Midday Wave #3: Hollow Core: NVIDIA’s Make-or-Break Night | WaveRider Midday Wave – Wednesday 2/25/2026

Welcome to WaveRider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. The S&P is up 0.8% today. The average stock is actually negative. That gap between what the index says and what most portfolios feel is the entire story of the session. And tonight, one earnings call decides whether that gap closes or blows wide open. This is the WaveRider Midday Wave. Right. What are the indexes actually showing us right now? OK, so we've got the S&P reclaiming that 50-day moving average at 5,896. That's technically significant. NASDAQ up 1.2%, knocking on positive year-to-date territory. Dow's up 6 tenths. Russell 2000 and the mid-cap 400 both just flipped green for the year. So it sounds like broadening participation and the starters are tired. Yeah. And that's, I mean, that's exactly the tension. Think of it like a basketball team winning by 20, but only two players scored. The box score looks great until you realize how fragile the lead actually is. Right, and those two players are about to play overtime tonight. But the equal weight is telling a different story. Walk us through that divergence. Exactly. Equal weight S&P is negative one-tenth of a percent, while the mega cap growth ETF is up 1.3. That is, honestly, that's the widest intraday divergence of this entire rally attempt. That's the widest we've seen in this whole rally attempt? Widest of the entire attempt, yeah. So you've got this hollow core where, like, the surface metrics look fine, but the foundation is still shaky. But 78% of stocks above their 20-day moving average, I mean, that sounds pretty healthy. Are you sure this isn't just a normal tech-led day? I hear you. And on the surface it is. But I'd push back a little on that framing. The 20-day is a short window. The 40-day SMA is still bearish, and that's where institutional positioning actually lives. So, yeah, healthy-ish. But I wouldn't hang my hat on it. The short-term money is bullish. The longer-term institutional money is still skeptical. So the rally is real, but it's running on a short bench. Short bench and the starters are tired. Short bench and the starters are tired, yeah. Which sectors are doing the actual work and which are dragging? Tech up 1.9% and financials up 1.6% are doing the heavy lifting. Two very different sectors united by specific catalysts. AI hardware momentum in tech, crypto tailwinds in financials. Right. ITB, the homebuilder ETF, down 3.7%. Lows down 5.66% after a guidance disaster. Ouch. Energy lagging at negative 9 tenths. Money leaving housing and energy is landing in tech and financials That concentration creates binary risk heading into the afternoon Okay so we got controlled breakouts in semis a crypto crossover nobody saw coming in financials Let's get into where the actual momentum setups are. Which names are breaking out with the kind of controlled strength that holds after the close? AMAT leading semiconductor continuation. Applied materials at 394.13 up 4.3% on halftime's relative volume. Half times volume on a 4% move. I want to sit on that for a second because that's not retail chasing. That's exactly right. That controlled advance is... That's institutions accumulating, not panic buying. Marathon runner picking up pace without breathing art. That's the setup. ATR risk at 64.7% of daily range. Healthy breakout behavior. Okay, what else? JBL surging 5.2% on 8 tenths RVOL. Electronics manufacturing riding the tech supply chain tailwind. Any surprises in today's leadership? Names you wouldn't expect to be the best performer in the S&P? Coinbase. Wait, Coinbase is the best S&P performer today? At $183.54 of 13.28%. Dual catalysts, stock trading platform launch plus Bitcoin up 7.5%, catching two waves at once. And the $180 level, is that a technical thing or is that where the crypto money came in? It's both, honestly. 180 is the key support to hold for momentum continuation. And this is feeding into the financial sector's strength. It represents a new leadership pocket beyond traditional banks. Crypto thaw money flowing into a regulated equity. What about deeper in semis and software? Is the AI balance from yesterday extending? MPWR at 1228.94, near highs, 180% gain from its lows and a 2.82 ATR multiple. Fabulous semiconductor continuation. That's a monster. A quiet monster in the AI infrastructure build-out. And software? Software extending, but modestly. ORCL up 2.45% on an Oppenheimer upgrade to outperform. Gains are real, but still microscopic relative to year-to-date losses. The AI-related bounce is alive, but not yet a recovery. And here's the thing. The same AI narrative driving AMAT, MPWR, and the software bounce is the one NVIDIA must validate tonight. So we're basically saying the same names that are the opportunity are also the risk, like AMAT is the trade and the warning at the same time. Exactly. And that concentration is, yeah, that's what makes tonight so binary. Okay, let's look at where volume is surging in unexpected places. Some of the biggest institutional footprints today are in names you might not expect. What are you seeing on the volume radar? ECG. Encore Wire at 132 3 times relative volume 3 ATR multiple 3 times volume When a quiet restaurant is suddenly packed on a Tuesday night that's what 3.88 times RVOL looks like. Institutions are showing up in force at an unexpected name. Infrastructure and construction play. This is the kind of setup that rewards attention. Absolutely. And then ACLX at 113.83, near highs, on 4.61 times relative volume, the highest RVOL alert of the session. 4.61? 4.62. Biotech with a 137% gain from lows and a tight 8.24% risk to the low of day. Episodic pivot characteristics. The volume signature suggests a catalyst-driven institutional entry, not a random spike. What about FNV? FNV at new 52-week highs, 276.60, up 101.82% from lows. Gold royalty play. But note the 0.3 times relative volume. Prices at highs, but institutional conviction is not surging. Some money is hedging the AI narrative with gold exposure. Not everyone is all in on tonight's NVIDIA print. OK, I keep coming back to Tim. Walk me through that because 84 percent revenue growth and the stock gets hit. Yeah. And that's look, that's the one that should make everyone nervous tonight. The market doesn't grade on an absolute scale. It grades on the delta between expectation and result. At premium valuations, 84 percent growth was already priced in. The market wanted 100 percent. Which is exactly the dynamic NVIDIA faces tonight. Live demonstration. Real time. If the market punishes 84% growth for missing expectations, consider what happens to the entire AI complex if NVIDIA's guidance falls even slightly short of the most optimistic scenarios. TEM is not an isolated data point. It is a preview. Okay, so ECG and ACLX are the non-correlated stories, but TEM is the number that sets the table for what we need to talk about next, the afternoon playbook and the one event that overrides everything else tonight. Right. Everything we've talked about today, the top-heavy tape, the chip breakouts, the TEM warning, it all converges on one event tonight. Walk us through the NVIDIA setup and what the levels mean. NVIDIA at 197.29 heading into the print. the single most important catalyst for the entire market tonight. NVDU, the two-times leveraged NVIDIA bull ETF, up 4.6% today. Traders are aggressively positioning for upside. The market is positioned for beat and raise. The market is positioned for beat and raise. The key levels? 193 is the support level. If guidance disappoints, that is the first line of defense. 205 is the breakout level If they deliver a clean beat with strong forward guidance that is the target for the next leg What happens in the middle if Nvidia beats but guides conservatively and the stock opens at 198 That the dangerous zone right And I want to be really clear about this because… Because the tape can't absorb ambiguity. Exactly. A stock at 198 after a conservative guide is a market that doesn't know what to do, and in a top-heavy tape, uncertainty resolves to the downside. You want a clean break above 205, or you want to be sized appropriately for 193. The middle is where traders get hurt. Why is this a binary event for the broader market, though? I mean, it's one stock. The top-heavy tape structure means there is no breath cushion. Equal weight S&P is negative today. If the five names carrying this rally stumble, there is no army of mid-caps and small-caps to absorb the blow. It's like the keystone in the arch. Exactly. Pull it out and the whole structure collapses. I keep thinking about what happened with some of the other mega caps this year when they beat. Yeah, and that's, look, that's the thing. We've seen names beat estimates and still sell off on guidance nuance. The market isn't rewarding beats right now. It's punishing anything short of perfection. Beat and raise may not be enough if the guidance range disappoints even slightly. Which is exactly what TEM just showed us. Live demonstration. And don't forget, month end is three days out. Strong print. Window dressing flows into tech. Everyone wants to show they owned NVIDIA. Disappointment? That de-risking accelerates. Rebalancing kicks in. It compounds fast. So what's the posture for the afternoon session? Managing risk into the print, not adding exposure. Respect 193 NVIDIA as the markets line in the sand. The chip breakouts in AMAT and MPWR are momentum opportunities, but size accordingly. These names move with NVIDIA after hours. Coin above 180 is the cleanest risk-defined setup in financials. ECG and ACLX are the non-correlated volume stories worth monitoring for continuation regardless of the NVIDIA outcome. So what's the one number you're watching into the close? 193. That's NVIDIA's line in the sand. Everything else is noise until we get the print. And if it holds above that? Then the chip breakouts in AMAT and MPWR have legs. If it doesn't... Then the hollow core becomes the whole story. Fast. All right. Index is up, average stock down, and one earnings call decides whether that changes. Before the close, pull up your NVIDIA correlated positions and know your number. 193 is the line. If it breaks, have a plan. That's the WaveRider midday wave. Stay sharp, manage your risk, and we'll have the full post-market breakdown after the bell. See you then. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider midday wave, your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.