Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness: Bullish. Broad-based rally fueled by easing oil prices, tech strength, and potential geopolitical de-escalation. Indices are poised to test new highs. Trade mode: Aggressive breakout. Positive earnings surprises and forward guidance, along with optimism surrounding potential US-Iran negotiations, are driving risk-on sentiment. Regime context — 66.55% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend data unavailable.
SIP: AMD NVDA DIS GLW
- What’s working: continuation breakouts on strong earnings
- Leading sectors: Technology (3.74), Financials (2.27), Energy (2.02); leading themes: data unavailable.
- Key event: US-Iran negotiation progress
- Market read: Yesterday’s rebound confirmed buy-the-dip activity, setting the stage for further gains today
- DEP watchlist: BITX DRAM IREN
- SIPS: AAPL GNRC LXFR
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures point to a higher open this morning, extending yesterday’s gains. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are poised to hit fresh record highs, spurred by easing oil prices and a continued rally in the technology sector. This rally is driven partially by optimism about potential US-Iran negotiations. Overnight, Asian markets showed strength, with South Korea’s Kospi jumping 6.5%. European markets are also trading higher, responding to the same catalysts. The tech sector demonstrated considerable gains with AMD (422.11, +66.85, +18.8%) sharply higher after a blowout earnings report.
The catalyst driving the market is a report from Axios that the White House believes the U.S. and Iran are close to a deal to end ongoing tensions; crude oil is trading lower at $91.59 per barrel, down $10.68 (-1.04%). This news, coupled with generally positive earnings surprises, is contributing to the risk-on environment. Yesterday’s tape showed a solid rebound suggesting that buy-the-dip interest remains strong.
Several leading tech names are poised for large gains at the open, fueling positive investor sentiment. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 422.11, +66.85, +18.8%) is sharply higher in premarket trading after a blowout earnings report. NVIDIA (NVDA 201.68, +5.18, +2.6%), Alphabet (GOOG 389.40, +5.09, +1.3%), and Corning (GLW 190.47, +28.37, +17.5%) are adding to the AI enthusiasm with individual corporate headlines. However, Palantir despite an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report finished lower.
Macro & Policy
Treasuries are on track for a higher start, potentially lifting the complex into positive territory for the week. This trajectory aligns with weakness in crude oil, sliding to under $100/bbl following reports of progress in US-Iran negotiations, which has spurred risk sentiment. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.7% at 97.80, its lowest level since late February. The 10-yr note yield is at 4.35%, down 7 bps.
Overnight, the bond market noted contractionary Services PMI readings from major economies, contrasting with an acceleration in growth from China’s private sector reading (RatingDog Services PMI at 52.6 vs last 52.1). China has requested that the U.S. drop the Section 301 investigation into China’s excess capacity ahead of President Trump’s scheduled meeting with President Xi. Bank of England Governor Bailey cautioned investors to be mindful of risks associated with private credit.
Economic Calendar Today
- 08:25 ET: April ADP Employment Change Report — Actual: 109K | Prior: 61K (revised from 62K) — Higher-than-expected job growth suggests economic resilience, potentially tempering expectations for near-term rate cuts.
- Today’s data slate is notably thin.
Earnings & Corporate News
Walt Disney (DIS 104.76, +4.28, +4.2%) beat EPS expectations by $0.08, beat revenue expectations, and guided FY26 EPS above consensus. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 422.11, +66.85, +18.8%) beat EPS expectations by $0.08, beat revenue expectations, and guided Q2 revenues above consensus. Corning (GLW 190.47, +28.37, +17.5%) announced a long-term partnership with NVIDIA to strengthen U.S. manufacturing for AI infrastructure.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is trading lower despite another beat-and-raise quarter with notable strength in its U.S. business. Pinterest (PINS) is soaring higher following a strong Q1 earnings report that featured both a top- and bottom-line beat alongside upbeat Q2 guidance. Memory names like Micron (MU 640.45, +64.00, +11.10%), Sandisk (SNDK 1406.32, +150.46, +11.98%), and Western Digital (WDC 465.26, +22.90, +5.18%) all extended their post-earnings strength by notching fresh record highs yesterday.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
Scans are showing robust continuation setups with 143 signals, indicating strong breadth. The tech sector continues to lead the market, driven by AI enthusiasm and earnings beats. The DEP watchlist featuring BITX, DRAM, and IREN, signals potentially delayed moves, while names like AAPL and GNRC display attractive continuation patterns for today.
Today’s Watchlist
- AAPL — Continuation Breakout, telecom sector, approaching new highs after yesterday’s 2.7% rise, showing relative strength.
- AMD — Blowout earnings/guidance, huge premarket move.
- GNRC — Continuation Breakout, Generac, recent uptrend, 2.6% gain yesterday, looking good for further upside.
- GLW — Partnership with NVIDIA signals strong growth potential particularly with the 17.5% premarket pop.
- BITX — Delayed 9M, volatile Bitcoin proxy, potential for breakout.
- DIS — Better-than-expected results, signals possible trend reversal.
Action Codes of the Day
- 2LYNCH – AAPL shows 2LYNCH setup after rising 2.7% yesterday.
- MAGNA53 – Not enough signals found to show Magna53 today.