Morning Dose #234: CPI Wait Game: Cautious Regime, Precision Entries – Wednesday 3/25/2026

Welcome to Wave Rider Morning Dose. Everything you need before the bell. Let's dive in. Good morning, traders. Let's get you ready. Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm. Yeah, because today's regime is cautious, not confident, and the gun isn't fired yet. Right. Exactly. We're coiled like a sprinter at the blocks. Mm-hmm. So, S.A. regime, cautious. Breath is 42% above the 50-day M.A., up from 39%. Oh, that's interesting. Improving. Like, yeah, and overnight, modest Asia gains, muted Europe, U.S. futures flat to plus 0.2%. Right. Wait, no pre-market earnings? Nope. Zero. Honestly. So today's moves are pure macro reaction. Mm-hmm. Got it. Yeah. Today's calendar, CPI, consensus 3.1% year over year. Then PCE and Fed speakers, Bullard, Williams, Barr. Okay so and after close reports NVDA AMD maybe Meta Those could shape next day action Right right And that why we not trading blind We're... Waiting. Exactly. And look, the breath trends improved for three days in a... Yeah, but hold on. If breath's up, why is the regime still cautious? Hmm, good question. Because it's latent strength, not active conviction. Ah, there's the nuance. Mm-hmm. I mean, like tech and comm services are the only sectors with positive five-day ATR, plus 1.2% and plus 0.9%. Meanwhile, utilities and real estate are down, negative 0.6% and negative 0.7%. So the market's pricing in a Fed pause, 62%. Odds. Right, exactly. And if CPI beats, that number flips fast. Right. So the sales are up, but we're still waiting for the wind. Right Here the thing Today playbook is precision not speed Okay so what are the high conviction setups NVDA breakout above institutional volume surging AMD reversal at $108.20, retail and algo buying, clean bounce. Wait, so you're long both? Isn't that? Crowded? Well, not both at full size, no way. Think partial entries, not swing trades, scaling in strategically, not all in, and not at the same time. Sure. Oh, wow, that's really clean. TSLA rejection at $178.40. RSI divergence, bearish confluence. Oh, wow, that's textbook clean. Exactly. Action code, cautious. Selective entries. 50% size, tight stops. So basically, if we gap up greater than 0.5%, fade the initial momentum, wait for the pullback, and gap down greater than 0.7%, Lean into tech and energy strength. That where the conviction lives Mm Got it And meta No breakout structure no volume confirmation Right So no trade That okay I'd rather be 100% ready than 50% wrong. Yeah, exactly. Patience is the strategy today. Mm-hmm. Because the best trades start with a plan, not a panic. Yes, and the gun hasn't fired yet. Right. You know what? So here's your takeaway. Review your watch list through the cautious lens. Lock in risk, but don't over-leverage the lull. Wait for the gun to fire, not the gun to sound. Because today's CPI might not move the needle, and if it does, it's probably a false break, so we wait for confirmation. But tomorrow's, that's where the real action lives. Mm-hmm. Exactly. Thanks for the prep, Algenib. Anytime. Let's get to work. This is WaveRider Morning Dose. Stay sharp, stay patient, and we'll see you on the other side of the bell. Mm-hmm. Peace. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Morning Dose. Everything you need before the bell. See you next time.