Midday Situation Check
Mixed regime — 40SMA breadth at 20.89% (up from 20.44% yesterday) but still deeply oversold, while 20SMA breadth slipped to 35% (down from 42%). Sentiment 4% flipped to Bullish from Bearish, even as the 40SMA reading stays Oversold.
Market Recap — Session So Far
Index tape is dark on our feed today, so we’re navigating by breadth and the scan tables — and the story is a sharp rotation into semiconductors.
- SPY, QQQ, and IWM index data are unavailable in today’s feed, so no confirmed price levels or SMA references — trade the leaders, not the tape.
- Breadth divergence: Bull 4% dropped to 106 from 130, but Bear 4% collapsed to 67 from 210 — far fewer new lows is the constructive tell despite the softer 20SMA reading.
- Longer-term breadth firm: Bull 20% at 35 vs Bear 20% at 21, and Bull 9M 14 vs Bear 9M 6 — the multi-week trend is quietly leaning bullish.
Momentum Watch — Breakout Continuation & SIP
- Strongest continuation is CRDO at $209.14, +6.7% on RVOL 0.6 — a CHIPS name with institutional backing leading the pack.
- ACLS ($121.82, +4.9%, RVOL 0.7) and COHU ($66.61, +4.6%, RVOL 0.5) round out the semi-equipment surge; COHU carries the hottest ATR expansion at 4.6.
- New SIP entry: VRT (Vertiv) at $245.38, sentiment +2 on a Wells Fargo Overweight initiation (MACHINE / Electrical-Power Equipment) — change-from-open +2.07, RVOL 0.77.
Strategy Check — Continuation, SIP & 20% Study
- Continuation breakouts skewed almost entirely to CHIPS: AEHR ($101.62, +4.3%), LSCC ($127.05, +4.0%), ADI ($395.18, +3.3%, INST), ENTG ($152.58, +2.7%, INST) and MPWR ($1371.60, +2.7%, INST) — but note RVOLs are light (0.2–0.7), so this is price leadership without heavy volume confirmation yet.
- SIP movers are mostly cautionary: BB at $8.72 (soft guidance, PT cut, RVOL 3.87), BTDR at $12.15 (Bitcoin drag, sentiment -2), and CRK at $13.82 (Hold initiation). The lone bright spot beyond VRT is STAA at $19.08 announcing a $50M buyback, though it’s -3.78 from open.
- 20% Study is dominated by ETF/ETN/CEF products (KLAG, MSTW, MULL, MRNX, FBL, CONI, SNDQ) rather than single-stock institutional momentum — that’s a divergence signal: leveraged/thematic vehicles, not broad accumulation. FBL ($36.76, RVOL 1.7) and MRNX ($144.91, RVOL 1.45) show the only real volume push.
Sector Read — Where the Money Is
- Technology (RSPT) is the clear leader, printing 1.6 at the 100th percentile with a +1.41% daily change and a steady climb since Sept 18 — this is the PLASTICS play, ride the sector winner.
- Health Care (RSPH) at 2.17, rising (49th percentile) is the only other positive-trend group, quietly firming off its Sept 10 low of 0.68.
- Laggards remain broad: Financials (RSPF) at -1.76 (5th percentile), Industrials (RSPN) -1.83, Consumer Discretionary (RSPD) -1.8, and Energy (RSPG) -0.96 and falling — money is concentrating, not broadening.
Quick Takes & Wrap-Up
- CRDO — leading semi at $209.14; watch whether it holds above the day’s momentum into the afternoon, as light RVOL (0.6) means the breakout still needs volume to confirm.
- VRT — $245.38 with a fresh Overweight; the +2.07 from open is the level to defend for the analyst-driven move to stick.
- Overall bias: cautiously constructive but selective — collapsing Bear 4% (67 vs 210) and Tech at the 100th percentile favor CHIPS leaders, but sub-1.0 RVOLs and ETF-heavy 20% Study argue for controlled risk, not chasing. Codes in focus: 2LYNCH (Continuation Breakout) and PLASTICS (Sector Winners).