Midday Wave #14: Bounce or Trap? 26% Breadth Tells the Real Story | WaveRider Midday Wave – Friday 3/13/2026

Welcome to WaveRider Midday Wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. Futures are green. The tape looks better, but only 26% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages. That number is your reality check today. And here's another one. A company just announced a $300 million buyback, and the stock is still going down. That tells you, I mean, that's the whole story right there, honestly. Here's what's actually happening under the surface. Yeah, and the surface is lying to you today. Yesterday's oil-driven sell-off hit the broad market hard. Today we're seeing a bounce attempt, but the internals are telling a very different story. What are the breath numbers actually showing us? Okay, so yesterday's oil shock, that damaged breath, broadly. Today's bounce is happening on top of that damage. Only 26% of stocks are above their 20-day moving averages. So 3 out of 4 are still broken, yeah. Exactly. Three out of four. And here's the thing. Market sentiment is at 4%. 4%? That's basically zero. It's basically zero, right. That's not bullish. That's paralyzed. Traders are neither bullish nor bearish. They're just frozen. And the 40-day reading is oversold, which means this paralysis is sitting on top of already damaged confidence. That's not a setup for a sustained rally. So one sector is carrying the whole index. What does that spread actually look like? Energy is at plus 4 through RSPG Financials are down 2 Healthcare down 2 That a seven and a half point spread between best and worst Wait that OK That actually a lot It a lot And I be careful calling energy the engine today. It's more like it's the only car on the road. That's different from driving the market forward. It's like one student aced the test. The average looks better, but 74% of the class is still failing. So energy is running. Let's look at which specific names have real momentum and which ones are sending morning signals. PAYP is the one I keep coming back to today. This is an IPO debut, right? And it's gapping up nearly 19% from the 18.16 open. And the volume projection is over 12 million. That's the combination you're looking for. 12 million on an IPO date. That's the volume and momentum combination traders want to see. Exactly. And critically, it's trading its own story, completely disconnected from the oil narrative, one of the few clean setups today. OK, so a $300 million buyback and the stock is still going down? How does that even happen? That's exactly the tell. CSTM announced $300 million in buybacks, stocks still down 1.4% from open at $24.59. In a healthy market, a buyback that size moves the stock. Today, it couldn't. Wow. When good news can't move it, like that's your tell right there. Sellers are just, they're in control. And in this low environment that significant What about the energy name specifically HNRG is I mean it up 4 which sounds great But weak guidance creates a momentum versus fundamentals conflict Worth noting, not worth chasing. And KLRC, gapped down on weak Q4 guidance, now at a critical level will hit in the playbook. PAYP is clearly the volume story of the session. Let's go deeper on the risk picture, because there are two very different playbooks available today. Right. So PAYP has the clean story, but for everything else, you're choosing between two very different risk profiles. JEDT has a 4.95 times ATR multiple. The stock is moving nearly five times its normal daily range. Wait, five times? Five times, yeah. Like a car doing 500 miles per hour in a 100 mile per hour zone. And honestly, a 4.95X ATR in a 26% breath session is a very specific kind of trade. For most listeners today, TTDU is the more appropriate conversation. Tell me about TTDU. TTDU ETF has a negative 2.32 ATR multiple. It's pulled back below its average range, oversold relative to its normal movement, sitting near a weekly demand zone with only 3.06% low of day risk. It's like, I don't know, JEDT is surfing a hurricane swell. And TTDU is the Calm Lake version. Exactly. Yeah, that's exactly it. Both are valid, but you need to know which board you're on. In this breath environment, most traders should be on the lake. Okay given all of that TTDU for most people JEDT only if you know what you doing what are the actual levels I need on my screen this afternoon Three levels NBIG watch 8 supply resistance for an afternoon breakout attempt. After touching the four-hour zone, a great above with volume changes the picture. 8.67, got it. LITX, 24.20 is the key level. After 162% off 52-week lows, you know, This is where you watch for distribution, not a place to add. If it holds on any pullback, the trend is intact. If it breaks, that's an exhaustion signal. And KLC? KLC. 3.40 is critical support. The broken setup from earlier, a break below that level could accelerate selling in the name. Bottom line, is this bounce real or is it a trap? The data says trap until proven otherwise. 26% breadth doesn't lie. Defensive bias remains correct. Oil volatility is still driving session direction. Rallies should be fated, not chased. Until breath starts climbing back toward 50%, the patient is still sick regardless of what the index prints. Don't mistake a bounce for a recovery. Not until breath confirms it. The number that matters today is 26%. Futures are green, energy is running, but 74% of stocks are still underwater. Respect the data. so defensive stay on your levels don't chase it that's the wave rider midday wave stay sharp out there and we'll see you next session that's all for today's episode of wave rider midday wave your mid-session market intelligence see you next time