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Midday Wave #45 Bearish

Midday Wave #45: Regime Flip: Market Sentiment Collapses to 4% – Wednesday 5/13/2026

May 13, 2026 3:34
Episode Summary
The market regime has flipped as short-term sentiment crashes to 4% and breadth contracts sharply. While Technology remains the sole strong sector, analysts advise abandoning aggressive breakout strategies in favor of consolidation monitoring.
Key Takeaways
  • Breadth crashed with 20SMA coverage dropping 35 percentage points.
  • 40SMA breadth fell 8.8 points to 50.1%.
  • DMRC surges 10.1% leading top continuation signals.
  • JD and ARW show strength on earnings and buyback news.
  • Technology sector RSPT hits 100th percentile rank.
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Midday Situation Check

Bearish regime — Sentiment 4% at 4% and Sentiment 40SMA at Bearish, with % Above 40 SMA dropping to 50.1% from 58.93% yesterday.

  • Breadth deteriorated significantly as % Above 20 SMA plummeted to 68% from 103% yesterday, a decline of 35 percentage points.
  • The Bull/Bear 4% ratio shifted to 208 bulls against 233 bears, confirming the shift in short-term market control.
  • Longer-term 9-month sentiment remains constructive with 47 bulls versus 27 bears, despite the immediate intraday weakness.

Market Recap — Session So Far

Mid-session snapshot shows a broad retreat in technical health with no index price data available for SPY, QQQ, or IWM.

  • Market breadth has collapsed, with the percentage of stocks above their 20-day moving average falling sharply from 103% to 68%.
  • The number of stocks trading above their 40-day moving average has contracted by 8.8 percentage points, sliding from 58.93% to 50.1%.
  • Volume and price action suggest a fading morning rally, as evidenced by the steep drop in stocks holding key moving averages.

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

  • DMRC leads the top 10 continuation signals with a 10.1% price increase and 0.7 RVOL, signaling strong relative strength in Software.
  • JD.com (JD) posted a 1.71% gain from the open after reporting better-than-expected Q1 results, driving a 2.28 RVOL spike.
  • Arrow Electronics (ARW) announced a $1B buyback, creating a positive sentiment entry despite a slight 0.16% drop from the open.

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

  • Technology sector strength is highlighted by RSPT at 5.23, rising to a 100th percentile rank with a 0.38% daily change.
  • Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) and Communication Services (RSPC) are falling, with values at -1.69 and -0.69 respectively, weighing on breadth.
  • 20% Study signals from yesterday show LITE at $992.37 and COHR at $374.01 holding institutional interest with high fund participation.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

  • DMRC — Watch the $9.81 level for afternoon continuation as it leads the top 10 with a 10.1% surge.
  • RSPT — Monitor the 5.23 value as the primary indicator for Technology sector health and breadth recovery.
  • Overall bias remains cautious as the 35-point drop in 20-day breadth suggests a need for consolidation before further upside.
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