Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness: Bullish. Indices are poised to open slightly higher after yesterday’s rally pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite to fresh record highs, while the DJIA briefly reclaimed the 50,000 mark. Earnings growth continues to provide support, alongside optimism related to a potential US-Iran peace deal leading to lower oil prices. Trade mode: aggressive breakout. Today’s focus shifts to assessing economic data releases including Q1 Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and weekly jobless claims. Regime context — 69.14% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend lacks recent datapoints so analysis is unavailable.
SIP: FLNC RXT FA RUN
- What’s working: D9M is firing with 185 signal counts.
- Leading sectors: Technology (4.41); Financials (2.76); Industrials (1.52).; leading themes: (Market closed — no live data)
- Key event: Assessing the impact of preliminary Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs data on inflationary pressures and future Fed policy.
- Market read: Yesterday’s strong rally was fueled by largely positive earnings reports, AI-related announcements, and declining oil prices. The market appears to be climbing the “wall of unworry,” brushing aside geopolitical concerns over Iran. How well does yesterday’s momentum hold?
- DEP watchlist: ABEV AESI APLD BLDP DGXX
- SIPS: ALGM CRWV DNA GOOG
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures are pointing to a modestly higher open. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached fresh record highs in the prior session, fueled by strong earnings, particularly in the semiconductor space with AMD‘s standout performance. AI-related announcements and partnerships, such as Corning’s partnership with NVIDIA, added to the bullish sentiment. Energy prices sharply declined on reports of potential peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.
Overnight, Asian-Pacific indices displayed strength. Japan’s Nikkei rose 5.7% after the holiday week. European indices are trading with modest losses. The market now awaits the release of economic data including the preliminary Q1 Productivity, Unit Labor Costs, and weekly jobless claims. How these releases affect investor sentiment, particularly concerning inflation and economic growth, will be central to today’s price action.
Earnings continue to be a major driver, with companies like DoorDash and Uber delivering notable results. DoorDash beat EPS expectations by $0.06, even though they missed on revenues, while Uber reported strong Q1 financials, exceeding expectations on gross bookings and adjusted EBITDA. The market’s reaction to these earnings reports alongside the ongoing macroeconomic developments will shape today’s trading landscape.
Macro & Policy
Treasuries are showing a continuation of their bounce from the last two days, with the belly potentially showing relative strength. Overnight releases included a strong March Factory Orders report from Germany (5.0%). Norges Bank unexpectedly increased its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% due to inflation pressures.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.1% at 97.91. The 10-yr note yield sits at 4.33%. Top Japanese officials, including Prime Minister Takaichi, are expected to speak with Treasury Secretary Bessent next week. Indonesia is setting up a plan to stabilize its bond market.
Economic Calendar Today
- 8:30 ET: Preliminary Q1 Productivity — Expected: 1.8% | Prior: 1.6% — A weaker reading might raise concerns about economic slowing and potential rate cuts, while a stronger reading could support the current market trajectory. The actual reading was 0.8%.
- 8:30 ET: Preliminary Q1 Unit Labor Costs — Expected: 2.7% | Prior: 4.6% — Lower unit labor costs could ease inflationary pressures. The actual reading was 2.3%.
- 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Jobless Claims — Expected: 205,000 | Prior: 190,000 (revised from 189,000) — An increase in claims might suggest weakening labor conditions, potentially influencing future Fed decisions. The actual reading was 200,000.
- Afternoon: March Construction Spending — Briefing.com consensus 0.2%
- Afternoon: March Consumer Credit — Briefing.com consensus $12.5 billion
Earnings & Corporate News
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged 18.64% yesterday. Corning (GLW) increased 11.99% after announcing a long-term partnership with NVIDIA to strengthen U.S. manufacturing for AI infrastructure. Uber (UBER) gained 8.41% after a stellar earnings report, with gross bookings and adjusted EBITDA coming in above the high end of guidance.
CVS Health (CVS) reported an encouraging Q1 report with progress in its Aetna recovery plan, raising its FY26 guidance and is trading higher. DoorDash (DASH) beat EPS expectations but missed on revenues, but the stock direction is not specified in the provided data. Whirlpool (not mentioned in the primary intelligence so not included). Arm Holdings (ARM) beat EPS expectations by $0.02, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q1 EPS in-line, with revenues above consensus – the market’s reaction is not made explicit.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
Continuation signals are moderate (116) but the broader strength of D9M signals (185) underscores the established bullish trend is still unfolding. Notable setups worth watching include DGXX and FLEX, both triggering heavily on the delayed 9M setup, A high percentage of stocks above their 20 and 40 SMAs, reflecting overall positive market breadth, though the figure has decreased from yesterday. The % above 40 SMA has decreased from 70.45% to 69.14%, while the % above 20 SMA has decreased from 186% to 81%.
Today’s Watchlist
- ALGM — Shows 2LYNCH continuation setup, strong relative volume, and rising ATR.
- CRWV — Displays 2LYNCH continuation break, in Internet sector, good relative ATR%.
- DGXX — Showing delayed 9M setup, high volatility, potential for breakout.
- FLEX — Delayed 9M setup, potentially benefiting from the AI-driven electronics demand.
- UBER — Benefiting from a stellar earnings report; continued positive sentiment expected.
- RUN — Better-than-expected Q1 results; could see continued upside in the energy sector.
Action Codes of the Day
2LYNCH Strong earnings reactions for AMD and UBER.
FFM There are many FFM opportunities, the risk on signal is to high.