play and consider Netflix (NFLX) for potential anticipation, but be cautious ahead of the Fed announcement.”
Key Takeaway
Speaker 1: “The market is at a critical juncture, testing resistance levels with potential for a rally or increased selling pressure depending on upcoming catalysts. Manage risk and stay alert.”
Speaker 2: “Traders, keep an eye on economic releases, ongoing geopolitical factors, and the Fed announcement at 2 PM Eastern for potential volatility spikes. Stay nimble!”