Morning Dose #277: The Anti-War Trade & The Dell Explosion – Friday 5/29/2026

Today’s Market Narrative

Equity futures are pointing to a higher open this morning, extending a winning streak that saw the S&P 500 and DJIA notch record closing highs yesterday. The market is digesting a significant shift in the geopolitical landscape; reports indicate the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a memorandum of understanding, a development that has triggered an intraday reversal in oil prices. Crude oil has slipped below the $88 per barrel mark, removing a key inflationary headwind and creating a constructive backdrop for equities. This “anti-war trade” dynamic is favoring risk assets, with tech stocks poised to lead the charge following a wave of exceptional earnings reports.

The narrative is heavily anchored by the technology sector’s performance. Dell (DELL) is the standout story, surging in premarket trading after a blowout earnings report that saw the stock jump over 33%. This move is not isolated; it is part of a broader rotation into software and hardware names that have delivered strong beats and raised guidance. The market is interpreting these results as validation of the AI investment thesis and resilience in enterprise spending. While Costco (COST) missed EPS expectations, the broader sentiment remains overwhelmingly positive, driven by the sheer magnitude of the gains in names like Dell and the continued strength in the semiconductor space.

Despite the record highs, traders should remain cognizant of the macro environment. While the geopolitical front is calming, the Federal Reserve remains a key watchpoint. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is scheduled to speak today, emphasizing the need for officials to signal a commitment to bringing down inflation. The market is currently pricing in a “soft landing” scenario where earnings growth outpaces inflation, but any hawkish commentary from Fed speakers could introduce volatility. For now, the momentum is clearly to the upside, with futures indicating a continuation of the record-breaking run.

Macro & Policy

The macro backdrop has shifted decisively in favor of risk assets overnight. The primary driver is the de-escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has caused crude oil to retreat from recent highs. With oil trading below $88, the immediate threat of a supply shock has diminished, alleviating concerns about sticky inflation driven by energy costs. This is a critical development for the “anti-war trade” narrative, which favors value stocks, long-duration bonds, and small caps. The Treasury market is reflecting this shift, with yields moving lower as the risk premium compresses.

In the bond market, the 10-year note yield is down two basis points to 4.44%, marking a fourth consecutive day of gains in all tenors. The 2-year note yield has also softened to 4.01%. This decline in yields is supportive of equity valuations, particularly for growth stocks. However, the Fed remains vigilant. Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid is set to speak today, and his comments on inflation will be closely watched. The consensus expectation is that he will reiterate the need for a firm stance on inflation, but the market’s focus is currently on the geopolitical relief and strong corporate earnings.

Geopolitically, the situation remains fluid. While Vice President JD Vance stated that the two sides are “very close” to a deal, Iran has noted that the memorandum is not yet finalized. This nuance suggests that while the immediate panic has subsided, the situation requires monitoring. Additionally, Japan’s Finance Minister has warned of potential currency intervention as the yen hovers near 160 against the dollar, adding a layer of FX volatility to the global picture. Despite these factors, the dominant theme remains the constructive shift in risk sentiment driven by the potential peace deal and robust earnings.

Economic Calendar Today

Today’s data calendar is relatively light, allowing the market to focus on earnings and geopolitical developments. The key releases include:

• 08:30 ET: Advanced International Trade in Goods for April — Expected: NA | Prior: -$87.9B — This data point will provide insight into the trade balance and potential impacts on GDP.
• 08:30 ET: Advanced Retail Inventories for April — Expected: NA | Prior: 0.7% — Inventory levels are critical for assessing supply chain health and future production orders.
• 08:30 ET: Advanced Wholesale Inventories for April — Expected: NA | Prior: 1.4% — Similar to retail inventories, this helps gauge business spending and demand.
• 09:45 ET: Chicago PMI for May — Expected: 49.5 | Prior: 49.2 — A key regional indicator of manufacturing health; a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Earnings reporting today are limited to the pre-market and after-hours sessions, with the bulk of the action already priced in from yesterday’s close. There are no major Fed speakers scheduled for the immediate morning session, though Jeffrey Schmid’s comments later in the day will be a focal point. The lack of significant economic data means that volatility will likely be driven by the earnings fallout and the evolving geopolitical narrative.

Earnings & Corporate News

The earnings season has delivered a massive catalyst for the market, headlined by Dell (DELL). Dell reported Q1 EPS of $424.33, beating expectations by $1.90, and revenue also exceeded consensus. More importantly, the company guided Q2 and FY27 EPS and revenues above consensus, sending shares up over 33% in premarket trading. This is a textbook example of a “beat and raise” scenario that drives sector momentum. Following Dell’s lead, several other tech names are gapping up, including NetApp (NTAP) at +17.7% and PagerDuty (PD) at +12.1%, both of which beat on earnings and raised guidance.

However, not all reports were positive. Costco (COST) missed EPS expectations by $0.05, though it slightly beat on revenue. The stock is down 0.8% in premarket trading, suggesting that the market is punishing any miss in the high-growth retail space. SentinelOne (S) is another notable underperformer, down 17.1% after missing on sales and providing weak guidance, despite an analyst upgrade to Buy. Elastic (ESTC) is also gapping down 7.4% after guiding Q1 EPS below consensus. These divergences highlight the importance of selective trading; while the sector is rallying, individual stock performance is highly dependent on guidance quality.

In M&A news, Autodesk (ADSK) announced the acquisition of MaintainX in an all-cash transaction valued at $3.6 billion, aiming to advance its unified platform. This deal underscores the ongoing consolidation in the software space. Additionally, SpaceX (SPCX) is targeting an IPO valuation of $1.8 trillion, a massive figure that could reshape the aerospace and defense landscape if realized. Analyst upgrades are also supporting the rally, with Snowflake (SNOW) upgraded to Buy at HSBC with a $289 target, and SentinelOne (S) upgraded to Buy at BofA Securities despite the recent sell-off.

WaveFinder Signal Summary

The WaveFinder scan environment is rich with opportunities, particularly in the continuation space. There are 44 continuation signals identified today, indicating a broad-based momentum environment where trends are likely to persist. The top signals include AVAV (Aerospace/Defense) with an 18.3% gain and HOLO (Chips) with a 14.1% gain, both showing high relative volume and strong momentum. The breadth data shows that 89% of stocks are trading above their 20-day SMA, a significant increase from yesterday’s 175% (note: the 175% figure appears to be an anomaly in the source data, likely a calculation error, but the 89% figure indicates strong breadth).

The 40-day SMA coverage has contracted slightly to 54.9% from 59.31% yesterday, suggesting a slight consolidation in the broader market breadth, but the overall trend remains positive. The 4% Bull/Bear gauge is currently neutral, but the sheer number of continuation signals suggests that the bulls are in control. Traders should focus on the high-conviction setups in the continuation scan, particularly those with high relative volume and strong sector alignment. The lack of delayed 9-month signals suggests that the market is in a short-to-medium term momentum phase rather than a long-term reversal.

Today’s Watchlist

• DELL — Blowout earnings beat with massive guidance raise; +33% premarket gap, key test of resistance at $424.
• AVAV — Aerospace/Defense leader with 18.3% gain; 2LYNCH setup driven by geopolitical de-escalation and sector rotation.
• S — High-risk play; gapped down 17% on weak guidance despite analyst upgrade; watch for reversal or continuation of sell-off.
• NTAP — Strong earnings beat with 17.7% premarket gap; follows Dell’s lead in the data storage/AI infrastructure theme.
• HOLO — High relative volume (3.1x) chip stock with 14.1% gain; 2LYNCH continuation signal in the semiconductor sector.
• COST — Missed EPS but beat revenue; watch for support at $987 level as the market digests the mixed report.

Action Codes of the Day

• 2LYNCH — With 44 continuation signals and a broad-based rally in tech and defense, the market is exhibiting strong trend-following characteristics. The high relative volume in names like AVAV and HOLO confirms this breakout environment.
• BTFD — Despite the record highs, the geopolitical de-escalation provides a “buy the dip” opportunity in case of early morning volatility. The drop in oil prices and the constructive earnings backdrop support aggressive entries on pullbacks.