Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness: Cautious. The market is in a guarded state, with positive momentum driven by hopes of renewed US-Iran negotiations and solid tech sector leadership. Trade mode: selective and defensive. Geopolitical tensions remain a factor, but optimism regarding a potential US-Iran ceasefire deal is driving market sentiment, while first quarter earnings reports are beginning to ramp up. Regime context — 60.56% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows mixed signals; the market traded higher in spite of geopolitical tensions.
SIP: AVNS SANA TVTX
- What’s working: New Product/Better Product news combined with FDA approval continues to dominate, driving price action for individual names.
- Leading sectors: Technology (1.63); Financials (0.92); Communication Services (0.17). Leading themes: Data Unavailable.
- Watch for PPI data this morning to provide direction concerning inflation metrics
- Yesterday: the S&P 500 erased all losses incurred since the start of the Iran war, propelled by a strong showing from the information technology sector (+1.3%) and mega-caps.
- DEP watchlist: ALAB, AVGO, CRWV
- SIPS: AEBI, AIA, AIR
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures are pointing towards a slightly higher open this morning, continuing yesterday’s rally where major averages steadily recovered from initial losses. The S&P 500 remarkably erased all losses incurred since the start of the Iran conflict, largely propelled by a surge in software stocks as buyers stepped in on the dip and strength in mega-cap names. The market is displaying optimism that a US-Iran deal will be reached, despite stalled weekend negotiations.
Asian markets closed higher, led by South Korea’s Kospi (+2.7%) and Japan’s Nikkei (+2.4%), following early March levels. European indices are also trading on a higher note; however, the U.K.’s FTSE (+0.1%) is lagging. China’s March trade surplus missed estimates significantly, while import growth beat expectations. The market is no longer expecting a rate hike from the Bank of Japan at the end of April.
Earnings season is beginning to ramp up, with several major banking names reporting this morning. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and JPMorgan Chase (JPM) both reported earnings beats. The market also awaits the March PPI and Core PPI readings later this morning. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index contracted to 95.8 in March.
Macro & Policy
The bond market indicates a steady start, with U.S. Treasuries expected to open slightly higher after a quiet overnight session. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.29%. Treasury Secretary Bessent noted that the Fed is correct to maintain its current policy. The IEA’s April Oil Market report projects a future supply decrease and a demand decrease in 2026. The market is no longer expecting the Bank of Japan to announce a rate hike on April 30.
Geopolitically, the market’s focus remains on the potential re-engagement of the U.S. and Iran in negotiations towards a longer-term ceasefire, with discussions around nuclear policy ongoing. China’s smaller-than-expected trade surplus, driven by stronger import growth, signals potential shifts in global trade dynamics.
Economic Calendar Today
- 08:30 ET: PPI for Mar — Expected: 1.2% | Prior: 0.7% — This inflation data will influence rate expectations.
- 08:30 ET: Core PPI for Mar — Expected: 0.4% | Prior: 0.5% — A key measure of underlying inflation pressures.
- Earnings reporting today (pre-market): ACI, BLK, KMX, JNJ, JPM, WFC — These reports will set the early tone for Q1 earnings season.
Earnings & Corporate News
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat EPS expectations by $0.02, beat revenue expectations, raised its FY26 guidance, and increased its quarterly dividend by 3.1%. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) beat EPS expectations by $0.49 and also beat revenue expectations. The market is reacting positively to overall earnings beats, with the Financials sector up 1.7% yesterday, though Goldman Sachs (GS) closed down (-1.87%).
Amazon (AMZN) is reportedly close to a deal to acquire Globalstar (GSAT), boosting GSAT shares +9.0%. Revolution Medicines (RVMD) soared after announcing “unprecedented” Phase 3 survival data in pancreatic cancer.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
The WaveFinder scan environment shows a mixed picture today, with moderately rich setup counts. The continuation scan shows 342 signals and the delayed 9M shows 163. Technology continues to show the most setups that merit close watch, with the potential for continuation moves and breakout potential.
Breadth is mixed. The percentage of stocks above their 40-day SMA increased slightly to 60.56% from 59.59% yesterday indicating a continuation of bullish sentiment. But the percentage of stocks trading above their 20-day SMA dipped to 71% compared to 92% yesterday.
Today’s Watchlist
- TVTX — FDA approval for FILSPARI driving momentum; look for continuation of breakout.
- GSAT — Amazon (AMZN) acquisition talks; momentum play on M&A news.
- ALAB — Delayed 9M name; potential for breakout above resistance.
- JNJ — Earnings beat, raised guidance; follow-through opportunity.
- AMZN — M&A catalyst with Globalstar as Amazon is close to acquiring the company.
- AEBI — Continuation scan; monitor for volatility break.
Action Codes of the Day
CRT — Controlled Risk Taking: 60.56% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, suggesting a mixed market environment requiring a measured approach.
BBT — Big Bang Theory: AVNS is up 67.6% on M&A news, aligning with the big volume before a big move idea. Look for the consolidation and continuation of the trend.