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Midday Wave #24 Bearish

Midday Wave #24: Regime Shift: Breadth Collapse & Signal Reassessment – Friday 4/10/2026

April 10, 2026 3:53
Episode Summary
Breadth collapsed 28 points in under an hour, flipping sentiment bearish and forcing immediate tactical adjustments. The hosts assess which signals still hold, why no breakouts occurred, and what to watch for reversal confirmation.
Key Takeaways
  • 40SMA breadth fell to 53.46%, down 1.7pp from yesterday
  • 20SMA breadth dropped sharply to 44%, down 28pp from yesterday
  • CRDO leads breakouts at +12.2% with RVOL 1.0
  • ZNTL surges +46.36% on price target raise with RVOL 1.21
  • Sentiment flipped to bearish (4%) amid 208→102 Bull 4% drop
0:00 / 3:53

Midday Situation Check

Bearish regime — 40SMA breadth at 53.46% (down 1.7pp from yesterday’s 55.15%), 20SMA at 44% (down 28pp from yesterday’s 72%), with sentiment flipping from bullish to 4% bearish.

Market Recap — Session So Far

Market pulled back from early strength, with SPY and QQQ holding modest gains in a choppy, sector-divergent session.

  • Index data unavailable — no SPY/QQQ/IWM price or SMA levels provided in dataset.
  • Breadth decay accelerated: Bull 4% fell from 208 to 102, Bear 4% rose from 178 to 223.
  • Volume pace not provided — no comparative volume data (vs 20d avg) available in dataset.

Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP

  • Strongest continuation signal: CRDO at $121.07 (+12.2%) with RVOL 1.0 — highest % gain among top 10 signals.
  • New SIP entries: ZNTL (price target raised, +46.36% from open), MTSI (Loop Capital Buy init, +5.18% from open).
  • Afternoon follow-through: NVDA (+2.5%) and AVGO (+4.6%) showing sustained institutional buying, but NOW (-6.97%) and REPL (+0.51% vs -1.12% gap) showing mixed intraday follow-through.

Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study

  • Strongest continuation signal since open: ZNTL — +46.36% from open with RVOL 1.21, high ATR (0.34), low short float (8.57%).
  • SIP updates: GEMI (price target cut, +8.71% from open), ANGX (+1.31% from open post-offering), CIGL (-5.56% from open under new symbol).
  • 20% Study signals — all from 2026-04-09; no live 20% Study updates for today — no today’s-date breakout confirmation in dataset.

Quick Takes & Wrap-Up

  • NVDA — key level at $188.57; watch for sustain above $190 to confirm bullish momentum.
  • CRDO — above $120 (new high), watch for follow-through volume to confirm institutional accumulation.
  • Bearish bias for the rest of session — 40SMA breadth falling sharply, sentiment flipped bearish, and breadth down 28pp y/y; favor controlled risk and tight stops.
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