Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness: Cautious. This tape is driven by geopolitical cross-currents of ceasefire optimism vs. Strait of Hormuz tension, earnings catalysts especially guidance, and sector volatility as tech continues to attract flows. Trade mode: Selective and watchful. President Trump’s extension of the ceasefire, balanced against Iran unrest, fuels “TACO trade” rotation into cyclicals alongside tech earnings reports. Regime context — 71.06% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows increased volatility, a series of back-and-forth signals indicative of choppy trading conditions.
SIP: BBY AGPU
- What’s working: Continuation and D9M delayed breakouts showing momentum names.
- Leading sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services.
- Key event: President Trump’s extension of the Iran ceasefire continues to be a primary market narrative, yet the long-term solution remains unclear.
- Market read: Yesterday, a spike in oil prices due to uncertainty in U.S.-Iran talks caused a market retreat, ending the session lower. Today, the market is attempting to stabilize following Trump’s ceasefire extension.
- DEP watchlist: NVTS, POET, HPE
- SIPS: AIOT, ALAB, AMD
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures point to a higher opening on Wednesday, April 22, 2026, fueled by President Trump’s decision to extend the ceasefire with Iran, providing some much-needed relief after yesterday’s geopolitical jitters. The market is once again embracing the “TACO trade,” rotating into cyclical sectors, while also keying off of encouraging earnings reports, falling Treasury yields, and Adobe’s new $25 billion share buyback program. Oil prices are firming, with WTI up 1.0% to $90.59/bbl, as traders weigh the potential for a deal, but also remain vigilant about the Strait of Hormuz as a chokepoint.
Overnight, Asian markets were mixed, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining 0.4% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng losing 1.2%. European indices are trading near flat as of this writing, remaining cautious about the U.S.-Iran situation despite the ceasefire extension. The overnight bond market saw hotter-than-expected March CPI from the U.K. and South Korea’s producer prices increased at their fastest pace in three years due to the recent surge in energy prices.
Earnings are also playing a significant role, with positive results from Boeing lifting sentiment, and Adobe’s massive buyback adding to the bullish case. Conversely, AT&T and Capital One missed earnings expectations, highlighting the mixed nature of the reporting season. Investors are likely to remain focused on individual company results and guidance, as well as the evolving geopolitical landscape.
Macro & Policy
The market’s recent rally, driven by receding fears of a wider conflict with Iran and fueled by AI enthusiasm and mega-cap strength, has been significant. The reduction of key risks, such as oil prices trading above $100/bbl and a potential 10% correction in the S&P 500, contributed to a shift in market sentiment. The 10-yr note yield is currently at 4.27%, down two basis points, showing a degree of stability amid geopolitical uncertainties. The Treasury will hold a $13 billion 20-yr bond auction today at 1:00 p.m. ET.
The Bond Market Update highlights that expectations for a May rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand increased to about 50% after yesterday’s release of the second consecutive above-target CPI reading. The UK’s March CPI was also hotter than expected. The U.S. Dollar Index is flat at 98.38. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is quoted as saying “The United States Navy will continue the blockade of Iranian ports… Constraining Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the regime’s primary revenue lifelines.”
Economic Calendar Today
- 07:00 ET: MBA Mortgage Applications Index for Apr 18 — Prior 1.8% — Tracks mortgage demand signals overall economic activity.
- 13:00 ET: US Treasury holds $13 bln 20-yr bond auction. Results to be published after close of auction.
- Earnings reporting today (pre-market): T, BKU, BA, BSX, CME, ELV, FBP, GEV, MHO, MAS, MCO, EDU, NVR, ONB, OTIS, PM, TMHC, TEL, TDY, TNL, VRT, WAB
- Earnings reporting today (post-market): ASGN, AZZ, BANC, CACI, CATY, CCS, CHDN, CCI, CSX, EGP, EPRT, FAF, FRME, FR, FULT, GTY, GL, GSHD, GGG, HLX, HXL, IBM, KALU, KMI, KNX, LRCX, LVS, LBRT, MEDP, MTH, MOH, NP, OII, PKG, CASH, PTEN, PNFP, QS, RJF, RS, RLI, ROL, SEIC, SIGI, NOW, LUV, STC, TSLA, TXN, URI, WEX
Earnings & Corporate News
Boeing (BA) is up 3.5% after beating earnings estimates by $0.48 and exceeding revenue expectations. The company’s 737 program continues to produce at 42/month, signaling positive momentum. GEV Vernova (GEV) jumped 8.5% after reporting strong Q1 results and raising FY26 guidance. Adobe (ADBE) Is up +2.7% (253.92) after announcing a new $25 billion stock repurchase program. Conversely, AT&T (T) Is down -1.3% (25.55) after missing EPS by $0.01, although revenues were in-line. Best Buy (BBY) is trading lower by -4.3% (63.75) after announcing a CEO transition.
Analyst upgrades include Airbnb (ABNB) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Wells Fargo (tgt $178), and Biogen (BIIB) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS (tgt $225). Downgrades include Abbott (ABT) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Daiwa (tgt $92), and Driven Brands (DRVN) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair. POET Technologies (POET) shows shares higher by 19% pre-market; strength attributed to favorable management commentary regarding orders Marvell (MRVL), according to StockTwits.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
Today’s scans present a mixed picture, with 58 continuation signals. Several D9M signals are flashing including NVTS, POET, also MRVL and HPE. Technology is top sector in terms of volatility (ATR) currently at 100th percentile rank .
Market breadth is weaker, with 40% of stocks above their 20-day SMA compared to 72% yesterday, indicating a contracting market breadth, while the percentage above the 40SMA moved slightly higher (71.06% vs 70.68% prior day).
Today’s Watchlist
- ADBE — $25B buyback announcement, strong earnings, potential for continuation breakout.
- BA — Earnings beat, positive outlook, and building on momentum.
- VRT — Weak Q2 EPS guidance may present a short opportunity following recent high.
- POET — +19.3% signal, favorable management commentary regarding Marvell orders provides good continuation setup.
- ANET — Continuation breakout driven by rotation into tech and defensive growth names.
- BBY — CEO transition, potentially volatile reaction providing swing opportunity.
Action Codes of the Day
- CRT – Choppy geopolitical backdrop with conflicting data points on rate cuts demands calculated risks.
- BBT – Increased volume in key breakout names including ALAB and AMD suggest potential big moves.