Midday Wave #33 Bearish

Midday Wave #33: The Breadth Fault Line – Thursday 4/23/2026

April 23, 2026 2:33

Tickers Mentioned

Episode Summary

Breadth collapsed 41 points in under an hour—was it a technical bleed or the start of a regime shift? Host and analyst dissect the signal, the data, and what comes next.

Key Takeaways

20SMA breadth plunges to 38% from 79% — bearish signal
ADI leads breakout momentum at +6.6% with RVOL 0.7
DOW earnings beat supports midday rally
WEX drops on Q1 results despite RVOL 2.57 surge
Funds concentrated in CHIPS and Finance sectors

Midday Wave Update — April 23, 2026

WaveRider midday report for the 2026-04-23 session. Data as of 12:24 ET.

Midday Situation Check

Bearish regime — 40SMA breadth at 70.09% (down 0.31pp from 70.36% yesterday), 20SMA at 38% (down 41pp from 79% yesterday), sentiment 4% Very Bearish.
4% Bull/Bear split flipped sharply: Bull 4% dropped from 268 to 107 (−60.1%); Bear 4% rose from 105 to 385 (+266.7%).

Market Recap — Session So Far

SPY, QQQ, IWM data unavailable per Index Prices & Technical Levels — no actionable intraday levels confirmed.
Market breadth deterioration: Bull 20% fell to 38 (from 13 Bear 20%), 30bull/61bear 9M reading confirms long-term bearish skew.
Volume pace: live SIP volume and RVOLs suggest institutional activity remains elevated in selected names (e.g., WEX RVOL 2.57, DOW RVOL 0.97).

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

Strongest breakout: ADI at $406.64 (+6.6%) with RVOL 0.7 and Inst flag — best performer in top 88 signals, CHIPS sector.
New SIP entries at midday: DOW (+0.81% from open) with RVOL 0.97 and Funds up 1478; WEX (+3.76% from open) post-Q1 drop with RVOL 2.57.
Morning breakout follow-through mixed — CAT (+4.0%, RVOL 0.8) holding strongly; COHU (+3.1%, RVOL 0.3) fading slightly post-open.

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

Strongest Continuation signal holding since open: ADI (+6.6%) with RVOL 0.7, Inst alignment — aligns with 4h breakout pattern in CHIPS sector.
SIP movers gaining traction: LUCD (+1.55% from open) post-offering, RVOL 1.45; TZOO (+2.04% from open, RVOL 0.94) on EPS beat.
20% Study signals on 4/22: FGI (pct_20_wk), FTAI (dollar_d20_wk), ERAS (pct_20_wk) — all with ADR >20%, but no live midday confirmation yet.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

ADI — key level to watch for afternoon session: $410 resistance — 52w high at $420.37, high_52w_pct 2.34.
CTOS — breakout candidate holding above $8.70 — RVOL 0.6, +3.7% today, Finance sector, Inst alignment not yet confirmed.
Overall bias: bearish short-term — breadth collapse 40SMA/20SMA confirms trend slowdown; upside likely capped at 10:30 AM levels, favor pullback entries with tight stops.

Welcome to WaveRider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. Breath collapsed midday, 41 percentage points in under an hour. What just... Whoa, hold on. Was that the 20 SMA or 40 SMA? Like 20 SMA. It dropped 41 points in 45 minutes, like straight line collapse. Mm-hmm. Yeah, I mean, I literally looked at the breath chart and said, whoa, that's not a dip. That's a fault line. Right. Okay, so right. So morning regime was cautious at 48% above SMA 40. Wait, was it 48 or 49? Let me check. Ah, 48.2%. So basically, okay, so it started cautious and now it's, what, panic? Oh, man. Honestly, it's not panic yet. It's confusion. Look at the volume. Light, inconsistent. Yeah. You know what? Yeah, exactly. No conviction. And the breadth divergence is still holding. 200 stocks above 200 SMA, but the index is down 2.1%. Mm-hmm. Look, right. So the real question is, is this a technical bleed? Hmm If it holds below 45 above SMA 40 by 2 p Right Then we looking at a new bearish Bearish regime exactly Not just a dip. And if breadth stays below 40% for two sessions, that's a structural break. Got it. So let's say it does break. What's the first signal to? I mean, the 10-day volatility spike on the VIX, especially if it flips above 22 and stays there. Right, right. Oh, wow. Mm, and what if it doesn't? Here's the thing. Then we get a bounce, maybe to 46, 47% above SMA 40, but it'll be weak, like short covering, not real conviction. Yeah, totally. Yeah, and you'd see it in the sector rotation. Tech holding, industrials. Industrials lagging, exactly. So the afternoon adjustment, it's not about if, it's about how fast the regime flips. Oh, wow. So what's your call? I'm staying neutral for now, but I'd add a 5% hedge if it closes below 44% above SMA40. Solid. Thanks for walking through it. This was super helpful. Anytime. Just watch the breath clock. It's ticking. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Midway Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.

Next Day Prep #247 Bullish

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Midday Wave Update — April 23, 2026

Midday Situation Check

Market Recap — Session So Far

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

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