Midday Wave #87: Froth Flushed, Trend Intact: Reading Today’s Breadth Reset – Thursday 8/13/2026

Welcome to Wave Rider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. Short-term breath just dropped 48 points since the open. Before anyone calls us a rollover, let's check the regime. Okay, so how's it look versus this morning? Honestly, mixed, cooling, but intact. The 40 SMA breath is at 59.97%, barely down from 60.66. So basically the intermediate trend? Held, yeah, look, that's the through line. The short-term measure though. Mm-hmm, that's the ugly one. You know what, the 20 SMA fell from 126% all the way down to 78. Oh man, like whoa, that's the 48 point drop. Here's the thing, that's it. Fast unwind of the froth. Right, right, right, and sentiment. Cooled one notch, very bullish down to bullish. Sure, mm-hmm, what about the bull bear count? So yesterday it was 308 bulls against 163 bears. Today, bull 4% at 151 bear 4% at 98. Oh wow, half the bulls basically. Participation's thinning, not breaking, thinning. Yeah, like a party that's still going but half the guests quietly left. Exactly that. The vibe holds, the room's just emptier. Exactly, so the trend holds but fewer names are carrying it. Where's that showing up in the stocks themselves? Well, look at Arby Rock, it's up 6.4% at 102.95. Okay, that's a breakout. Is it though? Arvy well is just 0.6. Mm-hmm. Ooh, light volume. A sprinter crossing the line in the crowd isn't cheering. The results there, the energy isn't. Yeah, totally. Huh, and P pan. Pandora's at 117.39 up 5.4% RVOL 0.7. Modestly better support but same story. Right, right. So what's the tell then? APP, the key divergence. The prior leader. Down 4.77% from the open, sitting at 303.76, RVOL 1.31. That's after a price target cut. Oh, man. Wait, so a flagship software name is cracking on real VOL? On real volume. That's the canary in the software coal mine. Right. Ooh, okay. Any names moving with actual conviction? Yeah, and this is where it gets interesting. USIO's up 6.73% from the open on RVOL 12.79. 12.7, that's massive. After a raised guidance number and CURA and ESSC both got added on earnings beats. Yeah, nice. So the fundamentals are driving those. Right. But the flip side, SCORs down sharply on RVOL 6.79 after an earnings miss. Ooh, I mean, so the market's sorting winners and losers. Sorting hard. And on the institutional side, SPICX is sitting at supply with 870 funds, up 10.49% on funds. Oh, wow. That's the bank co-siding the loan. Exactly. Someone with deeper pockets believes it. ZTG2, RVOL 7.02, flagged for momentum. Right. So volumes telling two different stories in software. What does that mean for how we trade the rest of the day? Look, stay in the trend, but get selective. The 20 SMA flush demands it. Mm-hmm. So not defensive. Not defensive. Cautiously constructive. The 40 SMA near 60% keeps the bias intact. Yeah. More check your gear than batten the hatches. That's exactly it. The storm hasn't hit. Conditions just call for tighter footing. Right. Okay. So what are the two tails into the clothes? RBRK. Watch for volume expansion. If that RVOL climbs off 0.6, the breakout confirms. Mm-hmm. And if it doesn't? Then it's just a light volume drift. And the second one. Apps fade. Apps fade. That tells you whether software leadership holds or rotates out. Yeah. So trade the confirmed names, not the whole. Not the whole tape, precisely. All right. Intermediate trend intact. Short term froth flushed and leaderships getting sorted in real time. Watch RBRK's volume and apps price into the clothes. That's your next regime signal. We'll catch you on the next wave. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Midday Wave. Your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.