Midday Situation Check
Bearish regime confirmed — 40SMA breadth at 53.75% (down from 56.23% yesterday, -2.5pp), while 20SMA breadth collapsed to 28% (down from 61%, a brutal -33pp swing). Sentiment 4% flipped from Very Bullish to Bearish.
Market Recap — Session So Far
Index-level tape is unavailable today, but the internal read is decisively risk-off despite pockets of mega-cap strength — the story is a breadth washout under the surface.
- SPY, QQQ, and IWM price and technical levels are (data unavailable) — no index levels to anchor to, so we lean entirely on breadth and single-name flow.
- Breadth deteriorated hard: Bull 4% cratered to 66 from 398 yesterday, while Bear 4% climbed to 150 from 174 — that’s a violent one-day shift in participation.
- Short-term breadth (20SMA) at 28% is now well below the 40SMA at 53.75%, telling us the near-term selling is broad even as the longer trend hasn’t fully broken.
Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP
- The standout is GOOGL at $354.20, +6.2% (RVOL 0.8), with GOOG at $354.00, +6.1% right alongside — mega-cap internet is single-handedly propping the tape. Leveraged play GGLL ripped +12.3% to $109.01.
- New SIP entries skew constructive on earnings: COHU at $46.45 is up +8.11% from the open (RVOL 2.18) on better-than-expected Q2 (CHIPS), and SPXC at $199.12, +3.77% from open after raising FY26 guidance (MACHINE).
- Follow-through is narrow — outside the Google complex, continuation names like ABBV ($252.62, -1.9%) and AWI ($173.38, -0.6%) are fading, confirming the breadth data over the headline strength.
Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study
- Continuation: GOOGL/GOOG are the only signals holding real momentum since open; the broader 21-signal list is mixed with AMP +0.4%, MSI +0.7%, DUOL +0.6% barely green and CASH +0.5% flat — this is a two-stock rally, not a wave.
- SIP movers: Guidance is a clean divider — NWL ($5.14) and CCJ ($88.18, +1.61% from open) raised FY26, while TBBK ($64.78, -4.52% from open) cut Q4 EPS guidance and PRM ($37.25) posted worse-than-expected Q2. NUWE ($4.45) dropped -13.42% from open on an offering — avoid.
- 20% Study: The 07-30 list is dominated by leveraged/ETN products (SK, SKHL, LABX, LITU, IRE) rather than clean institutional single names — a divergence signal. The one to respect is MAIR ($29.12), BUILDING, with RVOL 4.86, 124 funds and 30.41% fund ownership, sitting under daily supply at 31.64–32.675.
Sector Read
- Technology (RSPT) is the laggard at -1.17, 10th percentile — the internal weakness contradicts the Google headline and is the tell for caution.
- Consumer Discretionary (RSPD +0.51, 85th pct), Energy (RSPG +0.85, 85th pct) and Communication Services (RSPC -0.10, 83rd pct) are the relative-strength pockets; Financials (RSPF +1.57) remains the highest absolute reading.
Quick Takes & Wrap-Up
- GOOGL — watch $354.20 as the pivot; holding above keeps the mega-cap bid intact, a fade back under it pulls the last leg out from the tape.
- COHU — with a 9.21% gap and price at $46.45, the open is the line in the sand; holding the +8.11%-from-open gain keeps the CHIPS breakout alive.
- MAIR — $29.12 into daily supply at 31.64; needs volume to clear that shelf, otherwise it’s a fade back toward the 20% breakout base.
- Overall bias: Defensive. With 20SMA breadth down -33pp to 28% and Bull 4% gutted to 66, this is a narrow, two-name rally masking broad selling — Always Be in Control (ABC) and keep risk tight (CRT). Favor confirmed earnings winners (COHU, SPXC) over chasing the index-level strength that isn’t even measurable today.
Action Codes in focus: ABC (Always Be in Control) and CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) — a breadth washout day is for capital preservation, not aggression.