Morning Dose #233: Before the Bell: Cautious Bullish, Fed Pricing, and NVDA Catalyst – Tuesday 3/24/2026

Welcome to WaveRider Morning Dose. Everything you need before the bell. Let's dive in. Good morning, traders. Let's get you ready. What if the market's strongest sectors are already pricing in the next Fed cut, not the next CPI print? Let's decode the regime before the bell. Mm-hmm. Exactly. We're in a cautious bullish regime. 32% of stocks above the 200-day MA. Strong structure, but tactical caution. Yeah. Overnight, Asia and Europe ticked up modestly. U.S. futures? Flat. S&P plus 0.02%. NASDAQ minus 0.01%. Consolidation. Not exhaustion. Just waiting. Wait. Flat? Really? Oh, yeah. Hold on, CPI and PCE? And Powell and NVDA? That's intense. Right, and today's calendar? Light on data, heavy on nuance. CPI YOY at 2 versus 2 expected PCE Core MOM at 0 and Powell at 1 p That's the anchor. Like actual pricing, not just hopes. Oh, wow. So the market's not just watching inflation. It's already pricing and rate cuts, not just slower tightening. Exactly. And here's the kicker. NVDA reports after close. Implied move? 0.15%. That's the only earnings event that moves the needle today. Got it. But while the macro backdrops steady, the internal picture tells a different story. Mm-hmm. Five-day breadth trend? Deteriorating. Down 3.2% from peak. Short-term exhaustion. Wait, how's the S&P still holding its 50-day MA? Oh, that's the thing. Leaders. Tech plus 1.1% ATR. Com services plus 0.9%. Laggards. utilities minus 0.6%, real estate minus 0.5%, capitals rotating, not fleeing growth, but demanding duration growth Hmm so it not that growth dead I mean it still there you know It just that investors want growth timed right Right right And that where the Fed pricing comes in Markets now price in 5.5% peak rates, two cuts by year-end, 78% chance of one cut by December. So yeah, it's not about if rates go down, it's about when they're expected to. Exactly. Okay, so where do we act? Not with momentum, but with precision. Here's the playbook for today. Yeah. Cautious bullish means selective. Offensive on breakouts, defensive on pullbacks. Top scan signals, NVDA at $118.50, breakout above 50-day EMA, MSFT at $422, retest of prior high, QQQ at $398, intraday support, and TLT at $104.20, resistance flip, and VIX at 12.8, tight stops, low drag. Oh man beat VIX at 12 That huge Means we can afford aggressive stops not wide swings Exactly So if we gap up greater than 0 wait for pullback into 15 EMA Don chase If we gap down greater than 0.4%, mean reversion into $396.50 on QQQ by 9.45 AM. So it's not about predicting the gap, it's about how you respond to it. Mmm, precision timing. High conviction, low drag. That's the edge. And let's be real, this isn't about hitting home runs. It's about hitting singles on time in the right spot. Yeah, like a sniper adjusting for wind. Small corrections matter more than raw momentum. So, scan your watch list against today's levels, then wait for the setup, not the hype. Right. Precision beats prediction. Always. Good luck out there, traders. And remember, the best moves aren't loud. They're tight. We'll see you on the other side, or at least we hope to. WaveRider out. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Morning Dose. Everything you need before the bell. See you next time.