Midday Wave #4: Index Up, Average Stock Down — The NVDA Print That Changes Everything – Thursday 2/26/2026

Welcome to WaveRider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. The S&P 500 is up nearly 1% and just reclaimed a key technical level. So why is the average stock in the index actually losing money right now? One stock is up 31% today on nine times normal volume. And the most important thing I can tell you about it is why you probably shouldn't touch it. And why is every serious trader watching one number after the bell tonight? This is the WaveRider midday wave. Let's get into it. Oh, that 31% one's a story. Just wait. The S&P is up 0.8% and just reclaimed its 50-day moving average. That sounds like a healthy rally. What does the data underneath that actually look like? Okay, so here's the thing. S&P 500 sitting at $6,895.87, up 0.8%. And yeah, we did reclaim that 50-day moving average, which is technically significant. NASDAQ's up 1.2%, actually approaching positive year-to-date territory. Russell 2000 up four-tenths, mid-capped 400 up three-tenths. On paper, looks pretty brad, right? Right, but I'm guessing the underneath tells a different story. Completely different story. The equal weight S&P is down 0.1%. That's a 90 basis point divergence between cap-weighted and equal-weighted. And here's what I think most people are missing about that number. Only three S&P 500 sectors are trading more than 0.1% above baseline. This isn't a broad rally. This is a handful of mega-cap names dragging the index higher while the rest of the market sits on its hands. So the scoreboard is lying to us a little. Exactly. And the breadth numbers make it even clearer. 62% of stocks are above their 20-day moving average, but only 51.99% are above the 40-day. That longer-term picture is barely above the bearish threshold. Bull 4% sitting at $221 versus bear 4% at $238. So bears still outnumber bulls on the internal scorecard even on a green day. So bears are still winning the internal vote even while the index is up. Right. Tech at plus 1.9% and semis at plus 1.7% are basically doing all the heavy lifting. It's like a basketball team winning by 20, but only one player scored Impressive on the scoreboard fragile if that player fouls out And that player reports earnings tonight But before we get there the index is being carried by a handful of names Which individual stocks are moving with real institutional backing? And which ones are setting traps for retail traders chasing headlines? That's the momentum radar. Next. And the trap one is very much a trap. Okay, so walk me through what a clean setup actually looks like today. Because I want to get to the RRGB thing. 31% is 31%. That's not nothing. I know. I know. But this is exactly why I want to show you the contrast first. LSTR up 6.5% at $153.73. Controlled 0.4 times relative volume. Tight risk rating. 0.4 ATR percent monthly. This is what institutional backing actually looks like in transportation. And here's the thing nobody's talking about. industrials have a quiet positioning score of plus 2.85. If you look past all the NVDA noise, there might actually be a rotation play developing there. Like a marathon runner, less flashy, more likely to finish. That's exactly it. Versus RRGB, which just blew up in the first lap, up 31.1% on 9.3 times relative volume. That volume spike, that's an exhaustion signal, not a new trend entry. But 31% is 31%. Isn't there a momentum argument for chasing that? Look, the volume tells you everything. At 9.3 times normal volume, you're not getting in early. You're getting in after everyone else already got in. That's not a setup. That's a handoff. It's like a sprinter who went out way too fast in the first 200 meters. Impressive? Sure. But watch for the fade. Okay, that makes sense. Now Coinbase is the best performer in the entire S&P 500 today. What's driving that, and is it sustainable into the afternoon? COIN up 13.28% to $183.54, best S&P performer. It's a double wave setup, stock trading expansion announcement plus Bitcoin rebounding 7.5%. But here's the thing, this is speculative risk appetite, not broad market confidence. The afternoon continuation thesis depends entirely on Bitcoin holding its gains. If crypto fades, coin fades with it. Exactly. So you got one clean setup in LSTR one exhaustion signal in RRGB one speculative outlier in COIN And honestly the whole session today feels like it just waiting for tonight That exactly it Everything is pre Invidia reports after the bell and the breadth picture we just described makes this print more dangerous than usual. Let's get into it. Yeah, and this one matters more than most people realize. NVDA is at $197.29 heading into after hours. Walk me through exactly what traders need to know going into that print. So key support is at $193. That's a 2% gap to the downside if the numbers don't clear a very high bar. And here's what's different about this print specifically. Only 51.99% of stocks are above their 40-day moving average. There is no broad base to absorb a shock if NVDA disappoints. The market is one bad earnings report away from losing its footing. But NVIDIA almost always beats. Why is this print different from the last five? See, that's the wrong question. The question isn't whether NVDA beats. They almost certainly will. The question is whether the guidance is strong enough to justify where the stock is trading right now. That's a much harder bar. And recent mega cap earnings reactions show the market is not giving anyone a free pass. It's like the market has been studying all semester on the assumption AI spending stays strong. And tonight we find out the grade. And the sector picture today is basically telling two completely different stories about that. Right, you've got this bifurcated setup. Tech leading at plus 1.9% and semis at plus 1.7%. Those are the AI spending bulls. But ITB down 3.7% after a major home improvement retailer guidance miss. That's the consumer caution bear. Housing and AI are telling two different stories about where the economy is going. That's a pretty ugly split for one session. And consumer discretionary's plus 1.05% gain? Entirely mega cap driven and misleading. It's like a class average pulled up by one student who scored 100. Doesn't tell you how the rest of the class did. Oh, and watch ORCL up 2.45% post upgrade as the secondary AI beneficiary. If NVDA prints well, ORCL is your sympathy move. And expect volume to dry up into the close. lighter tape, wider spreads, exaggerated moves in either direction. Smart Money is stepping back and waiting So narrow breath a binary event after the bell and volume drying up into the close Let build the afternoon playbook Specific levels specific actions Exactly what disciplined traders should be doing right now Okay, so the levels first. S&P 500 holding above the 50-day at 689587 is the first line of defense. A close below that level on NVDA disappointment would be technically damaging. Signals the Reclaim failed. NVDA-193 is the key support. Watch that in after hours. A break below triggers sympathy selling across the AI complex, ORCL included. And for the individual setups we talked about. LSTR at 153.73 remains the cleanest risk-defined setup if you want afternoon exposure. Tight stop, controlled volume, institutional backing. For coin, the continuation thesis holds only if Bitcoin maintains its rebound. If crypto fades, you already know what happens. Bottom line, what does a disciplined trader actually do differently this afternoon? So the first thing, and this is the one most people skip, check your NVDA exposure before 3.30 and size it for a 5% gap in either direction. If you can't hold that, you're already too big. Reduce it now. Then, and this is separate, watch the S&P close. If it closes below $68.95, the 50-day reclaim failed. That's the signal regardless of what NVDA does. And then, honestly, just set your alert at $193 and step away. That level changes the conversation for the entire AI complex. The breath weakness means there's no cushion here. Tonight, discipline matters more than conviction. It's like poker. Exactly. Smart money folds early and waits for the river card to be revealed. And honestly, just let the print do the talking tonight. Don't try to be clever. Mark your levels. S&P 50-day at $68.95.87. NVDA support at $193. Size your exposure to what you can hold through a gap. And let the NVDA print tell you what the market actually thinks about AI spending. Don't try to front-run it. We'll have the full post-earnings breakdown in tomorrow's session. This has been the WaveRider Midday Wave. Stay sharp. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.