Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions combined with rising commodity prices and persistent inflation concerns are weighing on market sentiment, leaving investors cautious. Trade mode: selective and defensive. The geopolitical uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s deadline for Iran and the potential for military action are calling the shots today, overshadowing recent economic data. Regime context — 36.5% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 0 bulls vs. 0 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.
SIP: ORGO TLX XPOF MNR
- What’s working: Reversal strategies are showing the most signals, with 74 stocks identified. Continuation scans are also generating steady signals (36).
- Leading sectors: Energy (2.55); Utilities (1.75); Financials (-0.5). Market closed — no live data on themes.
- Key event: Potential military conflict between the U.S. and Iran looms if a deal is not reached by tonight’s deadline.
- Market read: Yesterday’s modest gains masked underlying caution regarding geopolitical risks and inflation worries, setting the stage for a potentially volatile session today.
- DEP watchlist: AA, BA, MRVL, APLS, BNO
- SIPS: DTI, ERIE, MPLT
Today’s Market Narrative
Equity futures are slipping this morning as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalate ahead of tonight’s 8:00 p.m. ET deadline for striking a deal. Negotiators are reportedly less confident that a deal can be reached before the deadline and the WSJ reported President Trump threatened to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not made. Bloomberg reports that the U.S. and Israel have already initiated another wave of strikes against Iran, with Axios reporting U.S. military strikes on Kharg Island. Crude oil is up $2.48 (+2.2%) to $114.89 per barrel.
The major averages notched modest gains yesterday as oil prices saw just a modest bump. Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%) and Energy (+0.8%) sectors led the upside, while Utilities (-0.4%), Health Care (-0.4%) and Materials (-0.4%) lagged. Memory storage names like STX and WDC saw sharp gains. President Trump reiterated his threat of strikes against Iranian power plants and bridges if a deal is not negotiated before Tuesday at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Overseas, Asia-Pacific markets ended higher, with the exception of Hong Kong which remained closed for Easter. European markets are trading mixed. The Eurozone’s March Services PMI came in at 50.2 (expected 50.1). April Sentix Investor Confidence was -19.2 (expected -7.5).
Macro & Policy
The fog of war surrounding the conflict with Iran continues to cloud the market’s outlook. Rising oil prices, due to shipping disruptions raise concerns about inflation. This has led to increasing Treasury yields, eliminating expectations for a rate cut in 2026. The main issue is that there is no clear indication that Iran wants to end the war. The market hopes that the Iran war can end soon and that oil, fertilizer, and other goods can start flowing freely again through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. Treasuries are on track for a modestly lower start after a sideways night in the futures market. Overnight action saw the return of many markets that had been closed for Easter, but overall movement was limited as participants remained on edge ahead of tonight’s deadline that President Trump gave to Iran or risk facing attacks on its critical infrastructure. The U.S Dollar Index is little changed at 99.99. The 10-Yr is UNCH at 4.34%. European Central Bank policymaker Wunsch opened the door to a rate hike later this month. China’s March FX Reserves reached $3.342 trln (expected $3.400 trln).
Economic Calendar Today
- 08:30 ET: Durable Orders for Feb — Expected: 0.5% | Prior: 0.0% — Important for gauging manufacturing activity and economic strength.
- 08:30 ET: Durable Orders ex-transportation for Feb — Expected: 0.5% | Prior: 0.4% — Provides a clearer picture of core industrial demand.
- 15:00 ET: Consumer Credit for Feb — Expected: $7.0B | Prior: $8.1B — Indicates consumer spending patterns and confidence.
- Earnings reporting today (afternoon): LEVI PXED
Earnings & Corporate News
Corporate news flow is light this morning, with geopolitical developments center stage. Apple’s (AAPL 256.53, -2.33, -0.9%) foldable iPhone could face shipment delays. SpaceX is considering a June roadshow for its IPO. Anthropic is in discussions to invest $200 million in a private equity venture, according to The Wall Street Journal.
There were several analyst upgrades and downgrades this morning. Arm (ARM) was downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley, tgt $150.
Arista Networks (ANET) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rosenblatt, tgt $180. Casey’s General Stores (CASY) is set to join S&P 500.
WaveFinder Signal Summary
The scan environment reflects the market’s risk-off sentiment. Continuation scans are moderately active (36), indicating some momentum opportunities, but the overall signal count is not robust. The Reversal scan is strongest with 74 signals total. DTI from the continuation scan is showing a 2LYNCH and is worth watching.
Today’s Watchlist
- DTI — 2LYNCH, Energy sector tailwind from rising oil prices, high-risk play.
- ORGO — New product, trial meets primary endpoint, high short interest, breakout above resistance level.
- MNR — Secondary offering could create temporary downward pressure, watch for a potential rebound post-offering, high volume.
- ARM — Downgrade from Morgan Stanley, watch for follow-through selling today, potential short entry opportunity.
- TLX — Q1 revenue growth, medical sector, sector relative strenght.
- BNO — Delayed 9M with energy sector on a tear, Crude Oil +2.51, +114.92.
Action Codes of the Day
CRT — With geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data, controlled risk-taking is prudent given the current market environment.
FHP — Let the market show its hand after the open, given uncertainty around the Iran situation; this approach helps avoid early volatility traps.