Situation Awareness: Bullish. A strong surge in semiconductor stocks, led by Intel’s impressive earnings, is buoying the Nasdaq and broader market sentiment. Trade mode: Aggressive breakout. The focus is on AI-driven demand and potential Iran de-escalation hopes, countered by concerns about consumer sentiment. Regime context — 69.86% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows data unavailable.
SIP: INTC ARM QCOM
- What’s working: 2LYNCH and Delayed 9M strategies are showing strength, driven by tech and energy sectors.
- Leading sectors: Technology (2.64), Financials(1.96), Industrials (1.65)
- Key event: Intel’s (INTC) earnings beat and upside guidance spurred a tech rally.
- Market read: Yesterday’s market saw mixed earnings reactions and geopolitical jitters, but today futures are boosted by Intel and hopes for U.S.-Iran talks, signaling a renewed risk-on sentiment.
- DEP watchlist: ARM, ALAB, PTEN
- SIPS: ALAN, CAT, CMI
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures are trading higher this morning, primarily driven by Intel’s (INTC) outstanding earnings report after yesterday’s close. INTC is projected to open up a staggering 28%, dragging the semiconductor sector along with it. Al Arabiya reporting potential resumption of talks between the U.S. and Iran is also adding to the optimistic mood, with WTI crude futures falling from nearly $98.00/bbl to $94.66/bbl on the news. This drop in oil prices is further encouraging the market.
Yesterday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite saw mixed reactions to earnings reports. Texas Instruments (TXN) fueled semiconductor gains, while ServiceNow (NOW) faced a sell-off post-earnings, pulling down software stocks. The market experienced a brief downturn due to debunked reports of Iranian speaker resignations and engagements with hostile targets; the indices managed to recover most losses by the end of the day. The overall market action emphasizes select volatility based on company fundamentals and geopolitical headlines.
Asian markets ended the week mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei (+1.0%) reaching a fresh record high. European indices were mostly lower, with Germany’s DAX (+0.4%) outperforming due to SAP’s post-earnings performance. News from China regarding an expected increase in its grain harvest forecast for 2026 is being considered.
Macro & Policy
U.S. Treasuries are poised for a modestly higher start, with the 10-yr note yield easing back to 4.31% after rising to 4.33%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.2% at 98.58. Overnight action was influenced by weak sentiment surveys from Germany and slower core retail sales growth in the U.K., raising concerns about potential stagflation. Bank of England policymaker Breeden had warned that equity markets are too high and set to fall.
The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50%, marking the first hike in two years. Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary indicated there’s no immediate need for a supplementary budget. The market is still monitoring Iran-related headlines while awaiting potential weekend negotiator meetings, influencing trading sentiment overall.
Economic Calendar Today
- 10:00 a.m. ET: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Final April) — Expected: 47.6 | Prior: 47.6 — A weak reading could dampen the bullish outlook, indicating potential consumer weakness and slower economic growth.
Earnings & Corporate News
Intel (INTC) is the standout performer after its earnings call, projecting a 27.5% jump to $85.15 after beating EPS estimates by $0.27 and revenue expectations as well as guiding Q2 EPS and revenue above consensus. Hartford Financial (HIG) missed EPS by $0.30, contributing to a 4.7% drop to $133.00 and is missing on Revenues. NIKE (NKE) plans to eliminate 1400 jobs. Procter & Gamble (PG) beat earnings by $0.03.
Lam Research (LRCX) saw customer spending projections moving higher across all device segments due to another upside guide, which strengthens the outlook for CY27. Also Oracle (ORCL) $300 billion deal with OpenAI is facing funding challenges.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
The WaveFinder scans are fairly rich, with 79 continuation signals indicating good breadth. Top setups include ALAB, CAT, and CMI from the continuation scan. ARM, ALAB, and PTEN show strong potential from the delayed 9M scanner. From yesterday to today, the percentage of stocks above the 40 SMA edged up slightly from 69.61% to 69.86%. However, stocks trading above their 20-day SMA decreased significantly from 44% to 21%.
Today’s Watchlist
- INTC — Intel’s earnings beat and upside guidance.
- ARM — Shares rising on Intel news.
- QCOM — Qualcomm rises with Intel results.
- CAT — 2LYNCH signal points to continued strength.
- ALAB — 2LYNCH and D9M signal suggests sustained momentum in the semiconductor space.
- PTEN — Delayed 9M with high risk indicates potential for explosive moves in energy
Action Codes of the Day
- 2LYNCH Continuation Breakout — with 79 signals present, several setups look ripe for breakouts as momentum builds in key sectors.
- MAGNA53 Episodic Pivot — With the equity futures being higher, this shows opportunities with gap ups and volume at the open.