Back to Podcast
Midday Wave #30 Neutral

Midday Wave #30: Regime Shift: Bullish, But Cooling – Monday 4/20/2026

April 20, 2026 4:17
Episode Summary
The market’s morning Very Bullish regime cooled into a neutral-bias afternoon as retail fled and institutions accumulated. We break down where breadth, momentum, and sentiment diverged—and which breakouts still have real fuel.
Key Takeaways
  • RSPT at 2.99 leads sector momentum with rising trend.
  • Breadth correction: 40SMA up 0.9pp to 74.79%, 20SMA down 70pp to 90%.
  • ATOM and AEYE show strong RVOL breakout continuation.
  • 20% Study confirms institutional accumulation in IREN and AXTI.
  • Sentiment downshift from Very Bullish to Bullish (151/104).
0:00 / 4:17

Midday Situation Check

Use EXACT numbers from [Market Breadth] data above. Example format: Bearish regime — 40SMA breadth at 27.4% (down from 28.4% yesterday), 20SMA at 22%.

Use EXACT numbers from [Market Breadth] data above. Example format: Bearish regime — 40SMA breadth at 27.4% (down from 28.4% yesterday), 20SMA at 22%.

Bullish regime — Sentiment at 4% (Bullish), 40SMA breadth at 74.79% (up 0.9pp from 73.92% yesterday), 20SMA at 90% (down 70pp from 160% yesterday).

Market Recap — Session So Far

Midday snapshot: SPY/QQQ data unavailable; session defined by sector rotation and high-conviction small-cap momentum.

  • Index prices and SMA levels unavailable for SPY/QQQ/IWM — no actionable intraday levels to reference.
  • Market breadth: Bull 4% = 151 vs Bear 4% = 104 (down from 566/119 yesterday), reflecting a sharp reversal from Very Bullish to Bullish sentiment.
  • Volume pace not quantified — no data on vs. 20d average provided.

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

  • RSPT (Technology) continues rising — current value 2.99, percentile rank 100, +0.25% daily change, RVOL not reported in this section.
  • AEYE ($7.23, +1.7%, RVOL 0.2) and ATOM ($5.95, +11.3%, RVOL 0.6) show high-RVOL follow-through in SIP live list — both with strong intraday gap-filling momentum.
  • SIDU ($5.35, -5.14% change from open, RVOL 0.91) shows fading breakout — price below opening level despite strong w52 low% (752.18).

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

  • RSPT remains strongest continuation signal — +0.25% today, trend “rising”, percentile rank 100 — no data on intraday failure.
  • New SIP entries this morning: MODD ($5.86), PASG ($11.67), UAL ($101.80) — all marked bearish sentiment or regulatory headwinds.
  • 20% Study confirms institutional buying in IREN ($48.12, +58.49% funds increase) and AXTI ($82.56, +30.99% funds increase) — both in Financial and CHIPS sectors, zone context = “between” with near-term demand zones.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

  • RSPT — key sector momentum indicator; a break above 3.00 would confirm strong continuation signal.
  • ATOM — +11.3% move with RVOL 0.6 suggests institutional participation; watch for >$6.20 for confirmation of breakout.
  • Neutral bias for afternoon — breadth remains elevated (74.79% above 40SMA), but sentiment has reverted sharply from Very Bullish; risk management prioritized over aggressive positioning.
Share:

Find momentum stocks in milliseconds

Try WaveFinder